Jeb

WTF is NEMAS?!!! http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=NEMAS...G=Google+Search NEMAS http://www.nemas.net/ ---------------------------

DT's 1st guess, someone Please post over at wwbb http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...pic=13420&st=20 9 am eastern Wright Weather Down? http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13441 12Z ETA coming in quite a but colder...., (at least through 54 hours) http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13438 A map http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13453 Ice Storm http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13455 12Z ETA coming in quite a but colder...., (at least through 54 hours) http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13438 The story of Bessie. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=12813 ----------------

2nd graphic

On this EUSWX thread http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13420 a reference to this site was made http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?regi...rrent&field=DEF WRT the next two illustrations

Please see: http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2004/tsunami.disaster/ ---------------

You know its a bad winter, When http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13204 THROUGH THE LENS: SPECIAL REPORT, A 9.0 Catastrophe -GRAPHIC http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=12746 Is the pattern change becoming clearer? http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13199 Warm Temperatures Today http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13205 ----

Check it out at: http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxinfo/wxinfo.html ----

East Basks in Record Warmth http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54986 Introducing Wxguy's NAO checklist http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54879 Serious flooding event possible in OV next week http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54988 Introducing the "WxInfo" page http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=54970 -----

OK, Let me be the first to say this. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13235 Hawk Talk (site was mentioned in an EUSWX thread) http://www.theriver.com/Public/raptor/lstm...750239.arc.html New Years Day Coming In With A Boom... http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13237 63F outside and I can't enjoy it. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13226 ----

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/photos...in-weekinpics-1

Winter pics http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/photos...in-weekinpics-1

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/photos...in-weekinpics-1

Dr. Nunley http://www.drnunley.com/ ---

The Battle Grounds http://www.bgmod.com/forums/index.php Nov 3 2005 1135pm Two IPB forums I discovered on the Invision Power Board forums tonight: INDIANOFFICER http://www.indianofficer.in/ PrettyFlesh Pre-made and Custom IPB Skins http://prettyflesh.com/index.html PrettyFlesh forums http://community.prettyflesh.com/ ------------------------- Nov 4 2005 1221am Crazy Monkey forums http://forums.crazy-monkey.net/index.php?act=idx This is a phpbb forum but its cool: Not One Bit.com http://www.notonebit.com/ Not One Bit.com forums http://www.notonebit.com/forum/ --------------------------------------- ---

Death Toll in Tsunami Approaching 150,000 http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=375109 Death Toll in Tsunami Approaching 150,000, United Nations Says; Final Toll May Never Be Known UNITED NATIONS Dec 31, 2004 — The death toll in the tsunami disaster is approaching 150,000, according to U.N. humanitarian chief Jan Egeland. "What we see is that the figures may be approaching 150,000 dead. The vast majority of those are in Indonesia and Aceh which is the least assessed area because of logistical constraints and it may therefore raise further," Egeland told reporters Friday afternoon. He added that the final number of dead will never be known. "We will never ever have the absolute definite figure because there are many fishermen and villages which have just gone and we have no chance of finding out how many they were," he said. ---

Storms rock California, Nevada, North Dakota Friday, December 31, 2004 Posted: 1:25 PM EST (1825 GMT) SACRAMENTO, California (AP) -- More wintry weather pummeled Northern California on Friday, blocking major mountain roads, and storm-weary residents around the state braced for another onslaught later. As much as 2 feet of snow fell in the Sierra Nevada, and up to 3 feet more were expected, as officials warned travelers to avoid the mountains through the holiday weekend. Up to 8 feet of snow and 70 mph wind gusts were expected in the peaks near Lake Tahoe. To the south, up to 2 inches of rain was expected Friday in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, following a storm earlier in the week that caused scores of highway accidents and spawned a small tornado. But there was only a small chance of rain for the Saturday morning start of the Rose Parade in Pasadena, the National Weather Service said. In the Northern Plains, meanwhile, North Dakota braced for heavy snow after a day of icy roads that left hundreds of hockey fans stranded overnight in Grand Forks. California has taken the brunt of this week's deadly storms, which have also battered Arizona, Nevada and Colorado. Three to 4 feet of snow have already fallen on Nevada mountains and as much as a foot of snow came down in the mountains of Colorado. At least 10 people have died, including husband and wife veterinarians killed in a Colorado crash who were nationally known experts on two wildlife ailments, brucellosis and chronic wasting disease. The Sierra Nevada snow closed Interstate 80 northeast of Sacramento and another major route through Northern California, Highway 50. On the Northern California coast, authorities warned that storm runoff could contaminate beaches just south of San Francisco, and recreational boaters were advised to stay off the water. More storms could hit Northern California and Nevada over the next few days. Five people have died in the storms in California since Monday. In Arizona, searchers Thursday recovered what they believed were the bodies of two missing Prescott College students who had vanished when their canoe capsized. A third body was found at a campground near Fountain Hills. The wildlife experts, Tom Thorne and his wife, Beth Williams, of Albany County, Wyoming, died Wednesday when their pickup hit a jackknifed trailer on U.S. 287 in northern Colorado. Williams, 53, who had taught at the University of Wyoming since 1982, "was probably the foremost chronic wasting disease expert in the country," Wyoming Game and Fish Department spokesman Al Langston said. Thorne, 63, spent 35 years at the department before retiring in 2003 and was a prominent researcher of chronic wasting disease in deer and elk, as well as of brucellosis in bison and elk. Meanwhile, Canadian fans attending the World Junior Hockey Championship in Grand Forks, North Dakota, were stranded overnight after Canadian police closed Highway 75, the north-of-the-border leg of Interstate 29. The Red Cross set up a shelter in Grand Forks' Alerus Center and served a free breakfast Friday. Spokeswoman Shelly Goss said 385 people had registered at the center. The road closure was announced during the Thursday afternoon game between Canada and Finland. Canadians cheered the announcement nearly as much as their team's 8-1 victory. Freezing rain also was a problem in Vermont, where as many as 60 vehicles slid off a stretch of Interstate 89 early Friday morning, forcing it to be closed for hours until maintenance crews could salt and sand it. No injuries were reported, state police said. http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/12/31/west...m.ap/index.html --

