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National Weather at 2pm on November 21 2004


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Texas getting hit again

2:00 P.M. ET 11/21/2004


Kevin Roth, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel




A long subtropical jet stream (from Hawaii to Texas) is providing copious amounts of moisture to the southeastern quarter of the country. Heavy rainfall is anticipated once again Monday over parts of the Gulf Coast as this moisture works over an old, stalled frontal boundary. Parts of eastern Texas have already had a foot of rain this weekend and do not need any more. Unfortunately more rain is on the way prompting flash flood watches and warnings through least Monday. Adding insult to injury, an upper level storm system swirling over the Southwest is ready to feast on the southern moisture and subtropical jet stream energy over Texas on Tuesday. A potent storm system should form in the Panhandle region of the Lone Star State then race off to the northeast reaching Indianapolis by Wednesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible on the tropical side of the storm over the southern Plains, Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night.



A potent upper level low thundered through Southern California early Sunday morning bringing brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Los Angeles Basin and San Diego. Rain and snow showers were observed in the deserts east of the big cities. This storm system should spin through Arizona Monday bringing rain to the Phoenix and Tucson areas, while snow flies in the mountains. One two feet of snow may accumulate by Monday evening in the mountains above 6,000 feet in Arizona and 4,000 feet in Nevada. By Tuesday the storm system should move through New Mexico allowing much of the Southwest to dry out. Unsettled conditions are expected the next few days across the Pacific Northwest. No real organized system are dropping through the region, just some weak upper level disturbances, which should keep it mostly cloudy with passing rain and mountain snow showers.



Much of the Northeast should see a quiet weather day Monday. A few light showers of rain and/or snow are possible in northern New England and northern New York state during the morning as a disturbance moves through. Temperatures should be on the warmer side of average Monday with highs ranging from the upper 30s and lower 40s over the mountains to the 50s in the big cities. High pressure builds in with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday under sunny to partly cloudy skies.



The calm before the storm is a way to describe the weather across the Midwest Monday. High pressure sliding off to the east should provide partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Readings should be in the 40s and 50s during the afternoon, which is 5 to 15 degrees above average for mid to late November. A cold front drops in from Canada Tuesday as a storm forms over the southern Plains. Clouds and rain should overspread the region from the south later Tuesday as the Canadian air tries to proceed south. The big question to answer for Tuesday night and Wednesday is if the cold air arrives in time to change rain to snow on the northwestern fringe of the storm. Stay tuned to future forecasts on weather.com and The Weather Channel.

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