Jeb Posted June 9, 2005 Report Share Posted June 9, 2005 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092039 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ARLENE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING WHEN THE SHEAR RELAXES AS THE UPPER-TROUGH WEAKENS IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THAT SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING. ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD...AND THAT PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...IT IS NOT AS FAST AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN SUMMARY...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OR PASS VERY NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. IT THEN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 20.2N 84.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.5N 84.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 88.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 13/1800Z 40.0N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092038 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE ALREADY AFFECTING CUBA...SQUALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.