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BREAKING NEWS: HURRICANE EPSILON!!!!


Jeb
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/022031.shtml

TPC Link

 

 

000

WTNT44 KNHC 022031

TCDAT4

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

 

EPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW

PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z

AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON

THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH

IT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES

INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN

NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE

SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE

LATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE

SUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A

TENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK

NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS

ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF...

AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS.

HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS

ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT

MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.

 

EPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY

WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE

BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO

A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.

 

GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY

THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER

DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2

IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE

TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED

1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 02/2100Z 34.2N 47.4W 65 KT

12HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 45.9W 60 KT

24HR VT 03/1800Z 36.1N 43.9W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 04/0600Z 37.2N 41.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 04/1800Z 38.4N 39.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 05/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

$$

 

 

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Tropical Depression EPSILON Discussion

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 081429
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10
KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS
IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL	  08/1500Z 26.4N  40.3W	30 KT
12HR VT	 09/0000Z 26.0N  41.0W	25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT	 09/1200Z 25.5N  42.0W	25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT	 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

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