Jeb Posted November 17, 2004 Report Share Posted November 17, 2004 WDPN31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W /WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 211200Z6 NOV 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROX- IMATELY 175 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IN THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN TRACK SPEED. IN THE MID PERIOD, TS 29W IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST, TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND RETURNING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, UKMET, JGSM, JTYM AND TLAPS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. JTYM AND AFWA MM5 BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY AND ALTER TO A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EQUATORWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES. WBAR TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE WEAKNESS AND POLEWARD, AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR, JTYM AND AFWA MM5. C. TS 29W IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, PROVIDING FOR GREATER INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES STARTING IN THE EARLY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO HALT INTENSIFICATION AND DECREASE INTENSITY IN THE MID-PERIOD. AFTER TS 29W AGAIN TRACKS OVER OPEN WATER IN THE LATE PERIOD, THE FORECAST IS FOR MODERATE RE-INTENSIFICATION WITH SLIGHLY ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND STORM MOVEMENT. E. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE LATE PERIOD IN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/FJELD/SCHULTZ// Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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