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Nat'l Wx - October 1 2004


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Fronts to bring Feel of Fall

8:38 P.M. ET 10/1/2004


James Wilson, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

National Forecast Video




A strong cold front will arrive in the Northeast with rain and thunderstorms for New York and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and for New England from late Saturday into early Sunday morning. The front will move steadily along so rainfall will generally stay under three-quarters of an inch and the threat for any additional flooding is low. Daytime temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s on Saturday and in the 50s and 60s as the sunshine returns on Sunday. A second cold front will move through the region Monday and early Tuesday with very little rainfall. Morning frostiness in the mountains beginning as soon as Sunday could reach into the suburbs of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington by Wednesday.



On Saturday, the southern portion of the cold front will sag toward the Rio Grande and the Louisiana Gulf Coast while tracking eastward from the western Tennessee Valley into the Carolinas and Georgia. A few thunderstorms will precede the cold front as it moves into the Deep South. Daytime temperatures Saturday will range from the 60s and 70s in western Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas (some 5 to 15 degrees below average) to the 80s in the Carolinas and the 80s and low 90s around the Gulf (up to 5 degrees above average). Temperatures on Sunday will be 5 degrees either side of average, ranging from the 70s north (from western Texas to North Carolina) to the 80s and low 90s once again around the Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will sweep into the South Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase in parts of the Southeast and the southern Plains.



The strong cold front will completely exit the eastern Ohio by Saturday afternoon, leaving the Plains and Midwest rain free except for rain and a few flakes of snow across western Upper Michigan. Winds will remain gusty over the Upper Midwest. After morning temperatures in the 20s and a hard freeze across the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, temperatures will rebound into the 60s and low 70s (near average) in the Plains and into the 50s (5 to 15 degrees below average) in the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. A second strong windy cold front will sweep through the region from the Dakotas and Upper Midwest to the Appalachians and Deep South Sunday and Monday. The front will be mostly rain free, but the strong winds and a new surge of cold air over Lake Superior and Lake Michigan will cause more rain and snow showers over northern Michigan.



As temperatures rebound to above-average levels over the high Plains of Montana and Wyoming Saturday (due to warming westerly down-sloping winds), temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average over the high Plains of eastern New Mexico. A few showers will linger in the central and southern Rockies. A second cool Canadian high pressure area will slide southward east of the Rockies later Sunday and Monday producing another round of below average temperatures. Meanwhile, temperatures in the Pacific Northwest will be 5 to 10 degrees above average right through Monday. Over the Southwest, one upper-level system has exited eastward but will be replaced by new Pacific disturbances over the weekend, prolonging the risk for showers and a few thunderstorms across parts of Wyoming and the Four Corners' states into the coming week.

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