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Tropical Depression KAY 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061428 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED OCT 06 2004 KAY IS A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...AND MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS...IT IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANT LOW OF KAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 16.1N 117.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 118.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 07/1200Z 16.7N 120.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1200Z 16.7N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$

Gulf of Mexico becomes area of concern 6:47 p.m. ET ET Wed.,Oct.6,104 Anthony Diaz, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel The final advisory on Tropical Depression Kay was issued early Wednesday morning as it has developed into a drifting mass of convection over 700 miles away from the Mexican coast. A disturbance located about 700 miles WSW of Kay continues to look healthy and could become a depression within the next day or two. Thunderstorms continue to flare up in the western Gulf of Mexico. Although very widely disorganized, models continue to hint toward further development, especially along the northwest Gulf Coast. This area will be of concern as steering winds are favorable for pushing any newly formed systems east towards Florida. In the western Pacific, Ma-on has strengthened to a minimal typhoon and is forecasted to grow even stronger as it churns WNW through the Philippine Sea. Ma-on could make a run at southern Japan by Saturday (U.S. time).

More rain, more storms for the Southern Plains 6:50 P.M. ET 10/6/2004 Anthony Diaz, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel South Heavy rain and storms will continue Thursday across coastal Texas and Louisiana. Flood watches have been posted in the area making an obvious statement that these storms, though scattered, will be capable of heavy downpours. Isolated areas could see two to three inches of rain from these storms. The threat of rain will move east toward the Mississippi River as the day progresses. The rest of the Deep South remains high and dry with temperatures on par for early October. Midwest Return flow around the big east high will reach as far north as the western Great Lakes. Showers and storms will become more of a nuisance north of Interstate 70, however the potential for a heavy downpour remains. The secondary story in the region remains the abnormally warm temperatures across the High Plains. Afternoon temperatures will peak, yet again, in the 70s, which for most locations marks a 10 to 15 degree departure from average. West All is quiet, save a western front. Showers and storms which threatened the central and southern Rockies on Wednesday will push east, leaving behind a quieter Thursday. Temperatures will register slightly above average for the majority of the Great Basin. The one feature of note will be a weak cold front moving across the Northern Rockies. Expect increased cloud cover, but nothing much else in the way of precipitation or temperature changes. Those interested in volcanology will be glad to hear that viewing conditions at Mt. St. Helens will become favorable as the cloud cover thins on Thursday. Northeast High pressure is in control across the Northeast. As a weak ridge slides over the region, expect afternoon temperatures to climb above seasonable average from the Ohio Valley into New England. The interior sections of the region could see departures of up to 10 degrees. Temperatures will top out in the 70s south of the New York State Thruway. Areas north will see highs in the 50s and 60s.

