Tropical Storm KAY Discussion 4 8AM PDT

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Tropical Storm KAY

 

 

000

WTPZ44 KNHC 051425

TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004

 

THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE

CONVECTION TO YIELD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...2.5...AND 2.5 FROM

TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE THE CURRENT

INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.

HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND

SINCE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. IN

FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER

IS BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND

PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE

REVISED DOWNWARD.

 

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11. THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR

EVIDENCE THAT KAY'S MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 N MI TO ITS WEST. THUS FAR...

DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE

VERY WELL. GIVEN THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST

BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KAY OVER THE

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS

DOES NOT SHOW A FAST ENOUGH WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST

IN CASE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE AT LEAST

PARTIALLY CORRECT.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.7N 115.8W 40 KT

12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.8N 117.4W 40 KT

24HR VT 06/1200Z 14.9N 119.5W 45 KT

36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W 50 KT

72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 50 KT

96HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W 50 KT

120HR VT 10/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W 50 KT

 

 

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