Hurricane JEANNE Discussion 42 11PM EDT

[Jeb]

Hurricane JEANNE

 

 

000

WTNT41 KNHC 240251

TCDAT1

HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

 

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND THERE IS GOOD ORGANIZATION...

THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THIS WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FACT

THAT JEANNE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR A DAY OR SO...RESULTING IN

UPWELLING AND COOLER WATERS. THE WINDS COULD BE LOWERED AT THIS

TIME BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECON WHICH WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY

EARLY FRIDAY. SO FOR NOW THE WINDS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. THE

UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BETWEEN THE

BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND AS SOON AS JEANNE MOVES WESTWARD OVER

THIS AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS

THEN ANTICIPATED.

 

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND IT APPEARS THAT

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS

BEGUN TO FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. AS THE

HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED AND SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48

HOURS. BY THEN...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE

HURRICANE WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH.

THIS TURN COULD EITHER OCCUR OVER THE PENINSULA OR ALONG THE EAST

COAST. NEVERTHERLESS...JEANNE IS A THREAT TO FLORIDA. THIS IS IN

AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTENTLY

HAVE BEEN BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE PAST

FEW RUNS.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.1N 70.8W 90 KT

12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.1N 72.2W 95 KT

24HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 74.5W 100 KT

36HR VT 25/1200Z 26.2N 77.0W 105 KT

48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 105 KT

72HR VT 27/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 45 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER

 

 

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