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National Weather at 9pm February 16 2005


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Keeping it snowy and chilly in the Great Lakes and Northeast

9:00 P.M. ET 2/16/2005


Tim Ballisty, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel




An upper-level low stubbornly stationed off the California coast continues to spread moisture inland over the Southwest. The majority of the rainfall to this point has been in central California including the Bay Area and the Sacramento Valley. With time, the moisture will spread southward to include Los Angeles and San Diego during the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The final day of the work week is anticipated to be the rainiest day with this system as it finally makes a move inland. Rainfall, heavy at times, will once again look to soak a region that really has no need for any more! The threat of mud and landslides will increase through the weekend due to the additional rainfall. The U.S. Geological Survey has issued a landslide and debris flow advisory for Southern California. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure to the north of the storm is keeping the Northwest and northern Rockies dry. Locations in the Northwest that really could use a good dosing of rain and snow will unfortunately continue to see weather systems pass them by to the north and south. The ridge is forecast to hold tough into the weekend.



An upper-level disturbance is forecast to push through the Great Lakes on Thursday producing some light snow and flurries. Accumulations associated with this disturbance should be under an inch in most locations. However, look for the possibility of significant lake-effect snow banding to set up shop southeast of Lake Ontario. A lake-effect snow watch is in effect for several counties of New York State including Oswego and Onondaga including the city of Syracuse. If healthy snow bands take shape and persist, some locations could pick up a half a foot of snow especially during the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The remainder of the Northeast should see a mix of clouds and sun with typical February temperatures. A reinforcing shot of chilly Canadian air should follow this disturbance into the Great Lakes and Northeast for the first part of the weekend.



Riding the southern jet stream, moisture from the Pacific will be forced into New Mexico and western Texas Thursday producing cloudiness and occasional showers. The remainder of the South and Southeast should have a sunny day Thursday although there will be a noticeable chill in the air compared to Wednesday’s daytime highs. Temperatures are expected to mainly be in the 50s and lower 60s, except central and southern Florida where readings should be 75 to 80 degrees. The western Texas moisture should slowly seep toward the Mississippi River with its band of cloudiness and showers Friday and Saturday, while the Southeast and Florida remain partly cloudy.



Mostly sunny skies and chilly (but for the most part typical February temperatures) should dominate much of the Midwest on Thursday. The exception will be around the Great Lakes where a weak upper-level disturbance will produce scattered snow showers. However, with the cold the northwest flow along with this same disturbance, favored lake-effect belts (including the U.P. of Michigan and northwest Lower Michigan) could pick up a moderate amount of snow with some locations nearing a foot. A lake-effect snow warning is effect for these areas for an extended period until Friday morning. Otherwise, high pressure should keep the region mainly dry through Friday.

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