Aid arrives as tsunami toll tops 135,000 http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/12/3...uake/index.html Friday, December 31, 2004 Posted: 1:23 PM EST (1823 GMT) BANDA ACEH, Indonesia (CNN) -- For the first time since a devastating tsunami swept across southern Asia killing more than 135,000, people in some devastated, remote regions of Indonesia saw the arrival of aid workers -- and welcomed them as heroes. It was their first sign that the world had not forgotten about them, said Sabine Rens of Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders). "We just touched down, got out of the helicopter, and people started running toward us, shaking our hands, saying 'Oh my God,'" she told CNN on Friday. "This woman fell into my arms and started crying." Her group made it to two coastal areas Friday, Rens said -- merely dots on the huge landscape of destruction. Numerous organizations have sent crews to the region, where the death toll is likely to climb as more information comes in from remote areas. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan called it "an unprecedented global catastrophe." U.N. officials said Thursday the international community had pledged a combined half a billion dollars in support, and that figure jumped to more than $800 million Friday when the United States raised its contribution from $35 million to $350 million. (Full story) But officials warned Friday that logjams of supplies at Asian airports and a lack of fuel were threatening to hinder the massive aid effort. (Full story) In areas near Medan, Indonesia, soldiers distributed necessities. But dwindling fuel supplies meant they could not reach some areas. Many of these soldiers themselves lost wives and children in the massive tidal waves, spawned by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), said Friday it would begin an emergency airlift on Sunday to Indonesia that should get "urgently needed supplies" to 100,000 people in Aceh province. "We will be immediately providing shelter material for about one-fifth of the estimated affected population, but this is just the start of our operation," U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Ruud Lubbers said in a written statement. A U.S. military C-130 cargo plane landed Friday in Sri Lanka to distribute clean water. Members of all branches of the U.S. military are taking part in the mission. Several said they expected to travel to the Maldives, where 46 deaths were reported. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell planned to meet Friday with Annan to discuss U.S. assistance to the region. Powell and President George W. Bush's brother Jeb, governor of Florida, will lead a U.S. mission to the region Sunday. (Full story) As workers and news crews arrived in washed out, flattened areas -- villages and towns that just a week ago were filled with people and homes -- they saw striking signs of the will to survive. People, some barely clothed, picked through rubble for food, supplies, anything they could get their hands on to get by. In Indonesia alone, about 80,000 deaths have been reported; the death toll in Sri Lanka is about 41,000. India and Thailand account for thousands more deaths. In Sri Lanka, perils are hampering aid. After more than two decades of civil war have already ravaged large parts of the country, including the north and east, controlled by Tamil Tiger rebels. Untold numbers of land mines have been planted, and the tsunami washed many up, leaving them scattered. Rebels have established a virtual clamp-down on the region, warning everyone to avoid side streets and stick to only a few major roads that leaders are trying to secure. No one can enter without going through rebel checkpoints. The water and air are contaminated, local leaders warn, adding to health concerns that already existed for visitors to the region. Inoculations are needed to enter. In southern parts of Sri Lanka controlled by the government, more than 50 flights have arrived carrying food, water, and medicine. Sri Lankan officials have said they are coordinating with Tamil Tigers to get supplies to rebel-controlled areas, although some rebel leaders have accused the government of neglecting the areas. Other nations and international aid groups want to send another 100 flights full of supplies, but the government has said it just doesn't have the room to handle so many planes at once. Thousands of people in the country are living in Buddhist temples and churches. They share remarkable stories of survival. One man said when the waves hit he took shelter in a tree, clinging to branches for days as the water remained high. He eventually fell down, fracturing his leg. He counts himself among the lucky ones -- he was reunited with his family. Others in the shelters recount having been in their boats in the harbor when the tsunami struck, saying they were tossed around like toys, but miraculously did not drown. Chip Lyons with UNICEF told CNN that his organization's teams in the region still "have to get a handle" on the survival needs. They have begun distributing tablets that mix with water and help cure diarrhea -- which he called the number one cause of preventable death among children after such disasters. High-protein biscuits and powdered milk "loaded with nutrients" are on their way in as well. There's also a focus on the tremendous trauma faced by people in the region, particularly children. Aid groups will work to reconnect young people with extended family members or others who can take care of them, and will bring them together with other children. Lyons said that at this time even a simple game of kickball and makeshift classrooms could go a long way toward establishing some semblance of normalcy. Amid the devastation, Friday brought a glimmer of hope. In some places, as the new year arrived, people broke into celebrations -- in Sri Lanka, they violated a national day of mourning that banned such events. But thoughts for tsunami victims tempered normally joyous New Year's Eve festivities, as several major cities canceled parties and Australia held a minute of silence. (Full story) At one refugee camp in Dodangoda, thousands danced and sang. Several said it reflected their hope that the coming year will, and must, be better. CNN correspondents Hugh Riminton in Colombo, Sri Lanka; Satinder Bindra in Galle, Sri Lanka; Atika Shubert and Mike Chinoy in Banda Aceh, Indonesia; Aneesh Raman and Matthew Chance near Phuket, Thailand; Suhasini Haidar in Chennai, India; Ram Ramgopal in Nagappattinam, India; and journalist Iqbal Athas in Sri Lanka contributed to this report. http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/12/3...uake/index.html --

