Jeb Posted December 13, 2004 Report Share Posted December 13, 2004 WDPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W WARNING NR 15// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 131200Z7 TO 181200Z2 DEC 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL- LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. B. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AS A TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TS 31W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH- WESTWARD AND STEADILY DECREASE IT'S SPEED OF ADVANCE AS IT MOVES POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, JGSI, JTYI, AVN, COAMPS, MM5, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS, THE POLEWARD OUTLIER, MM5 AND JGSI WHICH ARE EQUATORWARD OUTLIERS. TCLAPS INDICATES AN IMMEDIATE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MM5 AND JGSI INDICATE THE STEERING RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD KEEPING TS 31W ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS, MM5 AND JGSI. C. TS 31W IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH- WESTWARD. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO INCREASE, BUT BE OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 31W IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 130625Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TS 31W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RECURVING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN CHINA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DURING THE LATE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. 3.FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/FUNK// NNNN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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