EUSWX threads 2

(WEATHER53)First off we are now in the mild portion of the osciallation and it is snowing. Granted, by the weekend temps in DC metro will be around 50 but this warm cycle will feature highs some 10-15 degrees cooler than the last cycle and lows some 15-20 degrees cooler. Then between 2/8-2/10 the fun returns.
Second, today is a continuation of the winter theme of "more north..colder..and snowier" I did not see any chance of snow today, I blew it.

Also, I want to ask. Ever since my interent weather experinces began, in 2000, it seems like the dominant theme is the storms are further north than progged. Perhaps there is a winter that I am just not remembering correctly but this winter and otheres seem to trend further north than progged. Why is that? Discussions? Thanks.

Henry M exposed as a weenie and non forecaster

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=18923

The snow today, was NOT forecasted at all!!!!

NE GA/NW SC/NC/VA Obs, 2/2/05-2/3/05

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=18790

--------------------------------------------------------------

Jeb · February 4, 2005

This is amazing!!!!!

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=19004

Hey DC guys...this is the beginning!!

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=19001

WOW, AWESOME RIVER ICE PICS!!!

River Ice and Snow Pics from Jan. 30

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=18971

-------------------

Jeb · February 4, 2005

Henry Margusity's Column: February 3, 2005

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/...type=margusityh

This twerp is a friggin' weenie and a non-forecaster

POSTED: 11:33 a.m. February 3, 2005

The thoughts expressed in this column represent Henry Margusity's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating AccuWeather forecasts, the opinions of many other AccuWeather meteorologists are also considered.

This discussion is updated only the days that Henry is available, usually Monday-Friday. Check the date above and come back often!

THUR 11AM UPDATE...

I read a lot of great e-mails this morning on the up coming pattern and the current storm situation. While I may not answer everyone, I do read the e-mails, and think about some of the theory's put forth. This week has been a tough week for not only me, but many forecasters across the East due to the tendency to but into the computer models. When I think of computer models, I make the analogy that a computer model that models the weather patterns is like having a computer model that models what a slot machine will produce on each spin. While the model may say the slot machine will hit 777, the reality is the slot machines comes up with 77joker. It's close and it may have some payoff, but it does not hit the jackpot. That's where we are today in the world of computer models. The question I will put forth to you as readers, and I would like to hear your thoughts, how do we make sense of all the divergent ideas the computer models come up with and yet provide accurate forecasts to the public. I will have my answer tomorrow, and if you like, I will add in the column some of the answers from the readers. Just let me know in your e-mail if it's ok to add your answer to the column tomorrow.

On to the weather...

The surface low is along the North Carolina coast this morning while a well defined upper level low is moving across West Virginia with a patch of rain and snow. For the most part, the storm is over for western North Carolina into western South Carolina. It's having a hard time trying to turn over to snow across central North Carolina, but I think as the upper level low catches up to the surface low, we should see at least some wet snow into places like Raleigh this evening. In Virginia and Maryland, we will see some snow today, that includes DCA and BWI, but with temperatures near freezing and above, I do not expect any significant accumulations, other then coatings on grassy surfaces. I will say that any significant accumulating snow will be confined to the Virginia and Maryland mountains where 1-3 inches will accumulate. Snow will also spread through parts of western and central PA, but again, it's warm so accumulations will be hard to come by. While there can be some flakes across eastern PA, I do not expect anything but excitement for snow lovers.

Long Island and New England tonight. Radar is showing precip expanding west. Temperatures are cold enough to support snow and ice. Across eastern MA and RI, it's mainly freezing rain, sleet and snow. Central MA, CT into Central Long Island, it's mainly snow with 1-3 inches. The eastern end of Long Island, its a mix of ice and snow. NYC, you will get grazed by a little light snow later tonight, although the eastern boroughs could have an inch of snow...that's cutting it close.

By tomorrow morning, this whole mess heads off the coast and that will end this weeks saga of snow...

