Jeb Posted June 22, 2005 Report Share Posted June 22, 2005 Tropical Storm BEATRIZ Discussion 5 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/222049.shtml 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222049 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS PERSISTED DURING THE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5. ANOTHER REPORT FROM SHIP 9VVN NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND AGAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATED 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. TRMM AND SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 16Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/11. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. ON THIS REVISED TRACK...BEATRIZ SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS A BIT SOONER AND WILL PROBABLY REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFDL...SO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM GFDL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEVELOP A NEW SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAKENING BEATRIZ TO THE SOUTH...IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW WILL TRAVEL. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.5N 106.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tropical Storm BEATRIZ Forecast/Advisory http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/222049.shtml 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 222049 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 2100Z WED JUN 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 30SE 30SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN $$ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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