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National Weather at 245pm May 27 2005


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Hit and miss storms

2:45 P.M. ET 5/27/2005


M. Ressler, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel




This Memorial Day weekend, temperatures though slightly below average will peak in the not-too-unbearable 60s and 70s (some 50s northern Maine). Unfortunately, a new pesky upper-level system will keep some showers in the forecast. On Saturday, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will bubble up across the entire Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, especially during the afternoon. On Sunday, any showers could be confined to Upstate New York and northern New England, giving much of the region a partly cloudy day. On Monday, a stronger system and front coming out of the Midwest could bring a new round of showers and thunderstorms to Pennsylvania, western Maryland, West Virginia and western Virginia with showers again extending across Upstate New York and northern New England. Rain and thunderstorms will push eastward across the remainder of the region Monday night and Tuesday with cool gusty northwest winds following on the heels of the rain.



With a strong active jet stream to the north of the region and weak upper-level disturbances rippling eastward across Texas and the Deep South, scattered showers and thunderstorms will snake across the region Saturday from North Carolina and Tennessee to the northern Gulf Coast and the central third of Texas. On Sunday, areas of thunderstorms will focus from the southern Plains to either side of the Georgia-Florida border, leaving the Tennessee Valley, Georgia and the Carolinas rain-free. On Memorial Day, a new front will dip southward into the Tennessee Valley and the Oklahoma-Texas Red Valley. Rain and thunderstorms will rapidly increase from the southern Appalachians and Georgia westward to southern Oklahoma and much of Texas. The South could remain active with scattered thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week. Temperatures will tend to be below average so no early season heat is on the immediate horizon.



A sprawling upper-level system and strong jet stream dominate the Midwest. Scattered showers will develop on each of the next 3 days from North Dakota and northeast South Dakota to Michigan. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit the eastern Ohio Valley on Saturday. Then late Saturday and Sunday, a new round of thunderstorms will develop from eastern Kansas into the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. On Memorial Day, the thunderstorms will shift eastward into southern Lower Michigan and the eastern Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be below average across the entire Midwest by Sunday and Monday. After a dry Tuesday, a few thunderstorms will ease eastward from the Rockies into the Plains Wednesday and Thursday along with much warmer air.



An upper-level system over Baja will bring some unusual late-May showers and thunderstorms into Arizona and southeast California this weekend while scattered thunderstorms will continue in New Mexico. Although the record heat will end this weekend, temperatures will remain well above average in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. An upper-level Pacific low will migrate into warm Oregon and then Nevada this weekend while a second upper-level low develops in southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some with hail and gusty winds, will erupt from southern Washington, Oregon and northern California to Colorado.




Several severe setups

1:40 P.M. ET 5/27/2005


M. Ressler, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel



Thanks to disturbances moving eastward along a strong fast jet stream and the daytime heating from that late May sun, a few severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging wind gusts could develop from western Upstate New York and the interior Mid-Atlantic westward across the Ohio Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley. In New Mexico, moist southeasterly winds and an upper-level disturbance could pop a few severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts. In interior parts of western Oregon and northern California, an approaching upper-level low coupled with a hot day and some moisture could cause a few severe thunderstorms to erupt with hail and strong gusty winds. Finally, the stalled front in south Florida could again be the focus for a few strong thunderstorms with heavy rain into the evening hours.



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