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Hurricane JEANNE Discussion 50 11PM EDT


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Hurricane JEANNE

 

000

WTNT41 KNHC 260258

TCDAT1

HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

 

THE EYE IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. ON

RADAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AN INNER EYEWALL WAS OBSERVED

TO DISSIPATE. JEANNE HAS A LARGE 40 N MI DIAMETER EYE...WITH A

LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...ABOUT 45 N MI. THE EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE. IN FACT...SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL

WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100 KT

INTENSITY ESTIMATE...HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET FINISHED ITS

SURVEY OF THE HURRICANE.

 

JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND

IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES

AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY

SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD...JEANNE SHOULD BE ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES AND LOSING

TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN

MARITIMES. THIS FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND

THE GFS TRACK.

 

THE VERO BEACH FCMP TOWER JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH

WITH A GUST TO 104 MPH.

 

WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR AS FAR AS 100 MILES INLAND

ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 26/0300Z 27.2N 80.0W 100 KT

12HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W 65 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 82.9W 45 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 27/1200Z 31.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 30/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

$$

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