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Hawaii waves to reach 30 to 50 feet!!


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000

FZHW50 PHFO 120042

SRFHFO

 

SURF ZONE FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

300 PM HST SAT DEC 11 2004

 

HIZ005>011-110500-

OAHU-

300 PM HST SAT DEC 11 2004

 

SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 9 TO 13 FEET THIS

AFTERNOON...AND 6 TO 10 FEET SUNDAY.

 

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 4 TO 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...

AND 3 TO 6 FEET SUNDAY.

 

SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL 3 TO 6 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.

 

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.

 

OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY DEC 17:

A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SURF WELL ABOVE THE

ADVISORY LEVEL OF 15 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES MONDAY...BEFORE

DECLINING SLOWLY TUESDAY. A MUCH LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS

ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS MAY

EXCEED THE HIGH SURF WARNING LEVEL OF 25 FEET ALONG NORTH FACING

SHORES WEDNESDAY. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS

ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

 

SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES.

 

THE MOST RECENT SURF OBSERVATIONS ARE USED FOR THE INITIAL

CONDITIONS IN THE SURF FORECAST. ONCE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

RECEIVES CONSISTENT FULL-FACE OBSERVATIONS...A NEW PRODUCT WITH THE

OAHU AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS SURF OBSERVATIONS WILL BE ADDED.

 

&&

 

EXPERIMENTAL COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU

NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI

300 PM HST FRI DEC 10 2004

 

THIS EXPERIMENTAL COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY

THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT

CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL

REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST CONTENTS MORE THAN 4 DAYS OLD

WILL BE REMOVED FROM THIS PRODUCT.

 

FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT HGT WIND WIND SPD

DATE HGT DIR PD TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND

 

1 PM 10 NNW 13 SAME 22-27 NNE DOWN

12/10 8 N 8 SAME

 

SAT 8 NNW 12 DOWN HIGH 7-10 ENE DOWN

12/11 6 NNE 8 DOWN MED

 

SUN 5 NNW 11 DOWN MED 7-10 E SAME

12/12 5 NNE 9 SAME MED

3 NW 20 UP LOW

 

MON 12 NW 17 UP HIGH 7-10 E SAME

12/13 4 NNE 9 DOWN MED

 

TUE 8 NW 14 DOWN MED 7-10 E UP

12/14 3 NE 9 DOWN LOW

4 WNW 25 UP LOW

 

WED 24 NW 18 UP LOW 7-10 E SAME

12/15

 

LEGEND:

SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST

IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE

DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS

POINTS

DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS

HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)

WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN MPH LOCATED

20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE

WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS

SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

 

RECOGNIZING THAT SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES

AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE AND NOAA NATIONAL COASTAL DATA DEVELOPMENT CENTER WORKING

WITH THE SURF FORECAST TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP WILL DEVELOP

GENERAL RANGES OF SHOALING FACTORS OR OTHER FACTORS IN THE NEAR

FUTURE FOR THE ABOVE TABLE. AT THE CURRENT TIME OCEAN-GOERS CAN USE

THE SURF FORECAST AT THE TOP OF THIS MESSAGE. FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO

DETERMINE SURF HEIGHTS BASED ON THE ABOVE OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS

CAN DERIVE SHOALING FACTORS OR OTHER FACTORS FOR THEIR PARTICULAR

NEED AND LOCATION BASED UPON OPEN OCEAN SWELL FORECAST VALUES AND

THEIR PAST EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEDGE. THIS FORECAST WILL BE AN

EVOLVING PROCESS AND WILL BE IMPROVED WITH EXPERIENCE AND FEEDBACK.

 

DISCUSSION:

SUMMARY...

WINTER PATTERN OF LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME SURF EPISODES

ARRIVING BACK TO BACK.

 

DETAILED...

MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH...ROUGH SURF OUT OF 325-345

DEGREES WITH 11-15 SECONDS. WINDSWELL IS ALSO ARRIVING ON

NORTH-FACING SHORES OUT OF 340-020 DEGREES AT 4-10 SECONDS. THE

COMBINATION IS MAKING FOR CONFUSED BREAKERS. BOTH SHOULD SLOWLY

TAPER DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMED

NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED

THROUGH HAWAII YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING AWAY RESULTING IN A

FRUSTRATED FETCH...THAT IS...LIMITED...FOR THE BATCHES OF SEAS

AIMED AT HAWAII. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SMALL TO MODERATE

BREAKERS OUT OF 20-40 DEGREES WITH 8-10 SECOND PERIODS FOR SUNDAY

INTO TUESDAY.

