Jump to content
ScienceWeather

Tropical Storm LISA Discussion 51 11PM EDT


Jeb
 Share

Recommended Posts

Tropical Storm LISA

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 020218

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004

 

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PEAKED AT 4.0 T NUMBERS AT 18Z AND HAVE

NOW DECREASED TO 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...EVEN THOUGH

THERE ARE SOME ELEMENTS PRESENT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE. ALSO A 21Z

HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. SO THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR

IS ALREADY SEEN TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE

CIRCULATION. SO WITH COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR

AHEAD...LISA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16. LISA IS EMBEDDED IN

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE

MOSTLY EASTWARD BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS

A MERGER BETWEEN LISA AND AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROBABLY

THE REMNANT OF JEANNE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS SEPARATE SYSTEMS. IN

EITHER CASE...LISA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN

24 HOURS OR SO.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 02/0300Z 39.6N 42.8W 60 KT

12HR VT 02/1200Z 41.5N 39.5W 55 KT

24HR VT 03/0000Z 44.2N 32.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 03/1200Z 45.6N 23.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 04/0000Z 46.5N 13.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 05/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL

 

 

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...