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Dual threats in the Western Pacific Basin

7:52 p.m. ET ET Sat.,Oct.16,2004


Jonathan Erdman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel






While Floridians have certainly had enough of this 2004 tropical season, they have nothing on the storm- weary Japanese. Typhoon Tokage may become the 10th storm to threaten the island chain early next week. The previous record for most tropical cyclones to impact Japan was 6 in 1990. Tokage is expected to gradually lose steam as it moves north-northeastward toward southern Japan. However, it may still threaten southern Japan as a minimal typhoon by Tuesday or Wednesday, U.S. time. On the heels of Tokage is Tropical Storm Nock- Ten, slowly gathering strength several hundred miles ESE of Guam. Nock- Ten may become a typhoon late Sunday night or early Monday (U.S. time), then potentially threaten Guam by Tuesday or Wednesday (U.S. time). Fortunately, the Atlantic Basin continues to be quiet. An area of low pressure southwest of the Azores is non-tropical in nature, meaning tropical cyclone development is not anticipated. A couple of thunderstorm clusters in the eastern Pacific basin bear watching, but neither is expected to develop further in the next 24 hours. One cluster is being drawn northwestward about 200 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Since this cluster is being influenced by increasingly strong winds aloft, development is highly unlikely. A second disorganized cluster about 250 miles south of Acapulco is also not expected to develop further.

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