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Tropical Storm 29W


Jeb
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PACIFIC BASIN

 

 

WDPN31 PGTW 141500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

/WARNING NR 03//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 141200Z8 TO 171200Z1 NOV 2004.

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED

ON 141130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING

INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30

AND 35 KNOTS.

B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO

THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AT WHICH TIME IT WILL TAKE A

MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE

AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM, NCEPS GFS,

AND WBAR ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR

WHICH IS A POLEWARD OUTLIER. WBAR FORECASTS TS 29W TO TRACK POLEWARD

TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED

ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR.

C. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE

AS TS 29W IS BOUNDED BY AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES.

D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR

AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.

E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACKS TS 29W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY

OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF CHINA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER,

IT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND

TS 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE

PHILIPPINE SEA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH

THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR.

3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/FUNK//

NNNN

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