Jeb Posted December 21, 2004 Report Share Posted December 21, 2004 WDPN32 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W WARNING NR 14// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 221200Z7 DEC 2004. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (NORU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TS 32W HAS CRESTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOC- ATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEGUN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TS 32W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS NORTH- EASTWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS. FORE- CAST POSITIONS DO NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/NOREN/HEILER// NNNN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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