Tsunami Death Toll Surpasses 120,000 http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/story.jsp...105&floc=NW_1-T By LELY DJUHARI BANDA ACEH, Indonesia (AP) - The first U.S. military cargo plane arrived with supplies for this devastated town on Friday, and the country's health minister warned that Indonesia's death toll alone could reach 100,000 as the scope of devastation around Banda Aceh became apparent. Planes dropped food into isolated towns, and boxes of aid piled up at the airports as global donations poured into the region. But some villagers complained of hunger, and hospitals ran low on medicine, highlighting the difficulties workers had in delivering supplies. The death toll from the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the tsunamis it spawned rose to more than 120,000 on Friday, including about 80,000 deaths in Indonesia, though Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supadi said the toll there could hit 100,000. While residents in Banda Aceh, capital of the hardest hit area, struggled to dispose of rotting corpses, officials found that nearby coastal villages had largely vanished under the sea's fury. In the fishing village of Meulaboh, whole swaths of land were stripped bare. About a quarter of the town's 40,000 people were feared dead, but only a fraction of that number had been found. ``It is very difficult to predict the final toll,'' said Dody Budiatman, coordinator of relief efforts for the government in Jakarta. ``We could search in small boats, but considering the numbers, it would be very difficult.'' With the fear of disease looming, medical workers scrambled to establish a foothold. Ade Bachtiar, a volunteer nurse from Jakarta, treated patients at an impromptu clinic set up in an abandoned souvenir shop. ``Yesterday, we could only stay open for about two hours due to the lack of electricity,'' he said. ``Medicine is running out, especially antiseptics.'' Aid officials estimated as much as 60 percent of Banda Aceh was destroyed in the quake and tsunami. ``It will take at least two weeks for us to have the people and equipment we need here,'' said Aigor Lacomba, of a consortium of European aid groups. That time line is not likely to sit well with refugees like Darmidi, who has lived on the streets of Banda Aceh amid dozens of stinking corpses since Sunday. ``How are we going to live?'' the 43-year old fisherman asked, as his wife washed their 2-year-old son in a bucket. ``We have nothing anymore.'' Still, the $500 million international relief effort was making headway. The first of many expected U.S. C-130 cargo planes arrived at the regional airport, and Indonesia said supplies had arrived from 18 countries. A Thai navy air base used by U.S. B-52 bombers during the Vietnam War was turned into the hub for the U.S. military-led relief effort for Sri Lanka and India, while a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group from Hong Kong was expected to reach the shores of Sumatra island as early as Saturday. Singapore opened up the Southeast Asian city-state's naval and air forces bases so that donors could drop off supplies there. Defense Minister Teo Chee Hean said airports in Sumatra were overstretched by the influx of aid, citing information he'd received from Indonesian Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono. Sunday's earthquake spawned tsunamis that crashed into coastlines up to 3,000 miles away and killed people in 11 Asian and African nations. Sri Lanka reported 28,500 deaths and India more than 7,300. A total of more than 400 were killed in Malaysia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, the Maldives, Somalia, Tanzania and Kenya. Thailand's government announced its toll had doubled to more than 4,500 people - including 2,230 foreigners - and hopes faded survivors would be found. Teams of forensic experts packed bodies in dry ice. The World Bank pledged $250 million for the victims, bringing the total amount of promised international relief money to close to half a billion dollars, U.N. officials said. Countries continued to increase their pledges: China on Friday said it would give $60 million. Australia upped its pledge by $20 million to $46.7 million. The Netherlands pledged $36.5 million. The Asian Development Bank said it would make available at least $325 million to Indonesia, Sri Lanka and the Maldives for reconstruction work. An emergency meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was called for Jan. 6 to discuss the disaster response. Relatives in Thailand refused to give up hope for missing family members. Canadian tourist Dan Kwan was still hunting for his parents. ``At this point we hope against hope that they are still alive somewhere,'' he said, adding it was possible they were unconscious. Rescue and identification teams from a dozen countries focused their efforts on a 20-mile stretch of beach in Phang Nga province, north of the internationally popular resort island of Phuket, where Interior Minister Bhokin Balakula said 3,500 bodies were recovered. On the Thai resort island of Phuket, people scoured photos pinned to notice boards of the dead and missing in scenes reminiscent of the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks in New York. Up to 5 million people around the tsunami-struck Indian Ocean do not have access to the basics they need to stay alive, the U.N. World Health Organization said. ``Unless the necessary funds are urgently mobilized and coordinated in the field we could see as many fatalities from diseases as we have seen from the actual disaster itself,'' said Dr. David Nabarro, head of crisis operations at WHO. http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/story.jsp...105&floc=NW_1-T ---

Western snow and rain 11:45 A.M. ET 12/31/2004 M. Ressler, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel A parade of upper-level disturbances continues to pound the West, particularly parts of California and Nevada. Travel in the Sierras will continue to be difficult through Saturday. Winter storm warnings will continue across the northern and central Sierra for 1 to 2 feet of additional snow on top of the 2 to 8 feet that have already fallen. Snow totals of greater than 12" are also possible in the northern coastal ranges of California through Saturday. Winter storm and heavy snow warnings are posted in Intermountain West for the Wasatch of Utah, the mountains of southeast Idaho and northern/central Nevada. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 feet are expected in the Wasatch by Saturday. Gusty winds combined with this snowfall will make travel very difficult or impossible in some locations. The mountains of L.A. and Ventura counties have winter storm warnings for significant snow accumulations with snow levels around 5000 feet. Rain is making a return to Southern California today for places such as Los Angeles and San Diego. Although rainfall amounts will not be anywhere near what they reached earlier this week, look out for localized areas of standing water on roads and more possible flooding in the burn areas. A potent disturbance coming into the Pacific Northwest will interact with a cold northeasterly flow to produce heavy snow east of the Cascades across southern Washington and northern Oregon with as much as 6 to 8 inches possible by late Saturday. Elsewhere, a low pressure system will bring a change from snow to sleet and freezing rain to rain in Maine. Looking ahead to the weekend, a storm system will pull into the central U.S. producing a broad area of snow from parts of Montana to Upper Michigan. Accumulations could range from as much as 4 to 8 inches in eastern Montana Saturday to between 8 and 12 inches in Upper Michigan by Sunday. South of the snow from eastern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota to southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, freezing rain and sleet could cause travel problems. The wintry mix will head into parts of the Northeast on Sunday.

West remains active, Eastern warmth continues 11:10 A.M. ET 12/31/2004 Chris Dolce, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel West Snow and rain continue to be the number one story as a series of storms allow for more messy weather and possible travel problems. As the next system pushes east rain will return to Southern California but will not pack as much punch as the storm earlier this week. More significant snowfall will be found in the Sierras, coastal ranges of Northern California and the Cascades of Oregon. Portions of the Intermountain West have winter storm and heavy snow warnings posted for areas such as central and northern Nevada, and the Wasatch. Southern California will also get in on the snow where winter storm warnings are posted for the mountains of L.A. and Ventura counties. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages for much of the west except in Montana where high temperatures will be 10 to 26 degrees below average. Northeast Interior portions of the region such as Upstate New York and western Pennsylvania have seen some showery rain today as a low pressure system advances eastward. Milder air is invading northern New England with a little freezing rain hanging on in northern New Hampshire, soon to change to rain. In northern and central Maine, snow will change to sleet and freezing rain and finally to rain by evening as temperatures rise above freezing. Temperatures are warming today with highs peaking from the 30s and 40s in Maine to the 60s in Virginia. Midwest Record highs were common for many locations on Thursday. Minneapolis topped out at 51 degrees which is 28 degrees above average. Similar examples of this warmth were found across much of the region. Temperatures will be colder on Friday for areas such as North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota as a cold front pushes southward. The rest of the region including the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will continue to see highs reaching levels that are well above average. A few rain showers linger in Kentucky while snow showers are possible near the Canadian border. With colder air moving into place from Nebraska, Iowa, northern Illinois and Michigan to the Canadian border, a new storm taking shape on Saturday will produce a zone of accumulating snow from North Dakota to Upper Michigan and freezing rain and sleet from eastern Nebraska to northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin. South Dry conditions will rule the entire region today, but expect showers to break out on Saturday in the lower Mississippi Valley. Mostly cloudy skies will be found in places such as Atlanta, Memphis and Dallas on this New Year's Eve. While partly cloudy conditions will be found in the Carolinas and Florida. Temperatures will be very warm on this last day of 2004 with highs in the 60s and 70s for much of the region with the exception of south Texas which will warm into the 80s. Expect the warm weather to continue into the New Year with highs reaching 10 to 20 degrees above average.

