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Tropical Storm LISA Discussion 27


Jeb
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Tropical Storm LISA

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 260245

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

 

SHORTWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED

ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE

SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM

AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE

SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND A 2025Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WHICH REVEALED A

NUMBER OF REASONABLE 45 KT VECTORS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR SLOW

STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND BRINGS LISA UP TO

HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 96 HOURS.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/9. LISA IS MOVING WITHIN A WEAKNESS

IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWEST TO

NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS

SPLIT INTO 2 CLUSTERS. THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW A RELATIVELY FAST

MOTION SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO AN

APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU

SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE NAVY GFDN HAVE LISA MISS THE TROUGH AND THEN

INDICATE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS

IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR

TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE

OPTIONS.

 

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.0N 46.2W 45 KT

12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 46.8W 50 KT

24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.7N 47.5W 55 KT

36HR VT 27/1200Z 22.5N 48.2W 60 KT

48HR VT 28/0000Z 24.3N 49.0W 60 KT

72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 50.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 30/0000Z 29.5N 50.5W 65 KT

120HR VT 01/0000Z 31.5N 50.5W 65 KT

 

 

$$

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