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Debris piles up, tempers grow short October 6, 2004 Sean Smith @PensacolaNewsJournal.com The biggest question in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties these days is likely the one with the most elusive answer. When are the mounds of debris created in the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan going to disappear from my street? There's no simple answer, but officials are pleading with residents in both counties to be patient. Collection crews are on the way, they say. Debris and trash Separate debris to ensure pickup: Vegetative debris. Construction debris. Household garbage. Place your debris on the right-of-way in front of your property. Be certain not to hide or cover fire hydrants or block drainage ditches and gas meters. Do not place leaves or vegetative debris in plastic bags. Remove food from any refrigerated appliances being disposed. Hazardous materials such as petroleum products, paint products, asbestos, electrical transformers, tires and batteries should be taken to a Class I landfill. For more information, call the Department of Solid Waste Management: 937-2160 or see www.escambia-emergency.com or www.escambiarecycles.com. For removal of debris from state rights-of-way, call 981-3000. Escambia County: Residential debris drop-off sites are open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. seven days a week and are for vegetative/horticulture debris only. The sites are: Dickson Park, 1102 Paulding Road, Warrington; Chimes Way, 5002 Chimes Way, Pensacola; Escambia County Equestrian Center, 7750 Mobile Highway, Pensacola; Old Ensley School Park, 107 E. Detroit Blvd., Pensacola; Regency Park, 8245 Fathom Road, Pensacola; Don Sutton Park, 2320 Crabtree Church Road, Molino; Byrneville, 1707 County Road 4A, Century. City of Pensacola: The City of Pensacola Sanitation Department is asking that residents not bag yard debris before placing it curbside for collection. Bagging debris could slow its ultimate disposal. Please leave all leaves and limbs that you might bag piled at curbside. Any debris already bagged will be picked up. Santa Rosa County: The following vegetation debris only dump sites will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., seven days a week: Overdown Drive south of U.S. 98 and east of Tiger Point; Navarre YMCA property at the corner of Navarre High School Road and Pawnee Drive; Central Landfill, 6337 Dalisa Rd in Milton. Santa Rosa County has awarded a 60-day contract for debris collection and disposal. Both storm generated construction debris and vegetative debris will be picked up. Three passes will be made for curbside debris collection. Debris should be placed curbside no later than Nov. 1 to ensure pick up. Milton: Regular garbage service has resumed. Emerald Coast Utilities Authority: Picking up regular residential and commercial routes; back on commercial schedule. Collecting 75 percent of the routes. The county has three contractors working on debris pickup. Gulf Breeze: Household garbage is being picked up. Yard debris can be taken to the softball field at Shoreline Park North. Pensacola: City residents' regular household garbage collection has resumed. The first of three debris sweeps in Escambia County is expected to be completed by early November, said Mark Triplett, Escambia County director of solid waste removal. Sweeps two and three are planned, but have not been scheduled, he said. The same is true of Santa Rosa County, said Avis Whitfield, public works director. All debris from rights-of-way will be removed for each sweep to be considered finished, Triplett said. The last sweeps are expected to be completed by January, but it could take longer, officials said. "It is an ever-changing operation," Whitfield said. "We are putting crews where they are most productive," Whitfield said. "People are going to have to be a little patient. We just had a major hurricane that has been a very catastrophic event. This is more destruction than our county has ever seen. We are working on it and things are starting to take off pretty quickly." Rural, suburban and city streets across the Pensacola Bay Area are lined with large tree trunks, dead branches, leaves and construction material. Unfortunately, the stacks won't be shrinking fast enough for many residents. The numbers stack up to an enormous challenge in both counties: · In Santa Rosa County, about 90 crews -- now with a total of about 430 trucks -- are removing more than 50,000 cubic yards a day of debris. That's a pile the size of a football field stacked 30 feet high, said Whitfield. · The daily debris collected by Escambia County crews is growing to nearly twice that. About 100,000 cubic yards per day, Triplett said. So far the county contractors have removed more than 890,000 cubic yards. · In Pensacola, 63 crews in their respective zones expect to have collected 140,000 cubic yards of debris by midweek -- roughly two-thirds the yearly total collected in the city, said city spokesman Raad Cawthon. Ivan left an estimated 5 million cubic yards of vegetative debris in Escambia County and another 2 million cubic yards of other hurricane debris, Triplett said. In Pensacola, officials estimated 1.6-million cubic yards of debris -- four times the combined total left by Hurricanes Erin and Opal in 1995, Cawthon said. Debris cleanup in Escambia is expected to cost from $45 million to $60 million. The Federal Emergency Management Agency will reimburse 74 percent of the cost and the state will fund another 12.5 percent. In Santa Rosa County, initial estimates of about 2 million cubic yards of vegetative debris and 1 million cubic yards of construction debris look to be a little light -- as well as the initial estimate of $18 million to $33 million to clean it up, Whitfield said. "I would not be surprised to see totals much higher. The amount of materials we're seeing is unprecedented," Whitfield said. "Debris is difficult to estimate. It just keeps coming." Debris removal has proved dangerous, prompting Sacred Heart Children's Hospital to issue warnings. Seven-year-old Payton Larrimore died when hit by a limb during clean-up at his home near Pine Forest Road three days after the Sept. 16 hurricane. And another child was seriously injured by a fallen tree limb Thursday. At Windover Street near Garcon Point, where floodwaters from Racoon and Trout bayous gutted homes, rotting household debris is blocking roadways. "You can't even get a small car down the street. It is piled high. It stinks. The flies are everywhere," resident Linda Calhoun said. "There is nowhere else to put it. It's becoming a very bad health issue." The debris also poses a fire danger as well as a hazard for motorists and pedestrians trying to make their way through partially blocked roads with limited visibility. "It's like 8-foot canyons are lining our road," Gonzalez resident Ed Urbansky said as he described the piles along Brook Park Road and other areas. "There's no place left to put it, and I've got more stacked up in my yard." Some residents are confused over where the public-right-of-way starts. A rule-of-thumb? Check your property maps, but county rights-of-way usually extend from the curb to just inside the utility poles, Triplett said. Urbansky felt short-changed when he watched a debris contractor pick through the stacks of debris Friday on Brook Park Road. With his property stacked high with debris he can't fit into the county right-of-way. Some residents are confused over where the public-right-of-way starts. A rule-of-thumb? Check your property maps, but county rights-of-way usually extend from the curb to just inside the utility poles, Triplett said. Ash Britt, Crowder-Gulf and DRC have been hired by Escambia County to remove the debris on the county rights-of-way. In Santa Rosa County, Byrd Brothers of North Carolina has combined with Milton firm WPR. There is no charge to residents for this service, and contractors are being paid by volume. Escambia County hired a separate contractor to ensure the work gets done properly, while Santa Rosa County employees -- mostly from public works -- are handling the monitoring duties, Whitfield said. Whitfield said residents need to be patient. "Everybody is swamped. We are all spread so thin right now," Whitfield said. "I wish we could have an exact schedule. We will get to you. We can't tell people when they are going to be picked up." http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/h...9C5BC308F.shtml

