Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

[Jeb]

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

 

000

WTPZ44 KNHC 050220

TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004

 

THE DEPRESSION HAS AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH CONVECTION ONLY IN

THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS PATTERN IS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY

SHEAR CAUSING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. DESPITE THE SHEAR...

EARLIER CIMSS/CIRA AMSU ANALYSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NEAR

TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THOUGH THERE IS NO SUPPORT IN THE DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ANY AGENCY. THE DEPRESSION IS KEPT AT 30 KT

WITH ALL INDICATIONS TOWARD IT BECOMING A STORM OVERNIGHT.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...

280/13. GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH THE

UKMET/NOGAPS POORLY INITIALIZING THE CENTER AND THE GFS/GFDL HAVING

MUCH TOO SLOW OF AN INITIAL MOTION. HOWEVER A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL

RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

KEEPING IT MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE

PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. IF THIS DISTURBANCE WERE TO DEVELOP

IT COULD INDUCE A MOTION A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS

CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW THE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY SIMILAR

TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FAST BAMS SUITE

AND THE MUCH SLOWER GFDL/GFS MODELS.

 

MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT

36-48 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF

THE DEPRESSION. SHIPS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM AND THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS. TOWARD THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WHICH COULD ALLOW

FOR MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF TRACK

GUIDANCE AND OVERALL UNCERTAINTY...ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS

SHOWN...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

 

FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.1N 113.4W 30 KT

12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.3N 115.2W 35 KT

24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.5N 118.8W 45 KT

48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.5N 120.7W 45 KT

72HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W 50 KT

96HR VT 09/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W 55 KT

120HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W 55 KT

 

 

$$