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Tropical Storm JEANNE Discussion 45


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Tropical Storm JEANNE

 

000

WTNT41 KNHC 270253

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

 

DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE TAMPA...TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE...

AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D RADARS...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...

INDICATE JEANNE REMAINS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM EVEN THOUGH IT

HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE

STILL OCCURRING ON BOTH FLORIDA COASTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

NORTHEASTERN COAST. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS ARE

STILL REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO

THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ERODING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD

OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SQUALLY RAINBANDS ARE STILL LIKELY

TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT

AND TOMORROW AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN

PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE

CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND IT SHOULD

BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...OF NOT SOONER.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...JEANNE

SHOULD GRADUALLY ROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. AFTER THAT...

A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD

CAPTURE JEANNE AND TURN THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA NEAR THE VIRGINIA

CAPES AREA. TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO

OCCUR BY 96 HOURS....WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AS

THE SYSTEM GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE VIGOROUS

SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 27/0300Z 29.9N 82.8W 45 KT...INLAND

12HR VT 27/1200Z 31.6N 82.8W 35 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 28/1200Z 35.5N 80.2W 25 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 29/0000Z 37.7N 75.8W 25 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 30/0000Z 41.0N 66.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER

96HR VT 01/0000Z 43.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 02/0000Z 44.0N 47.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

 

 

$$

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