Jump to content
ScienceWeather

AFD out of Reno, NV


Jeb
 Share

Recommended Posts

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/get...sid=rev&pil=afd

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

FXUS65 KREV 281203

AFDREV

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

400 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

 

.SHORT TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE SIERRA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OFF THE WEST COAST.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH SYSTEM MOVING INLAND TUESDAY

NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MOIST AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW

AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW

IN THE SIERRA. DIFFLUENCE IN NORTHEAST QUAD OF LOW WILL PRODUCE AT

LEAST ADVISORY SNOWS IN THE SIERRA DOWN SOUTH IN MONO COUNTY. SNOW

WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH IN THE TAHOE AREA AND HIGHER

ELEVATIONS IN LASSEN COUNTY. SNOW WILL MAINLY BE SHOWERY DUE TO

CONVECTIVE NATURE. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5500 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING

WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5000 FEET LATER TODAY. A TOTAL OF 6 TO 12

INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN MONO

COUNTY WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY SNOW ADVISORY. ALSO ADDED A LOWER

END SNOW ADVISORY TO THE TAHOE AREA AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY.

 

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE

WEATHER BEFORE A STRONG STORM MOVES IN. A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA

WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY THURSDAY. 120+ KT JET

CARVING OUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAHOE AREA

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND

60 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO REGION. GOOD

UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY WILL HELP TO FOCUS SNOWFALL ALONG WEST SLOPES OF

THE SIERRA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE

FLOW WITH SPILLOVER INTO WRN NV VALLEYS LIKELY BY THURSDAY. PRECIP

WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE RENO AREA ON

THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER WRN NV ON

THURSDAY...WITH RIDGE WINDS UP TO 100 MPH IN THE SIERRA. OVER 2 FEET

OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA LATE

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED FOR

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SIERRA...A WINTER STORM WATCH

OR SNOW ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN PORTIONS OF WRN NV BY LATER

SHIFTS. BENINATO

 

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP A COLD AND

UNSETTLED AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. A COUPLE SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE MOVES THROUGH

NORTHERN CA AND NORTHERN NV FRIDAY ADDING TO THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED

ON THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME

PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER SATURDAY AS

FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG CLOSED LOW

MOVES TO THE PAC NW COAST. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS TAKE

THIS LOW TO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE

UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THE

LOW. WILL USE THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AS THEY HAVE SHOWN GOOD

CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND THIS IS NOT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN

WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND 145 WEST.

THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE

SIERRA AND WESTERN NV SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLDER AND

UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE MONDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO SOUTHERN

OREGON OR NORTHERN CA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY BUT COLDER

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND

20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. RC

 

&&

 

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.NV...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY NVZ002.

.NV...WINTER STORM WATCH WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NVZ002.

.CA...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY CAZ073.

WINTER STORM WATCH WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY CAZ071<073.

 

&&

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...