Jeb Posted January 3, 2006 Report Share Posted January 3, 2006 Mike Ekster of the Upton, NY NWS office mentioned Eastern US Weather Forums in an AFD he wrote this evening. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/txtprods/OKX/AFDOKX See also this Eastern US Weather Forums thread: Props to this forum from NWS Upton http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=76673 000 FXUS61 KOKX 030300 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006 .NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)... VERY DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST ON OUR HANDS FOR TONIGHT INLAND AS COLUMN TEMPERATURES WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH EITHER SIDE OF THE 0C LINE. THERE'S REALLY NO TELLING AT ANY EXACT POINT IN TIME WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WILL BE FALLING AND EXACTLY WHERE. AS OF 02Z...REPORTS ARE GENERALLY OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE NORTHERNMOST TEAR OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...RAIN AND SLEET IS OCCASIONALLY MIXING IN. SOME AREAS ARE EVEN ALL RAIN. I REALLY DO NOT FORESEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AS LATEST RUC AND 12KM NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ISOTHERMAL PROFILES MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CENTERED RIGHT AROUND 0C. AT LEAST THE NAM HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ONTO THE COLDER SOLUTION THAT IS PLAYING OUT...AND IS NOW COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE GFS OVERNIGHT. THUS...INLAND...WILL GO WITH A FORECAST THAT PLAYS SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AND SLEET...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. MORE OF A SNOW INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SEEN ABOVE 500 FT OR SO...WITH A LITTLE LESS LOWER IN ELEVATION. I DON'T THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 32F AND ABOVE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING MESONET OBS FOR THOSE. AS FAR AS ACCUMS OF SNOW AND SLEET GO...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCALLY 4-5...WITH LESS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AT THE COAST...ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS BECOMING A CONCERN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. FOLKS AT THE COAST SHOULD NOTICE A STEADY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THINK WE'LL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY BY 12Z AS LOW GETS CRANKING TO OUR SOUTH. THANKS TO ALL OUR SKYWARN SPOTTERS...TRI-STATE WEATHER MEMBERS...ERN US WX MEMBERS...AS WELL AS GIL AT CHANNEL 8 FOR ALL YOUR TIMELY OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... STILL A VERY TRICKY FORECAST AS FAR AS TUESDAY GOES. MODEL SOUNDINGS BLO 700 MB STILL VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...WITH GFS STILL WITH A COLDER COLUMN AS A WHOLE. FOR NOW...THINKING A COLDER SOLN LIKE THE GFS IS THE WAY TO GO...WHICH IS WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWED. IT MAY BE TOUGH IN SOME AREAS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS WILL BE MET...BUT I THINK AT LEAST THE LOW END OF THE 4-8" RANGE IS STILL A GOOD BET. DEPENDS HOW MUCH SLEET/FZRA FALLS INSTEAD OF SNOW. ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GET INTO THE COASTAL AREAS BEFORE THE GOOD FORCING MOVES EAST. IT MAY NOT SNOW...BUT THINK THERE COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR ICE BY TUE EVENING EVEN AT THE COAST. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK AT THE WHOLE SUITE OF 00Z DATA AND USE THEM TO MAKE A BETTER DECISION THAN I CAN AT THE MOMENT (0230Z). DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL HEAD SLOWLY OUT TO SEA ENDING THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM AT THE COAST TUE...WITH 975MB WINDS 50+ KT. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED ISOLD HWW CRITIERA GUSTS OCCUR. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THINK THIS STILL BEARS WATCH FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AS FAR AS FROZEN PRECIP GOES...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THEN NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY WITH ONCE AGAIN AN INCREASE IN POPS. WILL GO CHANCE FOR NOW. && .MARINE... A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR VARIOUS AREAS. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUALLY OBTAINING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO DRIVE SEAS TO DANGEROUS LEVELS ON THE SOUND AND OCEAN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ACT TO PILE WATER INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE BAYS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NEW YORK HARBOR. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TUE NOON HIGH TIDES AND WELL AS FOR TUE NIGHT. THE LATTER MAY BE LOWER DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT...BUT WITH WATER ALREADY WEDGED IN...THINKING IS THAT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW LONDON AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN CT WHERE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR...BUT IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT INLAND TERMINALS (KHPN/KSWF)...WHERE SNOW HAS EITHER FALLEN ON-SITE OR NEARBY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NYC METRO AREA...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...AND SHOULD LOWER TO IFR IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MEANWHILE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST...REACHING 25G40KT BY 12Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND NOT DECREASING MUCH IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT KSWF BY 09Z BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW AFTER 15Z. KHPN WILL LIKELY SEE A SIMILAR TRANSITION BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TUE...WITH KTEB/KEWR/KBDR CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW AROUND 21Z. && .HYDROLOGY... WE ARE FORECASTING A 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS EVENT FOR THE AREA. SIX HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 1 INCH...WHICH WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM METRO NJ E ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND ACROSS COASTAL CT. STAY TUNED FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FLOOD ADVISORIES LATER TONIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CTZ005>008 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR CTZ009>012 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM WEDNESDAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ011-012 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR CTZ009-010 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ002>004 FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NJZ006 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY. NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ067-068 FROM UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ069-070 FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ072>081 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM WEDNESDAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NYZ071>081 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330 FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY. ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ330-350-353-355 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM WEDNESDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ335-338 FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY. ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350-353-355 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY. && $$ PUBLIC...EKSTER AVIATION...BG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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