Jump to content
ScienceWeather

Tropical Storm LESTER Discussion 5


Jeb
 Share

Recommended Posts

PACIFIC BASIN (EPAC)

 

Tropical Storm LESTER

 

000

WTPZ45 KNHC 122023

TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004

 

THE CYCLONE HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION TO YIELD

A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUATING TO A CURRENT

INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED ON THIS BASIS.

CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW

DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER

WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES

INLAND...THE STORM WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO INCREASED

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.

 

BASED ON AN EARLIER TRMM PASS...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOTION IS

NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6...AND ONLY A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD

MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE. THE MORE NORTHWARD

COMPONENT OF MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN. PERHAPS THERE IS SOME

INFLUENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE

SOUTHWEST OF LESTER. IN ANY EVENT...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS

LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE

INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 99.4W

35 KT

12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 100.1W 40 KT

24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.9N 101.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W 50 KT

48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W 55 KT

72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 65 KT

96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 65 KT

120HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 108.5W 65 KT

 

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...