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Tropical Storm OTTO Discussion 4


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Tropical Storm OTTO

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000

WTNT41 KNHC 020228

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004

 

WHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...A 01/2158Z

QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT OTTO HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTAINING SEVERAL 30-35 KT UN-FLAGGED WINDS.

DRIFTING BUOY 44623 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF

997.5 MB AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR

THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM

TAFB AND THE 35-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CENTRAL

PRESSURE SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

 

INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 150/06. THE LATEST

NHC MODEL SUITE IS QUITE DIVERGENT. THE UKMET IS THE LEFTMOST MODEL

AND TAKES OTTO DUE EAST WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE RIGHTMOST OF

ALL THE MODELS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DUE SOUTH. HOWEVER...

ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW FORWARD SPEED. AS THE MID-LATITUDE

WESTERLIES BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD

...WEAK 500 MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF OTTO. THIS

SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TO

SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST

NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH SHOULD

HELP KEEP THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER

AND HELP TO DRAG IT IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

 

THE SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE 850-200 MB SHEAR TO 35 KT BY

36H AND DISSIPATES OTTO BY 48-60H. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTTO

ORIGINATED FROM A COLD-CORE LOW AND LIKELY DOES NOT EXTEND TO THE

200 MB LEVEL...THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES MAY BE EXCESSIVE..GIVEN THAT

THE 300 MB WIND ACROSS OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 KT LESS THAN

AT THE 200 MB LEVEL. SINCE OTTO IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER

GRADUALLY WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY WAS HELD HIGHER THAN THE

SHIPS MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 02/0300Z 30.2N 49.7W 35 KT

12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.6N 49.4W 35 KT

24HR VT 03/0000Z 28.8N 48.7W 30 KT

36HR VT 03/1200Z 27.8N 47.8W 30 KT

48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.0N 47.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

72HR VT 05/0000Z 25.5N 46.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

96HR VT 06/0000Z 24.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

 

$$

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