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Hurricane JEANNE Discussion 46 11PM EDT


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Hurricane JEANNE

 

000

WTNT41 KNHC 250240

TCDAT1

HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. LAST AIR

FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE

OF 964 MB. EARLIER A NOAA PLANE MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 107 KNOTS

AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREAFTER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED ONLY 95

KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND REMAIN AT

5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS

UNTIL NEW DATA COMES FROM ANOTHER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE

HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE

FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE HURRICANE'S OUTFLOW

AND RAOB DATA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARMER OCEAN BETWEEN

THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...SUGGESTS SOME STREHGTHENING AND JEANNE

COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.

 

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONG

HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS

GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL

TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS

EASTWARD. ALTHOUH WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL

OCCUR...ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD MOTION THAN

ANTICIPATED WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FARTHER INLAND

OVER THE PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO

MAKE THE TURN EARLIER AND SLIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AT

THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INLAND

AND WILL MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED

ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A

LITTLE BIT WESTWARD. EVEN THE GFDL WHICH KEPT THE CORE OF THE

HURRICANE OVER WATER IS NOW KEEPING THE HURICANE HUGGING THE EAST

COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.5N 74.9W 85 KT

12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 95 KT

24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.2N 79.1W 100 KT

36HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 29/0000Z 37.5N 75.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER

120HR VT 30/0000Z 42.5N 66.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER

 

$$

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