Jeb Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 ABIO10 PGTW 011300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN REISSUED/011300Z-011800ZNOV2004// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N8 67.5E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N4 68.2E6, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 011028Z2 AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, 010600Z7 SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM REPORTED 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND MASS AROUND THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO FLOW RADIALLY OUTWARDS. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE 1.B.(1) TO FAIR. RELEASED BY: CAPT LEFFLER, USAF. FORECAST TEAM: LEFFLER/CHRISTIAN/LEWIN// NNNN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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