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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Discussion 1


Jeb
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Eastern Pacific

 

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

 

000

WTPZ41 KNHC 252238

TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

3 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ARE BASED ON OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM

MAZATLAN LOCATED 130 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A PRESSURE OF

1005.4 MB FROM LA PAZ LOCATED 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH IN

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH NUMEROUS

CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NOTED.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/16. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE

NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN

APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALSO

HELP TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS

NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN

PLAINS STATES. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE GENERAL

VICINITY OF ALTATA MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 

INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALREADY ENOUGH COLD

CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH MINIMAL

TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO IT MAKING LANDFALL.

 

NOTE...THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY

RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO

LATER TONIGHT...AND INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 25/2200Z 23.3N 108.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.6N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 26/1800Z 28.6N 105.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

36HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 102.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

48HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

 

 

$$

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