PLEASE SEND YOUR OBSERVATIONS IN TO henrypro@accuweather.com. THURSDAY MORNING 8AM WEATHER BRIEF

Henry

SOME THOUGHTS ON NEXT WEEK..

SHORT RANGE SNOW ISSUES AT 11AM....

I spent much of my morning trying to figure out how the pattern will evolve next week to produce a decent storm in the East. While I still believe there will be a big storm, there are many factors that point to a storm heading into the Great Lakes then the snow-starved areas of the East.

First of all, I've been watching the North American Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and learning about how the index values correlate to the weather in the East. Just looking at my own monthly stats for January, when the AO and NAO were highly negative, our temperature departures were on the cold side. When the NAO and AO values were highly positive the last part of December through mid-January, the temperature departures were on the warm side. Keep that in mind for a second.

The one feature that has been persistent most of the fall and winter, and it can be argued last summer, is the Southeast Ridge. It just seems to bounce back and show itself between beatings of the trough. Some may argue, and they will, that it has not been a factor, but if you look at the data, the Southeast and much of the South have been warm this winter as a whole.

Ok, where am I going with all of this you may ask... there's a reason why the Atlantic storm backed west and north and will produce snow across New England and rain and snow along the coast later today and tonight, the Atlantic is jammed up. It's not blocked up because of blocking over Greenland, it's blocked up because of blocking more over towards the NE Atlantic and Europe as per the 500mb anomaly chart this morning. The pattern would suggest that the blocking is not going away all that quickly, and thus our Atlantic storm may still be sitting pretty darn close to where it is now next week, and that the ridge will hold tight along the East Coast of the U.S. into next week. In addition, the Ensemble Mean Outlook for the NAO and AO index through the 16th of Feb is forecasted actually to go neutral or even positive which to me suggests that a warm pattern is setting up for the East and a colder weather pattern is setting up for the West and Plains. Given what I have seen, that would suggest that any major storm would end up cutting into the Great Lakes leaving the East Coast in a warmer and wet weather pattern, not a snowy one which I would rather see. The evolution of the weather next week suggests to me that the Baja low gets kicked out ahead of the trough this weekend and heads toward the Great Lakes. It may, in fact, kick off some severe storms in Texas given that the Gulf will be wide open next week. The East may stay dry and nice through the weekend as the warmup and rain heads up the Mississippi Valley. I will need to look at the snow cover charts and study the flooding threat in the Midwest and Great Lakes. The next jet max moves across the Rockies late in the weekend and initiates low pressure over the southern Plains Monday, driving a big storm in the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. The Euro hammers that storm, and with fresh cold air coming in across the northern Plains, it may end up being a major snowmaker for the Midwest and western Great Lakes. I think the cold air will eventually make it back into the East, but it may take until the middle of the month for any substantial cold air to come in which is a disappointment for eastern snow lovers.

Look folks, this is not any mystical forecasting, it's purely looking at the data in front of me this morning and saying, if the trend goes this way, you end up with this type of weather. Also, that Southeast ridge is just a feature that will not go away and will continue to cause great disappointments for the eastern snow lovers as we go through the last half of winter. It is also why I believe as we go through the spring and summer, it just spreads it's wings of warm into the East and South...

11AM WE TALK ABOUT THE CURRENT SNOW SITUATION....

Henry henrypro@accuweather.com

-----------------------------------------------

Jeb · February 4, 2005

This link was posted in one of the EUSWX threads today.

http://www.theslot.com/a-an.html

More on 'A' vs. 'An'

A

couple of readers took exception to an entry from The Slot's FAQ that was published in the August issue of Writer's Digest:

Is it "a historic" or "an historic"?

Do you live in an house? I didn't think so. A historic.

Not the best example or the most complete answer, I admit. My books do a better job.

From "The Elephants of Style":

For choosing a or an, spelling doesn't matter; pronunciation does. A is for consonant sounds; an is for vowel sounds. The ever-popular an historic is incorrect, at least for American speakers, because historic does not begin with a vowel sound. Even those Americans who say "an istoric" will admit that they say "historic," with the consonant h, when the word stands alone. I don't care whether "an istoric" rolls off your tongue more easily than "a historic"; you don't go altering your pronunciation of a word in order to change the article you use before it. Your comfort is none of the language's concern.

