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Tropical Storm OTTO Discussion 2


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Tropical Storm OTTO

 

 

000

WTNT41 KNHC 010232

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

 

OTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE

SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT

DATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING

AND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL

CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A

UNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR

THE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS

INDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL

REACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT

APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS

LIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A

REMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 

OTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO

BEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE

NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED

SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 01/0300Z 31.6N 50.8W 40 KT

12HR VT 01/1200Z 31.4N 50.3W 40 KT

24HR VT 02/0000Z 31.0N 49.7W 35 KT

36HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 49.0W 35 KT

48HR VT 03/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 30 KT

72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.5N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

96HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 06/0000Z 27.5N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 

 

$$

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