Tropical Depression KAY 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060230 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004 KAY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW. GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL ABATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COMEBACK. THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ALTERNATIVELY... THE DEPRESSION COULD SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...MORE WEIGHT IS BEING PLACED ON THE BAMS MODEL WHICH IS OFTEN USEFUL FOR WEAK SYSTEMS. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER POOR...CONSISTENTLY MOVING KAY SLOWLY AND TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BAMS. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 15.5N 117.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 16.2N 122.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 16.3N 124.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 16.5N 128.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 16.5N 131.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT $$

Kay weakens in eastern Pacific 9:00 p.m. ET ET Tue.,Oct.5,2004 Kevin Roth, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Tropical Depression #14-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Kay Tuesday morning, but weakened dramtically Tuesday afternoon and was downgraded back to tropical depression status. Kay should continue to move off to the west away from land with little change in strength expected over the next 24 hours. In the western Pacific, Tropical Storm Ma-on (50 mph) is moving northward through the Philippine Sea. Ma-on is expected to take a more northwesterly course shortly and perhaps strengthen to a minimal typhoon within about 18 hours. At least for the next couple of days, no land areas are threatened by the storm. Closer to home, disturbed weather continues in the western Gulf of Mexico off the Mexican east coast from the Bay of Campeche northward. No imminent tropical development is expected in this area, however.

Chiller of a night in the Northeast 9:00 P.M. ET 10/5/2004 Kevin Roth, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Northeast Frost and freeze advisories for tonight cover much of the Northeast. But high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will encourage sunshine and rising temperatures tomorrow. Only northern Maine may be threatened by precipitation... a few sprinkles. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 50s in far northern New England (40s in the mountains of northern Maine) to the 60s over the remainder of the region. South Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to douse Texas and Oklahoma tomorrow as an influx of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico persists. Scattered or widely scattered showers and storms may also threaten Louisiana, as well as areas along and near the central Gulf Coast. Isolated showers and storms may dot the Southeast and Florida. High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in the western Carolinas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to the 80s in eastern and southern Texas, much of the Deep South and Florida. Midwest The Midwest and northern Plains tomorrow will enjoy pleasant early autumn weather--sunshine and near to above average temperatures--while the central Plains deal with scattered showers as Gulf of Mexico moisture flows northward. High temperatures will range from the 60s around the northern Great Lakes to the 80s in portions of the western Dakotas. West Scattered showers will dot the Pacific Northwest (southeastern Oregon excepted) as far east as the Bitterroot Range tomorrow. Clouds and showers will likely obscure viewing of Mount St. Helens and any eruptions Wednesday. Scattered or widely scattered showers and storms will also roam Colorado and New Mexico. Elsewhere, expect plenty of sunshine and above average temperatures. Overall, highs will range from the 50s in the Washington Cascades and areas of the Rockies to the 80s in eastern Montana and California's Central Valley to near 100 around Yuma, Ariz.

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Tropical Storm KAY 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051425 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004 THE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION TO YIELD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...2.5...AND 2.5 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND SINCE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. IN FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE REVISED DOWNWARD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11. THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT KAY'S MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 N MI TO ITS WEST. THUS FAR... DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL. GIVEN THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT SHOW A FAST ENOUGH WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST IN CASE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CORRECT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.7N 115.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.8N 117.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 14.9N 119.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W 50 KT $$

Tropical Storm Kay in eastern Pacific 11:38 a.m. ET ET Tue.,Oct.5,2004 Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel While the Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet, Tropical Storm Kay has developed in the eastern Pacific. Kay, centered over 700 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, is expected to strengthen only slowly as it churns westward. Another disturbance, located west of the depression and about 1200 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas, is becoming better organized and could blossom into a depression later today. In the western Pacific, Tropical Storm Ma-on (50 mph) is moving northward through the Philippine Sea. Ma-on is expected to take a more northwesterly course shortly and perhaps strengthen to a minimal typhoon within about 18 hours. At least for the next couple of days, no land areas are threatened by the storm. Closer to home, disturbed weather continues in the western Gulf of Mexico off the Mexican east coast from the Bay of Campeche northward. No imminent tropical development is expected in this area, however.

