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Props to Eastern US WX


Jeb
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Mike Ekster of the Upton, NY NWS office mentioned Eastern US Weather Forums in an AFD he wrote this evening.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/txtprods/OKX/AFDOKX

See also this Eastern US Weather Forums thread:

Props to this forum from NWS Upton

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=76673

 

 

 

 

000

FXUS61 KOKX 030300 CCA

AFDOKX

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY

955 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

 

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)...

 

VERY DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST ON OUR HANDS FOR TONIGHT INLAND

AS COLUMN TEMPERATURES WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH EITHER SIDE OF THE 0C

LINE. THERE'S REALLY NO TELLING AT ANY EXACT POINT IN TIME WHAT TYPE

OF PRECIP WILL BE FALLING AND EXACTLY WHERE. AS OF 02Z...REPORTS ARE

GENERALLY OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE NORTHERNMOST TEAR OF THE CWA.

HOWEVER...RAIN AND SLEET IS OCCASIONALLY MIXING IN. SOME AREAS ARE

EVEN ALL RAIN.

 

I REALLY DO NOT FORESEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THIS SCENARIO OVERNIGHT

AS LATEST RUC AND 12KM NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ISOTHERMAL

PROFILES MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...CENTERED RIGHT AROUND 0C. AT

LEAST THE NAM HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ONTO THE COLDER SOLUTION THAT IS

PLAYING OUT...AND IS NOW COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE GFS

OVERNIGHT.

 

THUS...INLAND...WILL GO WITH A FORECAST THAT PLAYS SNOW MIXED WITH

RAIN AND SLEET...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. MORE OF A SNOW

INFLUENCE SHOULD BE SEEN ABOVE 500 FT OR SO...WITH A LITTLE LESS

LOWER IN ELEVATION. I DON'T THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A

WIDESPREAD ISSUE OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 32F AND

ABOVE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING MESONET OBS FOR THOSE. AS FAR AS ACCUMS OF

SNOW AND SLEET GO...WILL GENERALLY EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS

OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCALLY 4-5...WITH LESS IN THE

ADVISORY AREA.

 

AT THE COAST...ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS

BECOMING A CONCERN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. FOLKS AT THE COAST SHOULD

NOTICE A STEADY INCREASE IN WINDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THINK

WE'LL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY BY 12Z AS LOW GETS CRANKING TO OUR

SOUTH.

 

THANKS TO ALL OUR SKYWARN SPOTTERS...TRI-STATE WEATHER MEMBERS...ERN

US WX MEMBERS...AS WELL AS GIL AT CHANNEL 8 FOR ALL YOUR TIMELY

OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING.

&&

 

.SHORT TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

 

STILL A VERY TRICKY FORECAST AS FAR AS TUESDAY GOES. MODEL SOUNDINGS

BLO 700 MB STILL VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...WITH GFS

STILL WITH A COLDER COLUMN AS A WHOLE. FOR NOW...THINKING A COLDER

SOLN LIKE THE GFS IS THE WAY TO GO...WHICH IS WHAT THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST FOLLOWED. IT MAY BE TOUGH IN SOME AREAS AS TO WHETHER OR

NOT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS WILL BE MET...BUT I THINK AT

LEAST THE LOW END OF THE 4-8" RANGE IS STILL A GOOD BET. DEPENDS HOW

MUCH SLEET/FZRA FALLS INSTEAD OF SNOW.

 

ITS HARD TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GET INTO THE

COASTAL AREAS BEFORE THE GOOD FORCING MOVES EAST. IT MAY NOT

SNOW...BUT THINK THERE COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR ICE BY

TUE EVENING EVEN AT THE COAST. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO

LOOK AT THE WHOLE SUITE OF 00Z DATA AND USE THEM TO MAKE A BETTER

DECISION THAN I CAN AT THE MOMENT (0230Z).

 

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THE STORM WILL HEAD SLOWLY OUT TO SEA ENDING

THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

 

WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM AT THE COAST TUE...WITH 975MB WINDS 50+ KT.

WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED ISOLD HWW

CRITIERA GUSTS OCCUR.

&&

 

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW

MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP LOW

PRESSURE FURTHER OFFSHORE LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THINK THIS

STILL BEARS WATCH FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AS FAR AS FROZEN

PRECIP GOES...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES.

 

SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THEN NEXT

STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY WITH ONCE AGAIN AN INCREASE IN POPS.

WILL GO CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

 

.MARINE...

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT

LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. GALE AND STORM WARNINGS ARE UP FOR VARIOUS

AREAS. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND

CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUALLY OBTAINING A MORE NORTHERLY

COMPONENT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ACT TO DRIVE SEAS TO DANGEROUS

LEVELS ON THE SOUND AND OCEAN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE EASTERLY LOW

LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ACT TO PILE WATER INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE

BAYS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NEW YORK HARBOR. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING

HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TUE NOON HIGH TIDES AND WELL AS FOR TUE

NIGHT. THE LATTER MAY BE LOWER DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY WIND

COMPONENT...BUT WITH WATER ALREADY WEDGED IN...THINKING IS THAT MANY

AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING ONCE AGAIN. A COASTAL FLOOD

WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW LONDON AND MIDDLESEX

COUNTIES IN CT WHERE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR...BUT IS

NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

 

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT INLAND

TERMINALS (KHPN/KSWF)...WHERE SNOW HAS EITHER FALLEN ON-SITE OR

NEARBY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH

OF THE REST OF THE NYC METRO AREA...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN

CT...AND SHOULD LOWER TO IFR IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MEANWHILE...WIND

SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NOW TAKING SHAPE

ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES SLOWLY

NORTHEAST...REACHING 25G40KT BY 12Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND NOT

DECREASING MUCH IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN

WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT KSWF BY 09Z BEFORE

BECOMING ALL SNOW AFTER 15Z. KHPN WILL LIKELY SEE A SIMILAR

TRANSITION BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TUE...WITH KTEB/KEWR/KBDR CHANGING FROM

RAIN TO SNOW AROUND 21Z.

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...

WE ARE FORECASTING A 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS EVENT FOR THE AREA. SIX HOUR

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 1

INCH...WHICH WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN FLOODING ALONG COASTAL

AREAS FROM METRO NJ E ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND ACROSS COASTAL CT. STAY

TUNED FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FLOOD ADVISORIES LATER

TONIGHT.

&&

 

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CTZ005>008 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

...WIND ADVISORY FOR CTZ009>012 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM

WEDNESDAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR CTZ011-012 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM

WEDNESDAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR CTZ009-010 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM

WEDNESDAY.

NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ002>004 FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO

MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NJZ006 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM

WEDNESDAY.

NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ067-068 FROM UNTIL MIDNIGHT

WEDNESDAY.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ069-070 FROM 11 PM TONIGHT

TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ072>081 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM

WEDNESDAY.

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NYZ071>081 FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM

WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330 FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY.

...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ330-350-353-355 FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM

WEDNESDAY.

...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ335-338 FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM

WEDNESDAY.

...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350-353-355 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM

TUESDAY.

&&

 

$$

 

PUBLIC...EKSTER

AVIATION...BG

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