Jeb Posted February 22, 2005 Report Share Posted February 22, 2005 Henry Margusity's Column: February 21, 2005 http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/...type=margusityh POSTED: 1:45 p.m. February 21, 2005 The thoughts expressed in this column represent Henry Margusity's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating AccuWeather forecasts, the opinions of many other AccuWeather meteorologists are also considered. This discussion is updated only the days that Henry is available, usually Monday-Friday. Check the date above and come back often! MONDAY 2pm Update Well the new EURO is in and it has a storm coming right up the east coast Monday. I'm trying to to control my excitement, but the 500 mb pattern on the EURO is very exciting. That's all I'm going to say on that subject... Henry Here's my new motto. I will not forecast snow and ice south of I-80 until I am absolutely sure it will happen. This winter has proven that snow and ice south of that line, with the exception of the Philly area and eastern PA has been very hard to occur. The 12z NAM is once again showing the wave cutting across the South. While it has the 850mb 0c line into North Carolina and suggest it might snow, I'm not getting drawn into that again. I think there's a better chance that it may just rain Thursday. I feel that since the season for snow is waning away, it will take a big storm to bring snow. While there is rumors of storms to come and I can see how the pattern can produce big storms, I'm not buying it yet. Although, the NAO index is rising and history has shown that many a big storm occur with positive NAO values, so at least any rumors of storms have that going for them. The GFS long range has the usual pounding east coast storms but as you know, they are on the run today and gone tomorrow. So, if I'm right in using reverse anti-snow tactics, maybe it will finally happen and the big storm occurs before the winter is over. Henry Switching gears at midday to Severe Weather.... The squall line moving across Tennessee will continue to move east but should run into lower dew points across eastern Tennessee into the western Carolina's. That will tend to weaken the line, although the 60's dew points coming up through Alabama may increase the the severe potential and actaully build the line into northern Alabama during the next 2 hours. The severe threat for wind damage and large hail will continue across northern Alabama with a weakend trend across eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia. Southern California is now under a rare severe thunderstorm watch this morning. The main threat from Los Angeles county through San Diego county will be locally flooding rains, hail and high winds. Mudslides are possible as recent rains have weakened many highsides. Henry ANOTHER WEEK AND MANY CHALLENGES.... First, south of the Mason Dixie lined it was a bust. The cold air stayed as long as it could, but the precip just never arrived until it was too late for snow. I have not had the chance yet this morning to go over the snow totals since kids are delayed for school and the driveway is covered in snow and ice. We had about 4 inches of snow with a 1/4 inch of ice on top here in State College, PA. Just a couple of points this morning, I will have more later this morning once I get into work.. 1. Almost all the models do not show the storm coming in on Thursday, so that will be something we need to address later this morning. 2. The weekend storm is gone too. Perhaps the pattern is telling us something about the weather in the East. Perhaps I should start believing winters over...not yet...just kidding. 3. The snow across New England and the Northeast will be winding down this by early afternoon. 4. Our attention heads back to the West coast where another California storm is dumping more heavy rain. That same storm may bring snow to western Texas by Thursday. HERE ARE THE BIG WINNERS OF THE SNOW CONTEST. THE VERIFICATION AT BWI WAS RAIN WITH A LITTLE SLEET MIXED IN, BUT NO SNOW... CONGRATULATIONS! Tom 0 Raymond 0 Patrick 0 Remember, send your weather observations to WXOBS@ACCUWEATHER.COM. E-mails to me should be sent to HENRYPRO@ACCUWEATHER. Your observations are read by the entire forecast operations staff at AccuWeather. Subject line should include: TIME AND LOCATION OF THE OBSERVATION...I.E 4pm Tuesday Baltimore. Thanks... Henry HenryPro@accuweather.com CSI ----------------------------------------------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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