Jeb Posted October 12, 2004 Report Share Posted October 12, 2004 PACIFIC BASIN (EPAC) Tropical Storm LESTER 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122023 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004 THE CYCLONE HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION TO YIELD A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUATING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE STORM WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. BASED ON AN EARLIER TRMM PASS...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6...AND ONLY A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE. THE MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN. PERHAPS THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESTER. IN ANY EVENT...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 99.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 100.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.9N 101.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 108.5W 65 KT $$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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