http://www.ourlearningspace.com/ecow.htm

Harry lied http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13086 Related WWBB thread Updated rules etc. Ignore previous rules thread. http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthre...?threadid=40003 I'm at a loss for words..., This is a nightmare http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13068 Today's get a life award goes to..........., Snarf! http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13072 Big Bang and the conservation of Angular Momentum! http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13024 Now THIS is a forecast, Damn shame its 2,800 miles away http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=12989 Washington, DC: No Need to Write Off Winter '04-05 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13008 NOAA Reports Record Number of Tornadoes in 2004, I will add to this thread in time... http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13046 Vote for the wx weenie of the year award http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13061 D7 ecmwf 12z; Poss significant development http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13057 Fox is a playa hata http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=12971&st=0 Another WWBB thread of interest Lake Cutter's Rules.....they stink http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthre...5017#post375017

Ah yeah, I gotta have this, if not anything else. Oh I'm SOOOO obsessed with recording things, if not for anyone else to look upon, then for me to store up on my jebwalk.com web pages. God knows how HUGE that site will become in a few years, with thousands of pages lol. (MdWx's sig) "well the lines look like you were drawing them while you were drunk....screwing a horse and on LSD other than that they look good" DT to LM on his attempt at a forecast map. (Freaky WxChick's sig) ALL Religions exhort man to cleanse the heart of malice, greed, hate and anger. All Religions hold out the gift of Grace as the prize for success in this cleaning process. Ideas of superiority and inferiority arise only in a heart corrupted by egoism. If someone argues that he is higher or that his Religion is holier, it proves that he has missed the significance of his faith. ~ Sathya Sai Baba (WEATHER53's sig) Not a moderator but sagacious beyond compare. (roardog's sig) I'm roardog and I approve this message. (Martinsville Weather's sig) "ok, everyone wants me to die, but what the heck." - rainstorm "I'm one of the biggest losers on this board." - Sickman (Allman's sig) It was a serious litigation when the lawman sees your eyes are red.....Jah Works Band Baltimore Maryland. HARRY BEND OVER BOOOOOOY. WHOOOOOS YOUN DAAADY BIATCH. -allman15 See this thread: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13086 (Jonathan416's sig) "i would rather stick needles in my balls than listen to the stupidest imost ignoramt weenie as$ hole of all time... Go suck eggs your blow hole" -DT to ~Floydbuster about his radio show on 12/12/04 "if there is a God in heaven durimg the Ice storm for your location the power will fail.... a transformer will explode and a bolt of electircal discharge will come thru your chimmey and fry your nuts clean off." -DT to Widre on Christmas MECS possibility from NC-ME on 12/17/04 (zwyts' sig circa Jan 3 2005) Mt. Pleasant, Washington DC Snowfall Stats, 185' Average Annual Snowfall: 17.5" 2004-2005 Snowfall: 0.25" 12/15/04 - T, 12/19/04 - 0.25", 12/20/04 - T 2003-2004 Snowfall - 13.5" 2002-2003 Snowfall - 41" I like your smile but I ain't your type Don't shake the tree when the fruit ain't ripe (CTshoreWx's sig) "I am jsut trying to go about my business and Will is telling me to die." - Floydbuster (Bomb's sig) I DO TRUST THE GFS ABOUT AS FAR AS I CAN THROW IT IN THE MID RANGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PROVEN IN RESEARCH TO BE SUPERIOR OVER TIME IN THE MID RANGE. THIS HAS BEEN SEEN LATELY IN THE GFS...FLIP-FLOPPING LIKE A FISH ON A BOAT. -Goodman - NWS Upton --

Well Harry (King of Weather) LakeCutter whatever!! came to EUSWX this morning (Dec 30) and posted there on this thread. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13022 Later on that day, MdWx discovered that Harry lied and so MdWx posted as such on this thread. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=13086 So Harry was playacting, acting angry and provoking posters on EUSWX early today then going on back to WWBB where he altered his original RULES ETC post at WWBB. Here is the altered version: This is Harry's IP. IP: 172.153.76.46 --

