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Nat'l Weather (9pm) October 2 2004


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Another Midwest bone-chiller tonight

9:00 P.M. ET 10/2/2004


J. Erdman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel




High pressure will build in behind an aggressive cold front on Sunday in the Northeast. Behind the front, drier air will filter into the region scouring out moisture that had resulted in fog the past few days. Temperatures overnight will drop into the 40s across much of the interior northeast with a few 30s in some of the valleys of Upstate New York and western Pennsylvania. Frost advisories are posted in extreme northwest Pennsylvania and southwest New York state tonight. Following the cold start, afternoon highs will rise into the 50s in northern New England, 60s from the craggy Maine coast to the eastern Great Lakes and a few 70s in Maryland, Delaware and Virginia. Sunny, bright-blue skies will dominate the Northeast on Sunday. As a new cold front approaches the region on Monday clouds will be on the increase. In general the weather for the next two days in the Northeast will be great for leaf peeping.



Across the South the effects of the cold front will vary. The fog that has enveloped the central Appalachians and the Southeast for the past week will not be so prolific for the next few days. The moisture laden air that has lingered will be replaced with drier air on Sunday. As the front drifts into the South, a section will stall around the Southeast Coast and help trigger showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. In Texas the western tail of the front will stagnate or move north as a warm front. This movement will allow warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to stream into the Panhandle of Texas and the favored upslope region of southern Colorado and New Mexico setting the stage for scattered thunderstorm development Sunday. By Monday the thunderstorm and rain area will expand in coverage and intensity. The cold front will usher in some drier air as far south as Montgomery, Alabama and Jackson, Mississippi. South of this line the humidities will remain sticky. Temperatures in the South will generally top out in the 80s, except for a few stubborn 90s in Florida.



Those who have bought their pumpkins already may notice a layer of frost on them Sunday morning. The same expansive dome of high pressure that produced record cold from the Dakotas to Kansas Saturday morning should coat cars, and pumpkins, with frost Sunday morning from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes. Frost advisories are posted from Missouri to southwest New York State. Lows should bottom out in the 30s as far south as the hills of southern Missouri. Reinforcing cold air is on the way from Canada. Another vigorous cold front will slice its way into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. West to southwest winds ahead of this front, perhaps as high as 35 mph, will provide a brief warm-up for much of the region Sunday. Highs should recover into the 60s and 70s over much of the region, with a few 80s expected in the central Plains. Behind the on Monday, highs will likely not make it out of the 40s in the Iron Range of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Moisture from this southward diving front will be scant. Probably the most significant precipitation from this front will arrive behind it Sunday night into Monday, in the form of lake-effect rain and snow in the favored belts of Upper and northern Lower Michigan. Lake surface temperatures are still quite warm from the past summer season. Colder air flowing over these relatively warm waters will provide the instability for these bands of rain and snow. Any snow accumulations should remain in higher, inland locations on Monday.



With the exception of Colorado and New Mexico the West will enjoy perfect weather. High pressure will dominate the Pacific Northwest with warm, sunny days and cool evenings. Sunday will be a great day to head up into the mountains to see the golden Aspens before they reach their peak. There is a chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms from Colorado south into New Mexico on Sunday. An upper-level disturbance will mingle with warm moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico into the lee side of the Sangre de Cristos increasing the coverage and duration of showers and thunderstorms into the early part of the upcoming week. The cloud cover from the upslope event will keep temperatures mild from Colorado to the Texas Panhandle. The Great Basin, the California Central Valley, and the Desert Southwest will stay warm with temperatures from the 70s to the 90s on Sunday and Monday.

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