Tropical Storm LISA Discussion 41

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Tropical Storm LISA

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 291436

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LISA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED

DURING THE MORNING AS INDICATED BY A DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY CURVED

CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND...AND BETTER DEFINED CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN

OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE

TYPE FEATURE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS BECOMING STRONGER.

HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB WHERE 3.5 AND

3.0 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL KEEP THE INITIAL

INTENSITY AT 60 KT. OBSERVATIONS OF 45 KNOTS FROM SHIP ZCGH LOCATED

ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE CENTER AND 30 KNOTS FROM SHIP FQFL ABOUT 220

NM NE OF THE CENTER OF LISA WERE USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND

RADII.

 

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE

SOUTHWEST OF LISA WILL HELP REDUCE SHEAR IN 12 HOURS ALLOWING

FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A

DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...LISA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST

AND ACCELERATE THROUGH 72 HOURS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER COOLER

WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

 

FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.7N 45.8W 60 KT

12HR VT 30/0000Z 31.1N 46.2W 65 KT

24HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 65 KT

36HR VT 01/0000Z 35.0N 48.0W 65 KT

48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.5N 48.0W 60 KT

72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.5N 44.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

 

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