Larry Cosgrove posted this over at EUSWX on December 5 2004. I am posting it here for educational purposes only. Friends A primer that I wrote on recognizable storm tracks was available until recently on the Florida State University graduates website. I was informed that the link was no longer operable. So below, until I can get a new page with graphics describing the subject, is a rundown on STORM TRACK types seen across North America. This may explain some of the titles for midlatitude cyclones that you hear frequently in technical discussions. Larry Cosgrove STORM TRACK CLIMATOLOGY For The United States Glossary: Designations Of 500mb Cyclones Shortwave Usually a free-moving impulse that follows the mean jet stream wind field rather than changing the flow pattern. Noted on upper air charts by lack of closed height contours, though some intense shortwaves may exhibit a closed signature temporarily. Longwave A semi-stationary disturbance that affects the general weather for a synoptic-scale area. Circulation is always closed, and often shows up in seasonal means for the territory which it is located in. Hybrid Seen as a steadily moving, geographically large storm that combines the coverage of longwave storms with short-term impacts of the shortwave family of disturbances. May not have a closed-contoured 500mb low center, but usually is widely difluent at the midpoint. Trough Any upper disturbance that covers a synoptic-scale area without a dominant maximum center of vorticity. Often, the emphasis of energy is with frontal boundaries and not the surface low pressure center. Height contour field shows little separation, just a noticeable ‘U’ or ‘V’ signature in accordance with pressure falls at the surface. Subtropical Cyclones Disturbances which combine some aspects of a tropical feature with those of cold-core mid-latitude cyclones. Remnant Cutoff Lows Best described as northern stream energy that becomes stationary, weakens, and may later rejoin the westerlies as an active disturbance. Bombogenesis Rapidly intensifying storm systems that exhibit a pressure drop of at least 25 millibars in less than twelve hours time. The process, colloquially termed ‘bombing out’ happens when dynamic and synoptic parameters for cyclone development are ideal. This may include: extremely high velocities in the upper jet stream; cross-polar flow into the cold sector of the storm; equatorial 'breach', whereupon mTw air transverses the equator and flows into the disturbances warm sector; and topographic/oceanographic enhancement of the thermal and pressure fields (lee of mountains or over a particularly warm body of water). Bombogenesis also signifies the development of a new longwave feature. Notable examples of Bombogenesis: 1) January 23-24 1978 Atlanta GA….Dayton OH 2) March 13 1993 Central Gulf of Mexico 3) November 10 1998 Concordia KS….St. Cloud MN 4) April 3 1974 Dodge City KS….Cedar Rapids IA 5) January 8 1996 Coastal SC, NC Surface Storm Families Gulf Of Alaska Cyclones Cyclogenesis Aleutian Islands Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 958mb to 992mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow, Semistationary; May last up to 10 days Typical Storm Track Attu Island AK….250 mi S Anchorage AK….300 mi W Juneau AK Upper Air Structure Longwave, Closed Low; emits numerous small shortwave-type lows that slam into coastal sections from AK southward to near San Francisco CA Apparent Weather Extremely high winds within 400 miles of surface center; heavy rains with resultant flooding/mudslides along and west of coastal mountains ranges from AK Panhandle to Bay Area of CA. Mountain snows tend to vary with height, dependent upon positions of associated shortwave impulses. Some convection in highly unstable marine environment after passage of related impulses (diurnal-dependent). If the vortex and its associated trough link with the subtropical/southern branch jet stream, rainfall can be torrential. The worst-case scenario for these eastern Pacific Ocean systems is to tap mTw values from south of the Hawaiian Islands chain. This is often called the 'Pineapple Express'. Likelihood Of Occurrence September 1 to May 1 Aleutian Lows Cyclogenesis Kamchatka Peninsula Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 958mb to 992mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow, Semistationary; May last up to 20 days Typical Storm Track Karaginsky Island Russia….Amchitka Island AK Upper Air Structure Longwave, Closed Low; emits numerous small shortwave-type lows that dig southeastward into coastal sections from OR southward to near Tijuana Baja CA Norte Apparent Weather Extremely high winds within 400 miles of surface center; heavy rains with resultant flooding/mudslides along and west of coastal mountains ranges from OR to Baja CA. Mountain snows tend to vary with height, dependent upon positions of associated shortwave impulses. Some convection in highly unstable marine environment after passage of related impulses (diurnal-reactive). The Aleutian low is a semi-permanent feature during El Nino events, and may reappear with frequency during the entire low-sun period. Classic ENSO signature split flow at 500mb derives its energy from the Aleutian low. Likelihood Of Occurrence September 1 to May 1 Grand Banks Vortex Cyclogenesis Coastal regions of Maine or Maritime Provinces Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 946mb to 990mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow, Semistationary; May last up to 20 days Typical Storm Track Gander NWF to position 200 mi NE St. John NWF Upper Air Structure Longwave, Closed Low; emits numerous small shortwave-type lows that dig southeastward into Maritime Provinces of Canada, then continuing toward Europe. Apparent Weather Extremely high winds within 400 miles of surface center;). The Outer Banks vortex can be a semi-permanent feature during El Nino events, and may reappear with frequency during the entire low-sun period. This vortex forms the eastern anchor of an ENSO ‘split flow’ signature. Presence of vortex translates to raw, cold weather for most of Atlantic Canada, and may pose huge problems for shipping and fishing concerns over the far northern Atlantic Ocean. Likelihood Of Occurrence September 1 to May 1 Hudson Bay Vortex Cyclogenesis Northwest Territories Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 966mb to 1000mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow, Semistationary; May last up to 20 days Typical Storm Track Yellowknife NWT….Port Churchill MB….Belcher Islands Upper Air Structure Longwave, Closed Low. May spin shortwave energy from Arctic Circle southeastward into Canada and the Lower 48 states of the U.S. Often this vortex will anchor steering 500mb trough over North America. Apparent Weather In itself, the Hudson’s Bay vortex is not known as a major weathermaker. Rather, the importance of this feature lies in its role as a steering mechanism for shortwave-based storms and for delivering cold air. The farther south this vortex is situated, the colder it will be in the U.S. east of the Continental Divide. For instance, during extended cA outbreaks in winters of 1976-77 and 1983-84, the mean position of this system was over MI. In El Nino years, the Hudson’s Bay vortex is often nonexistent (exception: the unusual 1976-77 cold season!). Likelihood Of Occurrence Year round; chief importance of feature is September 1 through May 1. Kona Low Cyclogenesis Central Pacific Ocean Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 976mb to 1004mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow, Semistationary; May last up to 10 days Typical Storm Track Meandering east-southeast path along and north of Hawaiian Island Chain Upper Air Structure Longwave, Closed Low. May gradually take on characteristics of subtropical disturbance as system intakes mT air and structurally warms at upper levels. Apparent Weather Kona-type lows are important for two reasons. One, they represent one of the few systems to threaten HI with severe convection (a result of mPk air moving so far south into the tropics) and persistent heavy rains (normal trade wind relationships over the Hawaiian Islands are reversed). Secondly, a deep Kona signature (500mb heights lower than 555dcm) will favor amplification of western North America blocking ridges. Cold-core lows at this latitude teleconnect well to very warm Omega signatures over AK and the Yukon Territory. