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Tropical Storm NORU Prognosis


Jeb
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WDPN32 PGTW 210300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W WARNING NR 14//

RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 221200Z7 DEC 2004.

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (NORU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM

EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 MULTI-

SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON

SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.

B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS 32W HAS CRESTED

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG

THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOC-

ATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEGUN AND IS

EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS

WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS

CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET, TCLAPS,

AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS

FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.

C. TS 32W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-

EASTWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS. FORE-

CAST POSITIONS DO NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.

3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/NOREN/HEILER//

NNNN

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