Frost and freeze advisories posted for Northeast 1:11 P.M. ET 10/5/2004 Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Northeast Frost and freeze advisories for tonight cover much of the Northeast. But high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will encourage sunshine and rising temperatures tomorrow. Only northern Maine may be threatened by precipitation... a few sprinkles. High temperatures are forecast to range from the 50s in far northern New England (40s in the mountains of northern Maine) to the 60s over the remainder of the region. South Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to douse Texas and Oklahoma tomorrow as an influx of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico persists. Scattered or widely scattered showers and storms may also threaten Louisiana, as well as areas along and near the central Gulf Coast. Isolated showers and storms may dot the Southeast and Florida. High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s in the western Carolinas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to the 80s in eastern and southern Texas, much of the Deep South and Florida. Midwest The Midwest and northern Plains tomorrow will enjoy pleasant early autumn weather--sunshine and near to above average temperatures--while the central Plains deal with scattered showers as Gulf of Mexico moisture flows northward. High temperatures will range from the 60s around the northern Great Lakes to the 80s in portions of the western Dakotas. West Scattered showers will dot the Pacific Northwest (southeastern Oregon excepted) as far east as the Bitterroot Range tomorrow. Scattered or widely scattered showers and storms will also roam Colorado and New Mexico. Elsewhere, expect plenty of sunshine and above average temperatures. Overall, highs will range from the 50s in the Washington Cascades and areas of the Rockies to the 80s in eastern Montana and California's Central Valley to near 100 around Yuma, Ariz.

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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050220 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004 THE DEPRESSION HAS AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH CONVECTION ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS PATTERN IS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. DESPITE THE SHEAR... EARLIER CIMSS/CIRA AMSU ANALYSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THOUGH THERE IS NO SUPPORT IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ANY AGENCY. THE DEPRESSION IS KEPT AT 30 KT WITH ALL INDICATIONS TOWARD IT BECOMING A STORM OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... 280/13. GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS POORLY INITIALIZING THE CENTER AND THE GFS/GFDL HAVING MUCH TOO SLOW OF AN INITIAL MOTION. HOWEVER A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE KEEPING IT MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. IF THIS DISTURBANCE WERE TO DEVELOP IT COULD INDUCE A MOTION A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW THE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FAST BAMS SUITE AND THE MUCH SLOWER GFDL/GFS MODELS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. SHIPS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND OVERALL UNCERTAINTY...ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.1N 113.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.3N 115.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.5N 118.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.5N 120.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W 55 KT $$

New E-PAC Depression 6:46 p.m. ET ET Mon.,Oct.4,2004 Tom Moore, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Tropical Depression 14-E has developed in the eastern Pacific bout 630 miles south of the tip of Baja California. This system should become a tropical storm but is no threat to land. Another area of disturbed weather about 1025 miles SW of the Baja may become a tropical depression soon. In the western Pacific, Tropical Storm Ma-on (40 mph) is drifting aimlessly in the Philippine Sea, but is expected to begin tracking toward the NW within the next 12 hours. Gradual strengthening is likely.

Rain around the western Gulf and chilly in the Northeast 9:00 P.M. ET 10/4/2004 Tom Moore, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Midwest Frost and freeze advisories are in effect for much of the lower Great Lakes and lower Midwest as a chilly Canadian air is expected to drift over the region. High pressure will keep the Great Lakes and lower Midwest on the chilly side on Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s, while westerly winds on the back side of the high allow the Plains and Upper Midwest to warm up. Look for high temperatures in the 70s and even low 80s on the northern Plains. Northeast The Northeast will be dry, but breezy and noticably cooler on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures expected to be well below seasonal averages, in the 40s, 50s and 60s, north to south. Tuesday will begin with an autumn chill as frost and freeze advisories are in effect for portions of New England, New York state and northeast Pennsylvania. South Much of the Southeast will enjoy a pleasant Tuesday. Farther west, however, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue in Louisiana and Texas, with a few severe storms possible in southwest Texas. High temperatures will range from about average in the Southeast to a bit below in Oklahoma and Texas. Overall, highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, although the 60s may prevail in northwest Texas, western Oklahoma, much of Tennessee and far northern North Carolina. West A flow of Gulf moisture, combined with upper air disturbances, will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over New Mexico, much of Colorado and eastern Utah. A few of the storms in Colorado and New Mexico could turn severe. Meanwhile, a Pacific front steaming eastward toward the Northwest will push showers into western Washington and extreme northwest Oregon. The rest of the region will be dry. High temperatures will range from the 50s in the higher Rockies to the 80s in California's Central Valley and the 90s in the Desert Southwest.

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