Jeb

Tropical Storm LISA 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300228 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER ...CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE IS SHALLOW WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. A 29/1657Z CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE WAS 981.7 MB AND A 29/2048Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED ONE 60-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTOR...SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL 50-55 KT UNFLAGGED VECTORS...IN THE DRY SLOT REGION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT... DESPITE THE MUCH LOWER DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/09. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTH...LISA IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE THE GFDL APPEARING TO BE AN EXTREME WESTERN OUTLIER MODEL THAT IS PRODUCING A CONSENSUS WEST BIAS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS GRADUALLY CLOSING. LISA HAS A SHALLOW EYE FEATURE AND WILL BE OVER 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...WHILE REMAINING UNDER VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION AROUND THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. BY 24 HOURS... LISA WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C AND LOWER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 31.5N 46.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 32.8N 47.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 34.7N 47.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 36.7N 47.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 38.6N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0000Z 42.5N 37.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$

Tropical breather 9:24 p.m. ET ET Wed.,Sep.29,2004 John Desjardins, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Frances, Ivan, Jeanne. Three hurricanes which roared across the eastern U.S. in September, leaving extensive damage and widespread flooding in their wake. With Jeanne's exit off the Northeast coast Wednesday morning, September will end on a quiet note across the tropics. There is only one named system in the Atlantic, and that is Tropical Storm Lisa. While the storm may briefly strengthen to a hurricane, its demise is imminent as it heads north and encounters shear. In the western Pacific, yet another tropical system has impacted Japan. Typhoon Meari raked across the island chain on Wednesday, causing significant wind damage and flooding. At least eleven fatalities and over 50 injuries were attributed to the cyclone. It is the eighth typhoon to affect Japan this season.

Month to end on a quiet note 9:04 P.M. ET 9/29/2004 John Desjardins, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Northeast The remnants of once-powerful Hurricane Jeanne moved off the Northeast coast Wednesday morning. The lone vestige of the storm will be occasional gusty winds across Southern New England, which will continue to diminish through the overnight hours. Partly cloudy skies will return to most of New England on Thursday. An upper-level disturbance spread clouds over the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and this pesky feature will linger on Thursday. As moisture gets pulled in from the Atlantic, showers will develop across eastern Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Look for showers to move into New Jersey and the New York City metro area during the afternoon. The good news is that this shower activity is expected to be light. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s, with 70s more widespread south of the Mason-Dixon Line. South Abundant sunshine will continue across most of the South on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms will straggle across the Florida Peninsula. Also, in western Texas, afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop as a piece of an upper-level trough ejects from the Southwest. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and damaging wind a possibility. Highs will generally be in the 80s region wide. Look for cooler 70s across the Tennessee Valley, while the mercury climbs into the 90s in South Texas. West A trough across the Southwestern U.S. will cause another unsettled day across the region on Thursday. Once again, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread across the southern and central Rockies. Portions of New Mexico, Arizona, and Utah saw severe weather Wednesday afternoon. While showers and storms are still in the forecast for Thursday, the severe threat will push eastward into the southern Plains. By late in the day, a cold front will begin to dip into Montana. Light showers are possible ahead of this front. After some morning clouds along the coast, you can expect abundant sunshine from Washington southward through California. High temperatures in these areas will be in the 70s, with some 80s. Look for 90s in the Southwest deserts. Cooler highs in the 50s and 60s will linger across the Rockies. A noticeable cool-down will move into the High Plains for Friday. Midwest Big changes are in store for the Plains and Midwest in the days ahead. Wednesday saw plentiful sunshine with highs in the 70s from Missouri and Kansas into the Dakotas. The sunny skies you saw across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys will last for at least one more day on Thursday. But a strong cold front will blow through the region by the weekend. A few showers are possible across the northern Plains on Thursday, but showers and thunderstorms will be more numerous on Friday and push into the Lower Midwest on Saturday. High temperatures across the High Plains on Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s, with 50s and low 60s becoming more widespread across the remainder of the region through the weekend.

Please see: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/index.php http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=1 http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=7 http://www.stormtrack.org/ The front page features major weather stories.

