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Tropical Depression KAY Discussion 6 8PM PDT


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Tropical Depression KAY

 

000

WTPZ44 KNHC 060230

TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004

 

KAY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THE

CENTER REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE

CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS

DVORAK RULES ALLOW. GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.

 

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE NORTHERLY WIND

SHEAR PERSISTS. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL

ABATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COMEBACK.

THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ALTERNATIVELY... THE

DEPRESSION COULD SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW AND BE ABSORBED INTO

THE LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

 

SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW

SYSTEM...MORE WEIGHT IS BEING PLACED ON THE BAMS MODEL WHICH IS

OFTEN USEFUL FOR WEAK SYSTEMS. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN

RATHER POOR...CONSISTENTLY MOVING KAY SLOWLY AND TOO FAR TO THE

SOUTH. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST AND BAMS.

 

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 06/0300Z 15.5N 117.1W 25 KT

12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W 25 KT

24HR VT 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W 25 KT

36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.2N 122.4W 30 KT

48HR VT 08/0000Z 16.3N 124.5W 30 KT

72HR VT 09/0000Z 16.5N 128.0W 30 KT

96HR VT 10/0000Z 16.5N 131.5W 30 KT

120HR VT 11/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT

 

 

$$

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