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Typhoon NOCK-TEN Update


Jeb
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WDPN32 PGTW 221500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W

/WARNING NR 35//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 271200Z2 OCT 2004.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM

SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11

KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON

221130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-

SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102

KNOTS.

B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-

WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH-

EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE EASTWARD AND A WEAKNESS IN

THE OVERALL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA IN

RESPONSE TO A TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED EASTERN CHINA BY MID

PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TCLAPS, JGSM,

JTYM, COAMPS, GFDN, UKMO, WBAR, MM5, NCEP GFS, AND NOGAPS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR. WBAR INDICATES THE

RIDGE RECEDING EASTWARD MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS

FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS

WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR.

C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W WILL REMAIN AT A NEAR CONSTANT

INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS AS IT HAS WEAK TO

MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, A GRADUAL DECREASE

IN STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-

TURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 220911Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED

SYSTEM.

E. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 28W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS

AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE

BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY

DECREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS

TO UNDERGO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.

3.FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

NNNN

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