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Tropical Storm LISA Discussion 55 11PM EDT


Jeb
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Tropical Storm LISA

 

 

000

WTNT43 KNHC 030236

TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 55

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004

 

THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED. ALSO WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS LEFT

HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS MAX WINDS NEAR

50 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR LESS. SO THE INITIAL WIND

SPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. THE CENTER IS OVER THE 20 DEG SST

ISOTHERM OR LESS AND THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS A WHOPPING 40

KT. SO LISA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/23. LISA IS BEING SWEPT ALONG IN THE

WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS

EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

 

THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STORMS THERMAL STRUCTURE. BOB HARTS

FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS USING THE GFS AND CANADIAN 12Z MODEL

RUNS ANALYSES A COLD CORE STRUCTURE...WHILE THE UKMET IS WARM CORE

AND THE NOGAPS IS NEUTRAL. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE TRANSITION TO A

COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE WILL BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS IF IT IS NOT ALREADY COMPLETED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST

ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER

AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 03/0300Z 43.9N 31.6W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

12HR VT 03/1200Z 44.9N 25.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

24HR VT 04/0000Z 46.0N 17.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 04/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL

 

 

$$

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