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HURRICANE IKE THREATENS UPPER GULF COAST


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HURRICANE IKE THREATENS UPPER GULF COAST

 

Hurricane Ike has reemerged into the northern Caribbean Sea via Cuba's south coast and is restrengthening. It will likely strengthen into a Category 4 or 5 hurricane over the next few days and slam into Louisiana or Texas. It could even hit New Orleans. Ike will evolve into a large dangerous hurricane that will cover the entire Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

This is a Hurricane Ike video from Baracoa, Cuba

 

Ike's 5-Story Waves Pound Cuba

Hurricane Ike is ripping across Cuba today, on track to swipe the Florida Keys. It brought waves as high as five stories to Cuba.

http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/section...article=4207498

 

 

 

This is unrelated video coverage from TS Fay but it's a must-see.

 

TS Fay Slams Kite Surfer

Fort Lauderdale resident Kevin Kearney is in critical condition Tuesday after attempting to kite surf in Tropical Storm Fay.

http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/section...article=4117332

 

 

 

Check out these Hurricane Pictures as seen from orbit!!!

Hurricane Ike just rolled across Cuba, and soaked parts of Haiti - both regions still reeling from recent Hurricane Gustav. Ike appears to be weakening now, but is headed tward the Gulf Coast of the U.S., and may yet strengthen. The crew aboard the International Space Station was able to take a photo of Ike from 220 miles overhead last Thursday - one in a long series of great NASA photographs of hurricanes from space. Here are some of the best, from the past several years. (25 photos total)

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/h...from_orbit.html

(Sept 9 2008)

 

 

Photo Gallery Of Hurricanes That Have Hit Long Island

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/ny-hurri...91.photogallery

 

 

 

 

 

sm040480 contributed this post over at EUSWX:

 

From pro met at Harris County Flood Control:

Dangerous hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend.

Residents along the TX and LA coast should begin preliminary preparations for the impact of a major hurricane.

Current:

Satellite images and Cuban radar show Ike continues to move W and in about 6 hours will emerge into the Caribbean Sea on the S Cuba coast. If a WNW turn does not begin very soon the hurricane will be back over water and miss the NHC forecast point at 18Z to the south. While the eye has filled…the inner core remains well defined on Cuban radar.

 

Track:

The model consensus has come into good agreement that Ike will round the ridge over the SE US through this week with a general WNW track across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Per NHC they are tossing out the GFS and its GFDL and HWRF members due to their poor handling of an incoming C US trough this weekend. This trough looks weaker and does not appear to influence the hurricane until maybe Sunday…by then it will have hit the coast.

 

There is growing agreement that Ike will round the SW and W side of the ridge and move toward the upper TX and SW LA coast late this week into early this weekend. While there is still some spread the threat to the TX coast continues to grow.

 

It should be noted that track errors at 5 days is on the order of 300 miles…however this is a growing confidence forecast track due to the fairly tight model clustering.

 

Intensity:

The intensity is strongly tied to how much time Ike spends over Cuba…and it now appears it will be back over water within the next 6 hours. With the inner core still intact Ike will begin intensification once over the water. After entering the Gulf there is little to impede intensification. The upper air pattern looks very favorable with a weak diffluent flow noted over the hurricane and little to no shear. Only a little dry air to the west may get entrained. For now will go with major hurricane status…but the feeling is that Ike may reach category 4 intensity at some point in the Gulf…will have to see how it interacts with Cuba.

 

Note: Due to the land interaction Ike will expand its size and will likely grow to an extremely large hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The global models all show a hurricane taking up nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico.

 

Impacts:

Based on the NHC grids…will need to begin ramp up on all aspects rainfall, wind, seas, tides for the entire upper TX coast.

Will likely start to see TS force winds enter our coastal waters late Friday afternoon and the coast Friday evening building to near Hurricane force early Saturday.

 

Will go with likely rain chances starting late Friday and then will likely need 100% Saturday is NHC track holds.