Please go to: http://www.wflxfox29.com/Global/story.asp?...77&nav=2JWhPpLQ

HUGE photo gallery of IVAN damage: http://www.nola.com/hurricane/ivan/gallery/aftermath.ssf

For example: The case against Florida http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30961 A very professionally done page by WXMAN57: http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/ http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Goldenberg/science01.pdf IVAN pics thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=48319 http://community.webshots.com/album/193360211WeIaXp This Pensacola News Journal gallery has an overwhelming amount of horrific hurricane damage pics: http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/g...galleries.shtml http://www.wpmi.com/news/local/story.aspx?...0D-FFC169A95D27 FEMA workers sleeping in tents Last Update: 9/29/2004 5:31:19 PM Posted By: Devin Walker (BALDWIN CO, Ala.) September 29 -- Thousands of out-of-state workers are on the Alabama Gulf Coast helping with storm clean up, but there are more people than hotel rooms. Where are they sleeping? It's hard work all day with perhaps an even harder night of relaxation as dozens of FEMA workers sleep on the ground under tents at a campground near Rosington. They hail from all over the country and are here to help clean up storm debris left by Hurricane Ivan. Timmy Peterson is from Killin, Mississippi. He told NBC 15's Leon Petite, "That ground gets a little hard. First three days we had to sleep in the truck." "Making that money. Money is good. I'll be glad when I get back home though to my bed. It's alright sleeping in these tents, but it gets tiresome after awhile," admitted FEMA worker Terrance Ladner. Hurricane Ivan damaged and destroyed homes, roads and businesses here on the Gulf Coast, but the storm also put thousands of people to work here in Alabama. Baldwin county residents are happy to see the storm debris removal crews come to town. Loxley resident Mike Ciaurro said, "We're real appreciative of the help. They're doing a good job. They were here early this morning really getting into it." The workers say they will spend several more weeks sleeping on the ground at the campground and say they are not leaving until the job is done. http://www.wpmi.com/news/local/story.aspx?...44-1FEE0D744436 More Florida/Alabama storm pics: http://www.florabama.com/hurricane_ivan.htm

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Interesting, but personally I do not like vBulletin. Still, this is an interesting community: http://www.vbulletin.com/forum/?styleid=4 One of their members, Jake Bunce: http://www.vbulletin.com/forum/member.php?u=2026 He has an interesting forum, Warcraft: http://www.mscclan.com/ http://www.mscclan.com/forum/index.php? Like this is the 100th post, folks.....

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Tropical Storm LISA 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291436 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LISA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE MORNING AS INDICATED BY A DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND...AND BETTER DEFINED CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE TYPE FEATURE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS BECOMING STRONGER. HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB WHERE 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT. OBSERVATIONS OF 45 KNOTS FROM SHIP ZCGH LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE CENTER AND 30 KNOTS FROM SHIP FQFL ABOUT 220 NM NE OF THE CENTER OF LISA WERE USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LISA WILL HELP REDUCE SHEAR IN 12 HOURS ALLOWING FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...LISA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE THROUGH 72 HOURS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.7N 45.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 31.1N 46.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 35.0N 48.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 36.5N 48.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 40.5N 44.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1200Z 44.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z 45.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$

