Jeb Posted October 15, 2005 Report Share Posted October 15, 2005 Those folks just keep getting POUNDED by heavy rain over and over again! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/txtprods/BOX/AFDBOX 000 FXUS61 KBOX 142251 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 651 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005 ...RENEWED FLOODING OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING.... .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... DECIDED TO EXPAND FLOOD WATCH NEWD INTO MIDDLESEX COUNTY OF MA AND HILLSBORO COUNTY OF NH GIVEN RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH INDICATES CONTINUING COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS EASTERN NY...WRN CT AND WRN MA. THIS IS TRANSLATING INTO VERY HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF MASS PIKE INTO SRN NH. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OR NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSE NEWD AS MID LEVEL JET MOVES EASTWARD WITH APPROACHING TROF FROM THE WEST. OTHER CONCERN FOR HILLSBORO AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION...GIVEN RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH RECENT FLOODING DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR CHESHIRE COUNTY NH. IN FACT...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF FLOODING FROM KEENE - 50 PEOPLE EVACUATED FROM TANGLEWOOD ESTATES IN KEENE. STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL REGIONWIDE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. AS OF 645 PM RADAR ALREADY ESTIMATING OVER 1" RNFL ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH. NOCERA && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 435 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... SEVERAL INTERESTING FACTORS AT PLAY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST...THE CONTINUING DUEL OF THE LOWS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH ONE WEAKER LOW CENTER REMAIN OFF LONG ISLAND AND A SECOND WELL SE OF NANTUCKET. THE NEW FEATURE IS A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT CUT ACROSS NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING... THAT IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE LOWS OFFSHORE AND THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES. EXCELLENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOW IN PLACE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THE LOWS TO FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THIS SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST AND THE HIGH OVER THE MARITIMES FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND PUSHES EAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FROM SW-NE DURING SATURDAY... WHICH HAS BEEN ABOUT THE ONLY CONSISTENT THING GOING ON THE MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS. TONIGHTS PORTION OF THE MODEL SUITE CONTINUED TO SHOW A WIDE DISPARITY...THOUGH IT APPEARED THAT THE GFS MAY HAVE FINALLY LATCHED ONTO THE SITUATION AND LEANED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT. THE TWO LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER EASTERN MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL THEN STRENGTHEN INTO A GALE CENTER WHILE COOLER AIR WORKS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING SATURDAY...FOR A COOL BLUSTERY AUTUMN DAY. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUED COOLER WITHOUT A LOT OF DIURNAL CHANGE...AS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV MOS TEMPS. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... .MAINLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER REGIME PREVAILS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP DIURNAL LAPSE RATES AND SERIES OF A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PIVOTING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. IN ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE WIND TRANSFER UP TO 45 TO 50 KT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUNDAY. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED GROUND AND LEFTOVER FOLIAGE MAY INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND DAMAGE SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. A SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...WIND DYNAMICS ALOFT FAVOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORT WAVE APPEARS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER THE MID RANGE ENSEMBLES BEGIN DIVERGE FROM DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 (WED THROUGH FRI). GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERING IN EASTERN CANADA. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BUILD A RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND DOES NOT PICK UP ON AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST CPC ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAS THE NAO TURNING NEGATIVE DURING THE NEXT WEEK AND WOULD CONFIRM THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THUS HAVE ADDED A 30 PERCENT POP TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM HPC GUIDANCE. AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR WITH THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING STEADIER THERE TONIGHT. AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINFALL MOVES NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH SOME VFR VSBYS BY 18Z SATURDAY. MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...HAVE LOWERED THE GALES ON THE SOUTH SOUNDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. KEPT MINIMAL GALES GOING FOR GUSTS ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN TO MONTAUK...THOUGH FEEL THAT THESE CAN BE LOWERED TO SMALL CRAFTS ON THE EVENING PACKAGE. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS ON ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH PASS ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WILL PICK RIGHT BACK UP AGAIN DURING SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN BEHIND THE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN MAINE. LONG RANGE...GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WIND MOMENTUM TRANFER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLACKENING MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NEEDED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. HYDROLOGY... HAVE ISSUED TWO NEW FLOOD STATEMENTS TO COVER HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY TONIGHT. 88D RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1/2-1" PER HOUR OVER FRANKLIN...HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES AS OF 20Z ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE AND BLOCKING HIGH. HAVE KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY. STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL...BUT FEEL THAT A FAIR ESTIMATE WILL BE FROM 1-2" BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THIS PART OF THE EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PAWTUXET RIVER IN CRANSTON FOR A POSSIBLE CREST NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AS WELL AS THE BLACKSTONE...BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND UPON WHETHER THE FORECASTED QPF ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY. MA...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ002>005-008>012-026 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY. NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY. RI...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...NOCERA -------------------------------------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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