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Sugarbush resort forecasts


Jeb

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http://www.sugarbush.com/winter/onmountain/weather.htm

 

Thursday, Feb 10th, Morning Update

 

*ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SHOULD MEAN 2 FEET HERE BY TOMORROW OR SATURDAY AND BEST WEEKEND OF SKIING THIS WINTER

 

Even our prediction of 10-12" from Monday was conservative from this storm and yesterday morning we updated snowfall maps to as high as 1-2 feet with this particular storm. I still think when it is all said and done, amounts here could be close to two feet by later Friday, or by early Saturday with the off and on light snow that falls following this storm. Most forecasters are predicting total amounts now around 15-18" but I think that is even too low if we include the mountain enhanced snowfall and off and on light snows into Saturday.

 

The enclosed map shows the temperatures later tonight at 5,000 feet about -12 C (10-15 degrees). This is an ideal temperature for the highest water to snow ratio content and upslope snow - and the coldest air at 5,000 feet at any point in New England. You can watch the radar tonight and how there will be a band of heavy snow along the spine of the Green Mountains as temperatures between the surface and 4,000 feet area some 10 degrees difference and moisture swings around from the Atlantic. On at least two other occasions this winter, dewpoints close to 0 degrees limited snowfall and has caused the so-so winter that much of New England has had.

 

Again, I think we will have a classic orographic situation later today and tonight, in which cold air at 3,000-5,000 feet, and relatively mild air at the low levels (25-30) result in upslope snow across the region. The storm system that will produce 3 feet of snow in parts of Maine will slow down later tonight and give us a fetch of moisture throughout the day on Friday. This will mean off and on periods of light snow tomorrow as well with strong gusty winds diminishing by afternoon. Off and on light snow will be with us Saturday with temperatures mostly in the 20's---not bad at all.

 

Amazing, the timing of this snow mirrors to a tee the 1915-1916 analog we have talked about for months and suggests more normal snowfall through February and March. If you recall, I used this analog last October because--A) El Nino; B) The coolest-wettest summer in 120 years for parts of New England; C) Similar ocean temperatures 'adjusted' for some warming that has occurred due to 'global warming'--yes, I believe in it.

 

This analog predicted 15 feet of snow in Tahoe in January; a so-so early winter for New England; heavy snows for Boston and now a return to snowfall for us.

 

Roemer

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