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 1 through April 1. Bermuda Low Cyclogenesis Anywhere along the eastern seaboard of North America Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 966mb to 1004mb Speed Of Motion Erratic, Looping and very slow; May last up to 10 days Typical Storm Track Savannah GA….100 mi E Myrtle Beach SC….125 mi E Cape Hatteras NC….300 mi W Bermuda (then stationary) Upper Air Structure Longwave, Closed Low; emits isolated small shortwave-type lows that tend to move northward or northwestward toward Northeast U.S. May also absorb tropical features, or even convert to subtropical status (e.g., Halloween 1991 storm). Apparent Weather There is a counterpart to the famed ‘Bermuda High’, but the rate of occurrence for this feature is relatively rare, usually once every 9 years. The most common synoptic setup for a Bermuda Low is a cold season ‘Gulf Coaster’ that evolves into a longwave feature after leaving the U.S. (e.g. March 1967). But other scenarios involve retrogressive Nor’easters (October 1968) and remnant cutoff lows that incorporate polar shortwaves and/or tropical features (October 1991). Key forecast feature to look for is Omega block ridge in vicinity of NWF. A variety of weather types can be expected, dependent upon season. Heavy, almost unexpected snowfalls may reach the Mid-Atlantic states during the winter; usually a prolonged rain/drizzle episode for eastern seaboard is the norm for such an event. Deep cyclogenesis (combinant structures) can sometimes produce a dazzling outburst of gradient wind and beach erosion. Likelihood Of Occurrence Year-round, though most likely September 1 to May 1. California/Great Basin Storms Cyclogenesis Northeast Of Hawaiian Islands Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 976mb to 1008mb Speed Of Motion Normal to Rapid; Sequence Lasts About 4-5 days Typical Storm Track 300 mi E Honolulu HI….400 mi W Los Angeles CA….Santa Barbara CA…Winslow AZ Upper Air Structure Shortwave evolving to Hybrid Type Apparent Weather Extremely heavy rains for S, C CA, S NV, AZ; Mountain snows of up to 2 feet in those regions. Tornadoes and microbursts are possible along and south of storm track, with or without apparent sunshine. Snow level after passage may drop to near 1000 feet temporarily. Storms tend to dissipate after they reach S UT. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 1 to April 15 Washington/Great Basin Storms Cyclogenesis Coastal Islands Of British Columbia Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 990mb to 1012mb Speed Of Motion Rapid; Sequence Lasts About 2-3 days Typical Storm Track Victoria BC….Portland OR….Lake Tahoe NV….Phoenix AZ….Santa Fe NM Upper Air Structure Shortwave Apparent Weather Bursts of heavy rain or snow that last 3-6 hours, concurrent with passage of 500mb vorticity maximum. Convection quite likely, with risks of microbursts, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Precipitation area usually quite small, no more than 400 miles. These storms may bring snow to very low latitude locations such as Las Vegas NV, Phoenix AZ, Albuquerque NM. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 15 to April 1 Mogollan Rim Storms Cyclogenesis Northern Mexico, Extreme West Texas, New Mexico Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 988mb to 1004mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow; Sequence Lasts About 5-6 days Typical Storm Track San Jose CA....Sonora Mexico….El Paso TX Upper Air Structure Longwave (Smaller scale cutoff low) Apparent Weather Profuse heavy snow over mountains of southwestern U.S.; worst effects N AZ and N NM. Some locations may receive upwards of 4 feet of snow. Rains or scattered convection possible along Mexican border, though if cA air becomes entrained snow may reach cities such as Phoenix AZ, Tucson AZ, and El Paso TX. Precipitation lasts until upper low fills, which may take a number of days. Cold cutoff low becomes stationary beneath trapping ridge and slowly fills. Likelihood Of Occurrence November 15 to April 15 Colorado/Limon Cyclones Cyclogenesis Colorado Front Range between Denver and Fort Collins Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 960mb to 994mb Speed Of Motion Very Slow; Sequence Lasts About 5-6 days Typical Storm Track Boulder CO….Limon CO….Colby KS….Grand Island NE….Huron SD….Redwood Falls MN….Virginia MN….Kenora ONT Upper Air Structure Longwave (Large scale cutoff low); usually starts out as digging shortwave over WA state and closes off over CO Apparent Weather Varies wildly with respect to low center, which is usually vertical with 500mb core. Along and 200 miles to left of storm path, blizzard conditions with up to two feet of snow and gale-force winds are likely. Westward variant of this type can produce incredible snows over Black Hills region (up to 90 inches not out of question). If cA air is being displaced northeast of low center, portions of N IA, MN, and WI may receive heavy freezing rain and sleet. Warm sector characterized by strong southerly winds (30-50 mph), large squall lines with damaging winds (though dry intrusion will greatly limit rainfall amounts. A secondary cold front convective episode may occur near the low center, where snow area meets sun-warmed parcels. As the low moves northeastward it slowly fills, leaving only light/moderate stratiform rains from NE KS/NW MO through much of IA, WI, and N IL. Systems such as these seldom affect the eastern third of the nation as they aid in pumping up downstream ridging. The first appearance of this storm track type is usually an indication that winter season pattern is over and that a new, springlike weather trend is starting. Likelihood Of Occurrence February 1 to May 1 Great Plains Dusters Cyclogenesis Wyoming or Colorado Front Range Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 968mb to 992mb Speed Of Motion Normal; sequence takes 3 to 4 days Typical Storm Track Cheyenne WY….Scottsbluff NE….Council Bluffs IA….LaCrosse WI….Cadillac MI….Timmins ONT Upper Air Structure Hybrid (Large scale trough with identifiable 500mb low center); usually starts out as digging shortwave over WA and deepens over WY or CO Apparent Weather One of the worst types of storm types, in that anything and everything is possible. Difluence in upper air structure usually accompanies very high velocities in associated jet stream, creating massive array of precipitation. Tendency for low central pressures offers a like inclination to strong surface gradient wind field. Moderate to heavy snows, near blizzard conditions north of track; sleet and freezing rain on southern edge of snow area. Stratiform rains of moderate intensity in overrunning sector. Dust storms in dry slot. Numerous severe thunderstorms in warm sector. A storm of this type caused the famed ‘Palm Sunday’ outbreak of tornadoes in 1964. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 1 through June 15 Panhandle Hook (A) Cyclogenesis Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 986mb to 1014mb Speed Of Motion Normal to Rapid; sequence takes 2 to 4 days Typical Storm Track Roswell NM….Amarillo TX….Chanute KS….Springfield MO….Effingham IL….Lafayette IN….Adrian MI….London ONT….Amos QB Upper Air Structure Shortwave, though may begin or end life cycle as closed upper low Apparent Weather Noted for precipitation in cold and overrunning sectors. This track is one of two that are climatologically favored to bring heavy snowfall to cities such as Kansas City MO; Des Moines IA; Milwaukee WI; Chicago IL. Can also generate crippling ice storms just north and east of path (Wichita KS; Columbia MO; Quincy IL; Gary IN; Lansing MI; Detroit MI; Flint MI; Sarnia ONT). May also exhibit strong warm-sector convection, though normally does not favor tornadic signatures. Classic Panhandle Hook 'A' storm was the Great Chicago Blizzard of January 1979. