Jeb

WDPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W WARNING NR 41// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 TO 290000Z1 OCT 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY THE PASSAGE OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING ASIA, AND THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE SHARPLY BY TAU 36 IN A HIGHLY ZONAL ENVIRONMENT, AND WILL BEGIN THE INITIAL STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET, AFWA MM5, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 36 HOURS. DISPARITY EXISTS IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO VARIATION IN THE INTENSITY OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND THE ONSET TIME OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE POLEWARD CLUSTER, CONSISTING OF UKMET, NCEP GFS, AND WBAR, FORECASTS INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE INITI- ATION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. THE SECOND CLUSTER FORECASTS A STRONGER BAROCLINIC INTERACTION THAT RESULTS IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. THESE MODELS THEN TRACK THE LLCC IN A WEAK, LOW LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS, INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF TAIWAN AND THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 231835Z2 TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A 232131Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 28W TO COMPLETE EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTH OF JAPAN BY TAU 120. GFDN FORECASTS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72 FOR THE EXPOSED LLCC WHILE ABSORBING THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE CIRCULATION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CON- SENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOC- IATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST TEAM: BOWER/MENEBROKER/FUNK/JAYKOSKI// NNNN

Pacific Typhoon Nock-Ten 12:01 p.m. ET ET Sat.,Oct.23,2004 M. Ressler, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Typhoon Nock-Ten with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph is now well east of northern Luzon in the Philippines and moving northwestward. This typhoon will be closely monitored as it approaches Taiwan and then the southern most islands of Japan in the northwest Pacific Ocean as it sharply re-curves. Closer to home, there are no imminent tropical threats in either the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Basins. However, an upper-level disturbance is producing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms from the southern Caribbean to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands and then out toward the central Atlantic. Also an area of showers has developed in the Atlantic east-northeast of French Guiana. In the eastern Pacific, one disturbance south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas got pulled northward by the Southwest U.S. upper-level trough of low pressure and is adding high level moisture into Mexico and Texas. This system has pretty much fallen apart since Friday. Another tropical even farther south of Cabo San Lucas is firing convection but remains disorganized but will be monitored the next few days.

A Sunday break 7:36 p.m. ET ET 10/23/2004 M. Ressler and R. Hulecki, Meteorologists, The Weather Channel West As the cold front sags southward through Nevada, Utah and Colorado on Sunday, scattered showers and some mountain snow will linger from the northern Rockies to just north of Death Valley, the Grand Canyon and the San Juan Mountains. Snow levels will range from 3500 feet north to near 6000 feet in northwest Colorado. On Monday, showers and thunderstorms could be on the increase over the Four Corners' states (Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah) as moisture moves northward out of Mexico. Meanwhile, the next potent upper-level storm and cold front will enter the Pacific Northwest with locally heavy rains for the western portions of Washington and Oregon and heavy snow in the Cascades. Snow levels will rise ahead of the front, ranging from 4500 feet in the Washington Cascades to 6000 feet in the California Siskiyous. On Tuesday, as the front moves into the interior Northwest and slides southward through California, the heavy rains will shift down the coast and into the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys while snow levels rapidly lower and the heavy snow plasters the Sierra, adding to the several feet already on the ground. The West will be very cool and unsettled into late week. Midwest A rapidly weakening cold front will gradually exit Michigan and the eastern Ohio Valley Sunday with lingering showers. A second front will sweep eastward across the Plains and Midwest Sunday and Monday will little fanfare except for showers along the northern tier. On Tuesday as high pressure takes control of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, moisture will surge northward on increasing southerly winds around the western side of the high. Rain and some thunderstorms will rapidly develop in the eastern Missouri and western Mississippi Valleys. The region will remain unsettled through the end of the week as the next big western storm takes its time heading eastward. Temperatures will tend toward average or above average right through Friday. South The cold front will rapidly weaken on Sunday as it continues to move deeper into the South. Residual showers will shift from the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Georgia. A few thunderstorms will dot the Deep South Sunday as the front stalls from the central Georgia to eastern Texas. Above average temperatures will linger over eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley through most of the coming week and more daily record high temperatures could be set or tied. Showers and thunderstorms will mainly develop from the lower Mississippi Valley westward Monday through Friday as a new storm takes shape over the West but takes its time heading eastward. Northeast A potent storm continues to intensify off the East Coast north of Bermuda while high pressure remains locked over eastern Canada. This blocking weather pattern is leaving much of New England with more clouds, cool temperatures and blustery winds. It should be cloudy, breezy and cool with maybe some sprinkles for the second game of the World Series in Boston at Fenway Park Sunday evening. A weakening cold front will die out over New York State and the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday into Monday, spreading some showers into the region. Temperatures will remain somewhat below average into Monday. Aside from a few showers over eastern New England on Tuesday, rainfall should be minimal across the region right through Friday.

