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Tropical Depression LISA Discussion 19


Jeb
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Tropical Depression LISA

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 240237

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

 

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED EXPOSED

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST

OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR

CONTINUES TO IMPACT LISA. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHT

WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT LISA WILL ENCOUNTER

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER

TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR BY DAY 4 AND OPENS LISA INTO A WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST BUT NOT

QUITE AS GENEROUS AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

 

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6 KT. FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS

UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE

NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED

TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CONFORM WITH THE CONU

CONSENSUS.

 

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 24/0300Z 14.7N 42.0W 30 KT

12HR VT 24/1200Z 15.1N 42.8W 30 KT

24HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.1W 30 KT

36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.9N 45.1W 30 KT

48HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 46.0W 35 KT

72HR VT 27/0000Z 21.0N 47.0W 40 KT

96HR VT 28/0000Z 24.0N 48.0W 45 KT

120HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 48.5W 50 KT

 

 

$$

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