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Hurricane KARL Discussion 30 11PM EDT


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Hurricane KARL

 

000

WTNT42 KNHC 240247

TCDAT2

HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

 

KARL IS NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE

LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE MORE OBVIOUS

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BECOMING

MORE UNCERTAIN. CI NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5...5.0...AND 4.0 FROM

TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A

COMPROMISE OF 80 KT. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A

PRESSURE OF 963 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER

TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THIS PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP IS ALLOWABLE

FOR A HIGH-LATITUDE STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT KARL IS

IN THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE

COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES

ENVELOPED WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF GREENLAND.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...WHICH

SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECTLY FORECASTING THE HURRICANE'S RECENT

INTENSITY TRENDS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

 

KARL IS STILL ACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/26. THE

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL THEN MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST

AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24

HOURS...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KARL IS

EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE

BRITISH ISLES BY 72 HOURS.

 

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 24/0300Z 38.7N 41.5W 80 KT

12HR VT 24/1200Z 42.6N 40.9W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 25/0000Z 47.5N 39.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 25/1200Z 52.2N 35.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 26/0000Z 57.0N 27.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

 

 

$$

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