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Tropical Depression LISA Discussion 23


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Tropical Depression LISA

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 250246

TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

 

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOW THAT THE

CENTER OF LISA REMAINS DISPLACED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE

DEEP CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE

PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM

AFWA AND SAB...TAFB IS 35 KT BASED ON A POSITION CLOSER TO THE

CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO

PRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERLY

SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS

THEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS.

 

INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE UKMET ARE NOW INDICATING A SUBTLE TURN

TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAY 4 AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN

BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE

NOGAPS...GFDL...UKMET AND THE GFS.

 

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 25/0300Z 14.3N 44.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 45.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 46.7W 40 KT

36HR VT 26/1200Z 18.2N 47.3W 45 KT

48HR VT 27/0000Z 20.0N 47.7W 50 KT

72HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 48.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 48.0W 60 KT

120HR VT 30/0000Z 30.0N 48.0W 60 KT

 

 

$$

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