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JTWC info on MUIFA


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WDPN31 PGTW 161500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W

/WARNING NR 11//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 211200Z6 NOV 2004.

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROX-

IMATELY 175 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED

WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING

POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED

OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.

B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD IN THE WEAK STEERING

ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST

AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE IN

THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW

IN TRACK SPEED. IN THE MID PERIOD, TS 29W IS FORECAST TO COME

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STEERING RIDGE TO

THE NORTHWEST, TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND RETURNING TO A

MORE WESTWARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP

GFS, AFWA MM5, UKMET, JGSM, JTYM AND TLAPS ARE IN ONLY FAIR

AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. JTYM AND AFWA MM5 BOTH TRACK THE

SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY AND ALTER TO A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EQUATORWARD

TRACK THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES. WBAR TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE

WEAKNESS AND POLEWARD, AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE

TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL

AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR, JTYM AND AFWA

MM5.

C. TS 29W IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW

IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST

12 HOURS, PROVIDING FOR GREATER INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY

FORECAST. INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES STARTING IN THE EARLY

PERIOD IS FORECAST TO HALT INTENSIFICATION AND DECREASE INTENSITY

IN THE MID-PERIOD. AFTER TS 29W AGAIN TRACKS OVER OPEN WATER IN

THE LATE PERIOD, THE FORECAST IS FOR MODERATE RE-INTENSIFICATION

WITH SLIGHLY ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY

AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS NEAR

THE PHILIPPINES. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY

FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND STORM MOVEMENT.

E. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK

WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY

BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY MODERATE

INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE LATE PERIOD IN A MARGINAL

UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL

AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/FJELD/SCHULTZ//

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