Tropical Depression JEANNE 000 WTNT31 KWNH 291524 TCPAT1 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 64 FOR REMNANTS OF JEANNE NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004 ...THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC... FLOOD WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...SOUTH CAROLINA... AND FLORIDA. ALL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 11 AM EDT...15Z...THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EASTWARD AT 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. SELECTED 72 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 8 AM EDT: LOCATION STORM TOTAL NEW JERSEY... TRENTON 6.15 TETERBORO 4.45 NEWARK 3.67 MOUNT HOLLY 3.66 SOMERSET 3.62 PENNSYLVANIA... AMBLER 6.38 PHILADELPHIA-NE 5.77 CASHTOWN 5.00 HARRISBURG 3.90 MIDDLETOWN 3.58 DOYLESTOWN 3.33 WILLOW GROVE 2.93 ALLENTOWN 2.82 YORK 2.66 INDIANTOWN 2.34 WILLIAMSPORT 2.33 MOUNT POCONO 1.85 ALTOONA 1.76 SELINSGROVE 1.74 DELAWARE... WILMINGTON 5.79 DOVER 1.63 MASSACHUSETTS... NANTUCKET 5.73 MARTHAS VINEYARD 3.43 MILTON 3.34 NORWOOD 3.04 BOSTON 2.42 NEW YORK... WESTHAMPTON BEACH 5.61 NEW YORK CITY- CENTRAL PK 4.61 NEW YORK- LA GUARDIA 4.14 WHITE PLAINS 3.49 ORANGE COUNTY AIRPORT 2.88 POUGHKEEPSIE 2.70 MONTICELLO 1.62 CONNECTICUT... NEW HAVEN 2.40 MERIDEN 1.97 RHODE ISLAND... BLOCK ISLAND 4.14 WESTERLY 3.41 PROVIDENCE 2.75 MARYLAND... ANNAPOLIS 3.16 HAGERSTOWN 2.70 PATUXENT RIVER 2.14 BALTIMORE 1.37 VIRGINIA... BUSTED ROCK 11.81 NICHOLLS KNOB 7.89 CHARLOTTESVILLE 2.83 WASHINGTON NATIONAL 2.46 LYNCHBURG 2.25 QUANTICO 2.07 DANVILLE 1.72 DULLES 1.61 RICHMOND 1.13 FORT BELVOIR 1.01 WEST VIRGINIA... MARTINSBURG 3.26 BLUEFIELD 1.83 ELKINS 1.38 NORTH CAROLINA... MOUNT MITCHELL 4.75 WINSTON-SALEM 4.04 GREENSBORO 3.50 MONROE 3.15 ASHEVILLE 2.56 CHARLOTTE 2.30 HATTERAS 2.18 HICKORY 2.03 GASTONIA 2.00 BEAUFORT 1.61 FLORIDA... OCALA 6.89 GAINESVILLE 4.73 ORLANDO 4.17 JACKSONVILLE 4.14 LEESBURG 3.00 WINTER HAVEN 2.00 GEORGIA... VALDOSTA 7.01 MACON 5.30 ATLANTA 4.89 ALMA 3.94 DEKALB 3.63 PEACHTREE CITY 3.04 GAINSVILLE 2.52 FORT BENNING 1.76 SOUTH CAROLINA... ANDERSON COUNTY AIRPORT 4.29 GREENVILLE 3.93 GREENWOOD COUNTY AIRPORT 3.86 MCENTIRE 3.22 ORANGEBURG 3.15 OCONEE COUNTY AIRPORT 3.17 COLUMBIA 1.95 BEAUFORT 1.10 RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT...15Z...POSITION...THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST. MOVEMENT WAS EASTWARD AT 30 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM. ZIEGENFELDER $$

---------------------------------------------- Jan 9 2006 910pm Electric Hurricanes Three of the most powerful hurricanes of 2005 were filled with mysterious lightning. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/09....htm?list131253 COMET Winter Weather Distance Learning Course http://www.meted.ucar.edu/norlat/wwxdl_meted/ ********************************** Jan 9 2006 1231am US Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html ********************************** Jan 6 2006 622pm iCyclone http://www.icyclone.com/ ********************************** An interesting computer sim of a hurricane and its surge: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/i56_pns.gif Vaughan Chase Page: http://www.vaughanweather.com/chase/index.html http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...6/fp0_192.shtml Sean Borek's Weather Page: http://www.seansweatherwatch.com/ Severe Weather in the United Kingdom http://www.severewx.co.uk/ Severe Weather UK Forum http://www.severewx.co.uk/stormreports/

Only five quiet days in past two months 12:01 p.m. ET ET Wed.,Sep.29,2004 Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel There have been only five days since the beginning of August without an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane, and with Lisa still active in the central Atlantic, today is no exception. Tropical Storm Lisa is churning northward and could strengthen to a minimal hurricane by this evening, but poses no threat to the U. S. Meanwhile, a cluster of storms and squalls has flared up in the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles SSW of the Cape Verde Islands and bears watching. Closer to home, the remnants of Jeanne are sweeping northeastward away from New England this afternoon (see Storm Watch). In the western Pacific, Tropical Storm Meari (65 mph) is racing ENE through central Japan. The center of Meari is expected to be near Tokyo in about 8-10 hours.