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 15 through May 1 Panhandle Hook (cool.gif Cyclogenesis Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 968mb to 1008mb Speed Of Motion Normal to Rapid; sequence takes 2 to 4 days Typical Storm Track Tucumcari NM….Perryton TX….Wichita KS….Omaha NE ….Newton IA….St. Paul MN….Ishpeming MI….Wawa ONT….Moosonee ONT Upper Air Structure Hybrid Cyclone through lifetime Apparent Weather Similar in structure and character to Great Plains Duster storms, though much larger in geographic scope. Notable for two historical storms: Tornadic Super Outbreak system of April 3,4 1974 and ‘Edmund Fitzgerald’ disaster of November 10, 1975. Also seen recently in November 10, 1998 storm where new records were set for lowest barometric pressure across portions of SD, IA, and MN. Panhandle Hook B cyclones are the ultimate generators of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, characterized by extremely high jet stream velocities. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 15 through May 1 Colorado/Trinidad Storms (A) Cyclogenesis Southern Colorado, Northern New Mexico Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 984mb to 1010mb Speed Of Motion Normal; lifetime of 3-4 days after cyclogenesis Typical Storm Track Trinidad CO….Anthony KS….Springfield MO….Effingham IL….Muncie IN….Toledo OH….St. Catherines ONT….Alma QB Upper Air Structure Usually starts as a remnant 500mb cutoff low, evolves into shortwave structure Apparent Weather Major snow producer during winter and spring for sections of the West and Midwest. Usually starts out life as a cutoff low over southwestern states, then lifted out as additional energy from BC/AB digs southward as a ‘kicker’, and eventually phases with the older system to produce a large-scale, accelerating shortwave that may mimic the Panhandle Hook A storms. Not known for damaging warm-sector convection, but may produce incredible ice storms and even blizzards. Two Colorado/Trinidad A storms produced massive snows in Chicago IL during January 1967. Likelihood Of Occurrence November 1 through April 15 Colorado/Trinidad Storms (cool.gif Cyclogenesis Southern Colorado, Northern New Mexico Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 978mb to 1004mb Speed Of Motion Normal to slow; lifetime of 5-6 days after cyclogenesis Typical Storm Track Trinidad CO….Liberal KS….Independence KS….Paducah KY….Hazard KY….Roanoke VA….Wicomico VA….200 mi S Nantucket MA Upper Air Structure Usually starts as shortwave, evolves into closed longwave structure Apparent Weather Different from Case 'A' Trinidad cyclones in upper structure and general effects. More southerly track results in heavy snow/ice band affecting these cities: Denver CO; Kansas City MO; St. Louis MO; Indianapolis IN; Columbus OH; Pittsburgh PA; and all major cities of the Northeast U.S. Unlike the ‘A’ signature storms, intense convection may occur, especially over the South (deepening trough intersects mT air). May be prone to coastal redevelopment off VA Capes (about 1 in 4 cases). Precipitation amounts may be extremely heavy over Mid-Atlantic states as the low may utilize deep Caribbean mTw air as well as mP Atlantic parcels. Likelihood Of Occurrence November 15 through April 1 Border Trackers Cyclogenesis British Columbia Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 988mb to 1000mb Speed Of Motion Rapid; coast-to-coast sequence in 2 to 3 days Typical Storm Track Victoria BC….Banff AB….International Falls MN….Quebec City QB….Bathurst N Br Upper Air Structure Shortwave or Hybrid, transitional from semizonal flow to building trough Apparent Weather High winds along and north of about 40 deg N Latitude; Very strong warm advection south of main storm track; Sparse precipitation in warm sector, excepting ‘January Thaw’ period. Border Tracker storms in mid-January draw up huge reserves of mT air from the Gulf of Mexico; as a result numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms may occur. Locales close to storm track may experience sleet or freezing rain; snow relegated to Canadian sectors of storm. Likelihood Of Occurrence Year-round Alberta Clippers Cyclogenesis Alberta or Montana, to lee of Rocky Mountains Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 982mb to 1018mb Speed Of Motion Rapid; 1-3 day life of system Typical Storm Track Edmonton AB….Miles City MT….Pierre SD….Shenandoah IA….Ouincy IL….Fort Wayne IN….Akron OH….Buffalo NY….Quebec City QB….Labrador City LBR Upper Air Structure Shortwave rotating around circumpolar vortex over Hudson’s Bay or James Bay Apparent Weather One of the most misunderstood of all storm tracks. Alberta Clipper systems exhibit a rapid, parabolic motion accompanied by great deepening and intense bursts of wind at surface and aloft. While moisture may be lacking, a typical ‘Clipper’ may generate ground blizzards with tremendous advection of cold air. Typical cold sector snows are in the order of 1-3 inches, though up to 8 inches is not entirely unheard of. Unlike many mid-latitude cyclones, the heaviest snowfall occurs along and just north of the path of the 500mb vorticity maximum. There can be a wide range of deviation from the ‘typical’ Alberta Clipper path. Some ‘clippers’ imitate the Border Tracker storms. But all have this one feature in common: they are a product of leeside cyclogenesis in AB or MT. One subfamily may take a more south and east path (Miles City MT….O’Neill NE….Kirksville MO….Evansville IN….Bluefield WV….Ocean City MD….200 mi SE Martha’s Vineyard MA), resulting in heavy snows over portions of the Northeast U.S.; the Atlantic Ocean is used as a moisture source while cA air presses toward the coast. Likelihood Of Occurrence November 15 through April 1 Great Lakes Backdoor Storms Cyclogenesis Manitoba or extreme northwest Ontario Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 990mb to 1014mb Speed Of Motion Rapid; 1-3 day life of system Typical Storm Track Port Churchill MB….Thunder Bay ONT….Lansing MI….Steubenville OH….Baltimore MD….Cape May NJ….100 mi SE Provincetown MA Upper Air Structure Shortwave rotating around circumpolar vortex over Hudson’s Bay or James Bay Apparent Weather Resembles an Alberta Clipper in terms of structure, speed, and precipitation array; but causal mechanism is purely dynamical, along leading edge of deep cA air mass. Often, this storm type signals a southward displacement of the circumpolar vortex. Practical forecast considerations are advection of deep cAk air; lake-enhanced blizzards along the southeast shore of all major lakes; and sometimes surprise heavy snows for the Northeast U.S., using Atlantic Ocean as a moisture source. Rarity of occurrence may make for poor prediction odds. Likelihood Of Occurrence November 15 through April 1 Southland Tempest (a.k.a. El Nino Express) Cyclogenesis Central or Eastern Pacific Ocean Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 982mb to 1000mb Speed Of Motion Normal (3-5 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track 300 mi NE Honolulu HI….300 mi W Los Angeles CA….Santa Barbara CA….Flagstaff AZ….Albuquerque NM….Muskogee OK….Tupelo MS….Atlanta GA….Myrtle Beach SC….250 mi E Cape Hatteras NC Upper Air Structure Shortwave that deepens into a hybrid 500mb signature Apparent Weather Mimics other storm types but occurs only during an El Nino episode. Cyclogenesis usually occurs when jet splits into two branches north of Hawaiian Islands. Then system gather huge fetch of mTw air from equatorial Pacific Ocean and crash into S or C CA. Redevelopment of main surface low can occur as much as twice in lifetime of this storm category (lee of Rocky Mountains in NM, lee of Appalachian Mountains in SC). Forecast concerns are heavy rain (5-10 inch amounts not uncommon in CA west-facing slopes of mountains; further east 2-4 inch totals are likely); severe weather (tornado/wind damage a frequent result anywhere along or south and east of track); elevation and nocturnal snows (frequently can create heavy snowfall even over Deep South, as in December 1997 storm over LA/MS); and gradient-produced wind and beach erosion (CA as well as Atlantic coast). 