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Tropical Storm LISA Discussion 43 11PM EDT


Jeb
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Tropical Storm LISA

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 300228

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004

 

A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER

...CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE IS SHALLOW WITH THE STRONGEST

CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. A 29/1657Z CIMSS AMSU

PRESSURE ESTIMATE WAS 981.7 MB AND A 29/2048Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS

REVEALED ONE 60-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTOR...SURROUNDED BY

SEVERAL 50-55 KT UNFLAGGED VECTORS...IN THE DRY SLOT REGION IN THE

SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE RAGGED EYE

FEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...

DESPITE THE MUCH LOWER DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/09. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS NOW

MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN

UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTH...LISA IS EXPECTED

TO BRIEFLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD

THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY 48 HOURS...THE

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE

TROUGH...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL

LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF

THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE THE GFDL APPEARING TO BE AN EXTREME

WESTERN OUTLIER MODEL THAT IS PRODUCING A CONSENSUS WEST BIAS.

 

THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS GRADUALLY

CLOSING. LISA HAS A SHALLOW EYE FEATURE AND WILL BE OVER 26C SSTS

FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...WHILE REMAINING UNDER VERY LOW

VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA

COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION AROUND THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE LATER

TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...

ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. BY 24 HOURS...

LISA WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C AND LOWER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING

ABOUT SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS

THAN 10 KT.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 30/0300Z 31.5N 46.2W 60 KT

12HR VT 30/1200Z 32.8N 47.0W 65 KT

24HR VT 01/0000Z 34.7N 47.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 01/1200Z 36.7N 47.0W 60 KT

48HR VT 02/0000Z 38.6N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 03/0000Z 42.5N 37.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

 

 

$$

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