 

Will push seas into the 6-10 foot action Thursday into Friday and then build to hurricane conditions late Friday into Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

sm040480 contributed another post over at EUSWX:

 

Per conference call out of Harris County Flood Control at 9:30 this morning:

Intensity forecast could go up by 4:00 PM to show a Cat 4 in the GOM.

Expecting landfall as a Cat 3. Whether high end or low end, not known at this time.

Track should stay (hah) WNW through Day 3-4 then the right turn. How hard a turn? unknown.

He is hearing rumblings that NHC will shift the track as far south as Matagorda Bay to Freeport/High Island.

Windfield expanding and expecting an extremely large hurricane. Possibly on the scale of Katrina or Carla. TS force winds up to 250 miles, hurricane force winds 60 miles.

For planning purposes, H-36 hours is Wednesday afternoon/early evening. That's when possible evacs could be started, if not before. Galveston Island first. All those in Zones A, B, C will be in mandatory evac zone.

Fuel IS an issue due to Ike being so close on the heels of Ike and reserves are not at 100%.

Trigger time for the public-Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

 

sm040480 also posted links to Texas Coastal Webcams:

You will want to post these on your own messageboards so that you can check out the Hurricane Ike action when he comes ashore in a few days!

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...p;#entry3028092

 

Webcam links

 

Out of Corpus:

http://www.corpusbeach.com/

http://instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=CRPSC&size=S

 

Out of Galveston:

http://instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=GLVST&size=S

 

Matagorda/Palacios:

http://www.dayonthebayservices.com/webcampal.htm

 

South Padre:

http://www.spadre.com/beachcam.htm

http://www.spadre.com/surfcam.htm

http://www.spadre.com/baycam.htm

 

if this topic has been started already then just delete mine, mk?

Suz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A poster, thelastsasquatch, made a curious post over at EUSWX on Sept 10 2008:

You can read his post at Eastern here -> ( http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=...t&p=3032025 )

 

 

(These comments are off-topic, however since it was brought up...)

This is a CLASSIC example of human nature and what economists call 'steep discount rates' and psychologists call 'the recency effect'. (In childrens books its called 'Boy who cried wolf'). People expected 'something' to happen with Gustav. In our high stimulation sound bit culture, it was a large let down in 'unexpected reward' thus raising the threshold of stimulation for the next event to a higher level necessary to excite our dopamine neurons. Plus anyone who 'overpredicted' is going to wait until the last minute to proclaim that it is dangerous, so as to avoid being classified as Chicken Little. Fact is, humans are not good at following the precautionary principle. If there ever is a killer cane hit US coast, it would be best if it followed another bad cane, so that peoples stimulation neurocircuitry is properly reset....

 

Bottom line: other than this board and meteorological circles, far fewer people are paying attention to this storm than Gustav. While it still may end up being bust, the climo conditions are far superior than Gustav 50 hours out, yet it is gonna have to pull some tricks fast to get the right peoples attention...

 

Other resources: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4240 (On origins of addiction to oil - part of my phd thesis

unexpected reward and habituation: http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Reward

 

Back on topic....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Check out these pics of Hurricane Ike!!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7603227.stm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DT wxrisk is one of the best forecasters and also one of the finest meteorologists ever to grace the Eastern US Weather Forums forums. I have learned a great deal from his posts. Dave Tolleris' input is all the more appreciated at EUSWX because he tends to offer a counterpoint approach to much of the weenieism typically found on weather forums. DT offers a fresh viewpoint in the thick of the often raging hyperbole that reigns at EUSWX just before a lanfalling hurricane or in the 10-14 days preceding the onset of a major winter storm during the low sun period.

 

This in my estimation and opinion has got to be one of the very best posts DT has ever made at Eastern.

 

the idea behind the use of BENCHMARKS ... or key break points... is a combination of usng 3 things

 

 

1) the overall synoptic situation

 

2) Hurricane Model and TRENDS

 

3) climatology

 

often you see a lot of bickering back and forth amongst Mets and knowledgeable weather hobbysists as to which of the 3 methods will work best... there is NO correct answer and it is NOT a yes or no thing.