Most of the times I've heard "an historic," however, it has been from blustery types who heartily pronounce the h. Think Howard Cosell.

There is a similar entry in "Lapsing Into a Comma." The entries are absolutely correct, but they fail to address an alternative position that I did not realize was held by some published authorities.

One of my detractors cited "The Correct Word: How to Use It" by Josephine Turck Baker:

In the case of words beginning with h, an is always required when h is silent; as "an heir;" when h is aspirated, a is required, unless the accent is on the second syllable, when an is used; as "a history;" an historian."

Baker, it turns out, wrote this in the first quarter of the 20th century -- an important point, because things appear to have evolved. My reader said Baker isn't the only authority who holds this position, but he didn't name any others. I also cited numerous authorities without naming any, but I was in a (an?) hotel room, away from my books.

Now I'm back home, so here goes. (Thanks to Barbara Wallraff -- who agrees with me on this point -- for pointing me in the right direction in a later on-the-road exchange.)

I found nothing outside my inbox advocating "an historical" as correct and "a historical" as incorrect in American English.

The stylebook of the London Times calls for an hotel, an historic and an heroic. But, remember, that's British English.

H.W. Fowler (writing in British English and, near as I can tell, about the same time as Baker) says an was "formerly usual before an accented syllable beginning with h," citing an historian, an hotel, an hysterical scene, an hereditary title and an habitual offender. He continues: "But now that the h in such words is pronounced the distinction has become anomalous and will no doubt disappear in time. Meantime speakers who like to say an should not try to have it both ways by aspirating the h."

R.W. Burchfield's New Fowler's Modern English Usage, according to Wallraff's "Word Court," criticizes those who consider "an historic" pretentious and calls the issue a matter of personal preference. (I don't own, and am more than a little puzzled by the concept of, the Burchfield book. I hope to leave a legacy, but I don't want "bill walsh's new elephants of style, by justin4326@aol.com" to come out after I'm gone.)

I found one source that could be called sympathetic to "an historical" in modern written American English: The American Heritage Dictionary says "an historical" and the like are outdated but "acceptable in formal writing."

Merriam-Webster's Dictionary of English Usage is more descriptive than prescriptive, but it advises: "You choose the article that suits your own pronunciation." Theodore Bernstein gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation but allows that you should indeed say "an hotel" if you think "hotel" is pronounced "otel."

I agree with Merriam-Webster and Bernstein, but I'm writing about writing, not about speech. And, as I wrote, I think most of those Americans who think they say "istoric" and "otel" are fooling themselves.

Among the authorities on my side:

# Garner's Modern American Usage acerbically supports the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound position: "An humanitarian is, judged even by the most tolerant standards, a pretentious humanitarian."

# Patricia T. O'Conner's "Woe Is I," in so many words, gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The Chicago Manual of Style gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The Associated Press Stylebook gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The United Press International stylebook gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The Washington Post stylebook gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The New York Times stylebook gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The USA Today stylebook gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# The U.S. News & World Report stylebook gives the straight vowel-sound-vs.-consonant-sound explanation.

# Bill Bryson's Dictionary of Troublesome Words addresses a slightly different problem ("an FBI," but "a NATO") but Bryson explains himself in terms of vowel sounds and consonant sounds.

To restate my position: First you must deal with the word. Repeat after me: "Historic, hotel, hysterical, Hispanic." Did you pronounce those h's? Then it's a historic, a hotel, a hysterical, a Hispanic. If you truly said "Istoric, otel, ysterical, ispanic," go ahead and say "an." But you are in the minority. The standard pronunciations include the h, and so you must write "a."

One reader told me the syllabic stress, not the pronunciation or non-pronunciation of the h, is the point. Wrong. The point of the stress argument is to offer a rationale for why it might be easier on the tongue, when an article is present, to drop the h.

-----------------------------------------------------