 

THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE FROM THE KURILS TO THE LONGITUDES OF

HAWAII. THE NEXT STORM IN THE SERIES FORMED YESTERDAY. BY LAST

EVENING...THE QUIKSCAT SATELLITE SHOWED A VERY BROAD AREA OF 40-50

KNOT WINDS AIMED AT HAWAII AND TARGETS NORTH OF HAWAII. THE AGITATED

SEAS PROPAGATING TOWARD HAWAII IN THE 315-325 DEGREE SWATH ARE

GETTING CONTINUAL REINFORCEMENT OF STORM WINDS SINCE THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING EASTWARD AT ABOUT THE GROUP SPEED

OF THE WAVES. THIS CAPTURED FETCH OF 40-50 KNOT WINDS SHOULD REACH

THE DATELINE LATER TODAY. WEAKER WINDS OF 30-35 SHOULD CONTINUE

TOWARD

HAWAII LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM 320-335 DEGREES...REACHING TO

WITHIN ABOUT 800 NM OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY LOW

PRESSURE CENTER THROUGHOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS

NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE FRONT IS MODELLED TO PULL NORTH AS IT

WEAKENS NORTH OF HAWAII...THUS NEGLIGIBLE NOTICE IN LOCAL WINDS

FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

 

LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND SUNDOWN SUNDAY

FROM 315-325 DEGREES. THE EPISODE SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY IN THE

EXTRA-LARGE CATEGORY...MEANING MOST OUTER REEFS ALIVE...THEN SLOWLY

DROP OVER THE FOLLOWING 48 HOURS OUT OF 315-340 DEGREES. SURF COULD

STAY HIGH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

 

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OFF THE KURILS ON

SATURDAY...WITH EXTREME WINDS OF 50-60 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE 300-315

DEGREE BAND OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE

IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PRESENT

STORM...SITTING AROUND 45 NORTH AS IT OCCLUDES...THAT IS...REACHES

ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND STALLS IN FORWARD TRACK...LATE SATURDAY

INTO MONDAY JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE ABOUT 1500 NM OUT FROM HAWAII.

THE EXTREME WINDS CENTERED ON ABOUT 312 DEGREES PLUS OR MINUS 8

DEGREES...SHOULD HAVE A CAPTURED FETCH REACHING TO WITHIN ABOUT 1000

NM OF HAWAII BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO

PULL NORTH...SO ONLY WEAKER WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS WOULD TRACK ONWARD

TOWARD HAWAII IN THIS BAND REACHING TO WITHIN ABOUT 700 NM. THIS

SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NE AFTER

IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH MID TUESDAY.

 

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME WINDS AND A RESULTANT FETCH LENGTH

AND DURATION OF ABOUT 2000 NM OVER NEARLY 3

DAYS...RESPECTIVELY...AND REACHING TO WITHIN 1000 NM OF THE

ISLANDS...HAWAII COULD SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SURF

EXPERIENCED SINCE JANUARY 28...1998. TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS SINCE

ONE NEEDS TO MONITOR THE ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS...NOT JUST DEPEND ON

MODELS...BUT EXTRA-LARGE TO GIANT SURF SEEMS LIKELY. ESTIMATES WILL

BE MODIFIED AS THE SYSTEM PROCEEDS.

 

FORERUNNERS OF 20-25 SECONDS COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS TUESDAY

AFTERNOON. THE EPISODE IS EXPECTED RISE ABRUPTLY TUESDAY

NIGHT...WITH SURF HOLDING AT EXTREME LEVELS OUT OF 300-325

DEGREES...ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DROPPING ON THURSDAY.

 

LIGHT TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING LAND-SEA...AND

MOUNTAIN-VALLEY DIURNAL CYCLES TO DOMINATE MOST COASTAL AREAS.

 

SOUTHERN SHORES ARE MOSTLY FLAT. A TINY TO SMALL SWELL FROM 185-200

DEGREES MAY FILL IN MONDAY AND HOLDING INTO TUESDAY.

 

INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE ALEUTIAN LOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS

MODELLED TO FIRMLY ESTABLISH ITSELF COVERING A BROAD AREA FROM THE

KURILS TO THE LONGITUDES OF HAWAII. AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF

FAST-MOVING...STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM OFF JAPAN

ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MOTHER LOW TO JUST EAST OF THE

DATELINE...THEN PULL NORTH...FEEDING BACK INTO THE

MOTHER LOW. THIS SHOULD MEAN CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO GIANT

SURF LATER NEXT WEEK. WAY OUT IN THE 10-15 DAY STORM TRACK

MODELS...THIS PATTERN MAY RELAX A NOTCH LEADING INTO CHRISTMAS WITH

HINTS OF A PINCHED OFF LOW IN THE SUBTROPICS SENDING THE PRIMARY JET

BACK NORTHWARD. STORMINESS JUST SE OF NEW ZEALAND OVER THIS WEEKEND

INTO NEXT WEEK COULD HAVE SMALL SURF LOCALLY OUT OF 180-200 DEGREES

FOR THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO CHRISTMAS. MODERATE TRADES INCREASING

TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF HAWAII SHOULD BRING IN A SMALL WINDSWELL

FROM 70-90 DEGREES LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIGHT TRADES COULD HOLD

LOCALLY. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES HOLD LOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEXT

COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY...DECEMBER 13.

 

THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF

NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.

 

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:

SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP

 

$$

 

NWS FORECASTER HOUSTON ND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL

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