 

SOMETIMES climo does work best -- recall HANNA .. 2-3 days ago the Hurricane Models showed a strong consensus track making landfall in GA or the GS AC border... but the clear overwhelming amount of Climo did NOT support that sort of track. In addition as weather models saw the Midwest coldfront more clearly with each passing run we end up witha TYPICAL coastal or I-95 track from a landfall over se NC that quickly turned NNE then NE .

 

On the other hand ISABEL's kind of track is NEVER supported by climo... so if you use only or mostly climo you could never make THAT kind of forecast track...a atlantic Hurricane heading NW as it moves inland from eastern NC. You would bust ...millions would laugh at you ...and woman would never want to be seen with you again ....

 

Last time the benchmark was 79 W LONG and IKE's crossing points along 79 W.

 

clearly he is going to pass SOUTH of 25N and 80 West.... by MONDAY night.

 

The issue is the parabolic curve -- the way IKE tracks across CUBA ...IF he does... b/c that shows the interaction of the southwest western flank of the 500 MB ridge and IKE.

 

BENCHMARK 1... KEY WEST ...

for IKE to track over or close to KEY west given his current track means a heading of about 300 degress... IF IKE were to pass over KEY wet then a landfall between AQQ /Appalachicola and MSY/ New orleans is LIKELY

 

BENCHMARK 2 THE CUBA COAST ... between KEY WEST and the North CUBA coast.... this track RUNNING THE SLOT .... would increase the likelihood of landfall from MOBLIE BAY to TX/ LA border

 

 

 

BENCHMARK 3 Between 76W long and 82 W long ...along 22 N Latitude line

obviously a prolonged track over CUBA would weaken IKE seriously but that does tell us anything about his trajectory. AS long as IKE does NOT drop SOUTH of 22 N the threat the the central GULF coast would still be high

 

 

BENCHMARK 4 Between 76W long and 82 W long ... IKE drops SOUTH of the 22 North Latitude line

IF IKE does drop SOUTH of 22 as he cuts across CUBA then threat to central and Upper TX Gulf coast would be MUCH higher

 

 

BENCHMARK 3 and 4 also means a Much weaker hurricane in the GULF.

 

 

LASTLY the key FEATURE synoptically over North America to Focus on are TWO s/w (short waves) that are SUPPOSE to come into the Pacific NW and Rockies middle of Next week. see 0z sept 7 GFS 144 hr and 168 hr images.... note the BLUE oval shapes...?

 

over the next several days ALL weather Models will feature these two S/Ws differently and with NO consistency... WHY? b/c these S/ Ws are coming in from the Data void of the North Pacific... and therefore all of the global scale Models ... be it the UKMET the ECMWF the CMC or the GFS ... are just " guessing "

 

when and IF those two S/Ws are coming in stronger on the Global Models then the western side of the Ridge over FL /the se states/ and the Bahamas will be weaker and IKE turns NW then...N into the Gulf coast

 

when and IF those two S/Ws are coming in WEAKER then the western side of the Ridge over FL/ se states/the Bahamas will be

STRONGER and IKE turns W then...

 

 

 

 

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FOR THOSE OF YOU NOT YET FAMILIAR WITH EASTERN US WEATHER FORUMS.................

 

Eastern US Weather Forums

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?act=idx

 

 

Weather forecasting and discussion

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15

 

 

 

Easternuswx.com Weather Models

http://models.easternuswx.com/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For additional information, the folks over at the Internet Wikia have developed their own Eastern US Weather Forums page, as well as their winter weather Weenie Phrazes page, which is representative of many of the weenie phrases posted in the low sun period at EUSWX.

 

 

 

 

 

Texas coast girds for strike by deadly Ike

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080910/ts_al...atherstormtexas

 

 

 

Thousands flee Texas coast as Ike approaches

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_re_us/ike

 

 

Ginx Snewx posted a link that shows the GoMex already affecting seawalls in Texas.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

 

 

 

Live footage right here of the High surf in Galveston from CNN

 

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2

 

 

September 12 2008

 

Yahoo Hurricane Ike Pictures

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Hurricane-Ik...09_us_storm_ike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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