1 in 4 Southland Tempests will turn up Atlantic seaboard as Nor’easters. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 1 through May 15 Gulf Coasters Cyclogenesis Southern or central Texas Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 978mb to 1004mb Speed Of Motion Normal to slow (3-7 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track Austin TX….Leesville LA….McComb MS….Montgomery AL….Augusta GA….Charleston SC….300 mi S Cape Hatteras NC Upper Air Structure Shortwave that deepens into a longwave signature Apparent Weather Track is superficially similar to El Nino-related storms, but differs in region of cyclogenesis, speed, and air mass structure. This type of low may create widespread heavy snow/ice even without regard to elevation or time of day, and can draw cA values into the Gulf of Mexico. Also notorious for severe weather in its warm sector, namely over Florida, which can experience numerous supercell tornadoes. 1 out of 4 Gulf Coasters will make a northward recurvature and become a Nor’easters. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 15 through May 1 Peninsula Storms Cyclogenesis Eastern Gulf of Mexico Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 972mb to 1000mb Speed Of Motion Normal (2-5 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track 100 mi N Key West FL….75 mi W Tampa FL….Cedar Key FL….Brunswick GA….100 mi E Charleston SC….300 mi E Wilmington NC Upper Air Structure Longwave storm that eventually phases with higher-latitude trough Apparent Weather Rare track has origins in thermal boundary over eastern Gulf of Mexico. Stationary (but relatively deep) upper low is kicked out by digging full-latitude trough, eventually phasing with dominant system east of NC by the end of its life. Because of often extreme baroclinicity (high SSTs vs. incoming cA air), Peninsula Storms can deepen dramatically. It is this track which will bring the FL Peninsula anything from numerous tornadoes to ice storms (e.g., December 1990). A subtropical variant during the fall is capable of large-scale severe weather outbreaks as well (October 1992). Likelihood Of Occurrence October 1 through April 15 Galveston Bay Spin-Ups (a.k.a. Western Gulf Cyclones) Cyclogenesis Western Gulf Of Mexico, East Texas, Louisiana Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 980mb to 1008mb Speed Of Motion Normal to Rapid (2-4 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track Galveston TX….Coushatta LA….Jackson TN….Lexington KY….Cleveland OH….Plattsburgh NY….Schefferville QB Upper Air Structure Shortwave, sometimes evolving into a longwave feature over QB Apparent Weather Cyclogenesis occurs on a stationary cP/mT front along TX Gulf Coast; thermal relationship with warm SSTs are suspected as a causal mechanism. Impulse is picked up in broad 500mb trough and swept toward Lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. Realm of high dewpoints expanding rapidly northeastward favors extreme overrunning, with heavy rain likely along and to right of storm track. If cPk or cA air masses are dislodged, considerable snow and ice may result. Likelihood Of Occurrence November 1 through April 15 Chattanooga Choo-Choos Cyclogenesis Northern Alabama, Northwest Georgia, Eastern Tennessee Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 988mb to 1008mb Speed Of Motion Normal to Rapid (2-4 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track Chattanooga TN….Raleigh NC….Salisbury MD….200 mi S Nantucket MA Upper Air Structure Shortwave Apparent Weather Odd name (often credited to New York City television weathercaster Tex Antoine) is of course derived from familiar song and the region of cyclogenesis. Notorious for not behaving according to forecast guidance. Some storms of this type will move directly over the large cities of the Northeast U.S., bringing rain. Others tend to stay south of prediction schemes, thus drawing in cold air and bringing unforeseen heavy ice and snow. Chattanooga storms may also provide intense convection to the Carolinas. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 15 through May 1 Piedmont Cyclones Cyclogenesis Florida, Georgia, South Carolina Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 968mb to 1000mb Speed Of Motion Varies (anywhere from 2-8 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track Valdosta GA….Greenville SC….Roanoke VA….Lancaster PA….Albany NY….Bangor ME….Gander NWF Upper Air Structure All types; longwave 500mb low has the most impact Apparent Weather Often confused with Nor’easters, this is actually a unique inland storm variety that owes its genesis to the Appalachian Mountains as opposed to the Gulf Stream. A wave develops on a stationary front over the Southeast, then moves along the east slopes of the Blue Ridge and into New England. Piedmont cyclones are noted more for heavy rain production than anything else, but occasionally will produce an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across the Atlantic coastal plain (e.g., November 15, 1988 in the Northeast). Heavy snows may also develop in cold sector; this is favored heavy snow track for Pittsburgh PA, Buffalo NY, and Toronto ONT. Likelihood Of Occurrence October 1 through May 1 Nor’easters (a.k.a. Hatteras Lows, Coastal Lows) Cyclogenesis Coastal waters of South Carolina, North Carolina, or Virginia Lowest Surface Pressure To Be Expected 962mb to 1004mb Speed Of Motion Varies (anywhere from 2-8 day life cycle) Typical Storm Track 100 mi E Charleston SC….Cape Hatteras NC….100 mi E Wallops Island VA….150 mi E Atlantic City NJ….50 mi E Nantucket MA….200 mi S Halifax NS Upper Air Structure Shortwave transforming to closed longwave low Apparent Weather Classic storm of the eastern seaboard, there are actually three subfamilies comprising the type: 1) Those disturbances purely related to activities in the southern branch of the jet stream, where El Nino Express and Gulf Coaster lows simply turn up the coast by recurving in a north-northeast direction. Such storms are noted for flooding rains, high winds, and coastal flooding/erosion. 2) Another scenario occurs when a deep 500mb cutoff low is kicked out and phased with an incoming northern stream shortwave. An example of this scenario is the March 1993 Superstorm. It is this category which can produce weather extremes in all storm quadrants, and also variations in track such as northwest recurvature upon reaching the Northeast. 3) The last, and classic, type of Nor’easter is when a polar or Arctic stream shortwave digs southeastward from the Great Lakes, reforming into a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. This form represents the best potential for heavy snowfall across the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. Caveat: if a cPk or cA anticyclone is not present over ONT or QB, holding cold profile in place, precipitation will likely change to rain over the Atlantic coastal plain. Likelihood Of Occurrence Year-round; most likely span of occurrence is October 15 through May 1. Disclaimer: The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Copyright 1998 by Larry Cosgrove All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the author. -