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Tropical Storm LISA Discussion 37 11AM EDT


Jeb
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Tropical Storm LISA

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 281422

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW CLOSER TO

THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. RECENT

VISIBLE IMAGES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT LISA MAY

BE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION.

IN FACT..THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE. IF THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH

ADDITIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL

POSITION WILL BE ADJUSTED AND THE INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE

INCREASED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER KEEP

CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB

ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...WILL RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW

DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW

SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

 

LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10

KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA

SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING

THIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST

AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN TO

THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL

MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 28/1500Z 25.0N 47.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 29/0000Z 26.6N 47.3W 45 KT

24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 47.5W 50 KT

36HR VT 30/0000Z 31.0N 47.5W 55 KT

48HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 60 KT

72HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 47.5W 60 KT

96HR VT 02/1200Z 39.0N 44.0W 60 KT

120HR VT 03/1200Z 41.0N 38.0W 50 KT

 

 

$$

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