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JTWC: TOKAGE Tropical Cyclone Warning


Jeb
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PACIFIC BASIN (WPAC)

 

 

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

WTPN31 PGTW 132100

1. TYPHOON 27W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006

UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

131800Z3 --- NEAR 13.9N3 139.0E3

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 139.0E3

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

140600Z1 --- 13.9N3 137.2E3

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

141800Z4 --- 14.8N3 135.8E7

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

150600Z2 --- 15.9N5 134.6E4

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

151800Z5 --- 17.5N3 133.6E3

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z6 --- 18.7N6 131.4E9

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

171800Z7 --- 21.2N5 129.5E7

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

181800Z8 --- 24.2N8 128.2E3

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

---

REMARKS:

132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 138.5E7.

 

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO

WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8, 140900Z4, 141500Z1 AND 142100Z8.

//

BT

#0001

NNNN

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