Japan looks ahead after 77 die in worst typhoon for quarter century Fri Oct 22, 1:50 PM ET TOKYO (AFP) - The death toll from Japan's worst typhoon in a quarter century rose to 77 with 14 people still missing, as the devastation forced the government to consider emergency funds and new safety measures. Typhoon Tokage, which ripped through Japan on Wednesday, also injured nearly 300 people, police said. More than 21,000 houses were flooded and 382 homes were destroyed or damaged under the force of hundreds of landslides. Japan has suffered one trillion yen (9.3 billion dollars) in damage from the storm season in which a record 10 typhoons hit the country, the government said. A survey by the Kyodo News agency found that two-thirds of the dead were aged 60 or older and many of them could not flee as Tokage rampaged through, packing winds of up to 144 kilometers (89 miles) per hour. In one dramatic incident caught on camera, rescue teams plucked 37 mostly elderly people to safety after they spent nine hours under pouring rain on the top of their flooded tour bus. Kazuo Kitagawa, the minister for land, infrastructure and transport, said the government would take a fresh look at its forecasting procedures. "We need to examine if the conventional predictions on the levels of rainfall and water volume are really relevant," Kitagawa told reporters before heading to the worst-hit regions in the south of Japan. The number of casualties from Tokage was the highest from a typhoon since October 1979 when 115 people were killed or presumed dead, a government official said. "Has the Earth gone mad?" leading daily Asahi Shimbun asked in an editorial. It noted that just before Tokage, hurricanes left more than 130 people dead in the United States and Caribbean nations. The Asahi Shimbun said the spate of disasters could be the work of global warming and called on the world to come up with ways to prevent climate change. The nine previous typhoons that have hit Japan this year caused a total of 102 deaths and left 13 missing and presumed dead. The damage from this typhoon season already exceeds the bill for weather-related damage in 2003, which amounted to 940 billion yen (8.7 billion dollars). Last year's figure included damage to crops from a cold summer. "This is very unusual. We have not seen anything like this for a long time," said a farm ministry official. Late Thursday Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said the government may put together an additional budget to rebuild. "At this moment, I am not thinking about it. But if necessary, I think it is OK to compile it," Koizumi told reporters. The government's spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda, said Friday putting together a special budget would take time and it would be preferable to find disaster spending "using existing budgets and reserves." Of the one trillion yen in damage, some 534 billion yen was from the destruction of bridges, roads and dams with the rest comprising agricultural losses. Tokage, which means lizard in Japanese, was the biggest typhoon to batter the country since 1991 when the Meteorological Agency began classifying typhoons by the size of their storm zones. At its height, Tokage had an 800-kilometer (500-mile) radius of strong winds, enough to set off more than 700 landslides and flip over trains parked before the storm. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...=1512&ncid=1112

Name: Typhoon NOCK-TEN (28W) Date: 10-23-04 Updated: 8:06 AM (00:06 UTC) 1-min.Winds Warning Date/Time (in Knots) Direction of Number (in UTC) Position Sust. Gust Movement (Kts) Status Remarks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ... 13/1130Z 06.7N/165.5E 20 25 WNW 04 TropDis TCFA 001 14/0000Z 08.7N/162.5E 25 35 W 14 TropDep Initial 002 14/0600Z 10.0N/161.4E 30 40 NW 13 TropDep Intensified 003 14/1200Z 10.4N/160.5E 30 40 WNW 10 TropDep ... 004 14/1800Z 11.0N/159.6E 30 40 WNW 11 TropDep Organizing 005 15/0000Z 11.8N/159.0E 30 40 NW 10 TropDep ... 006 15/0600Z 11.9N/158.7E 30 40 NW 06 TropDep Slowed Down 007 15/1200Z 11.5N/158.1E 30 40 W 07 TropDep Changed Course 008 15/1800Z 10.8N/159.7E 30 40 W 03 TropDep Relocated East 009 16/0000Z 11.1N/158.3E 30 40 W 06 TropDep Disorganized 010 16/0600Z 11.0N/156.5E 35 45 W 10 TropStm Upgraded 011 16/1200Z 10.9N/155.3E 40 50 W 12 TropStm Intensified 012 16/1800Z 10.3N/154.9E 45 55 SW 09 TropStm Intensified 013 17/0000Z 10.6N/154.4E 50 65 W 05 TropStm Slowed Down 014 17/0600Z 10.6N/153.8E 55 70 W 06 TropStm Intensified 015 17/1200Z 10.8N/153.2E 60 75 W 07 TropStm Bcmng Typhoon 016 17/1800Z 10.6N/152.8E 60 75 WSW 04 TropStm Slowed Down 017 18/0000Z 10.3N/152.5E 65 80 SW 04 Typhoon Upgraded 018 18/0600Z 10.2N/151.8E 75 90 WSW 05 Typhoon Small Ragged Eye 019 18/1200Z 10.1N/150.9E 85 105 W 08 Typhoon Acclrtd/Intnsfd 020 18/1800Z 10.1N/149.8E 85 105 W 11 Typhoon Accelerated 021 19/0000Z 09.8N/148.5E 85 105 W 12 Typhoon 09-NM. Eye/C,R* 022 19/0600Z 09.7N/148.0E 90 110 W 05 Typhoon CDO above Eye 023 19/1200Z 09.8N/147.1E 90 110 W 08 Typhoon Accelerated 024 19/1800Z 10.2N/146.0E 90 110 WNW 11 Typhoon Accelerated 025 20/0000Z 10.7N/145.1E 95 115 WNW 10 Typhoon Intensified 026 20/0600Z 11.6N/144.0E 95 115 NW 14 Typhoon Accelerated 027 20/1200Z 12.1N/142.6E 95 115 WNW 15 Typhoon ... 028 20/1800Z 12.6N/141.9E 95 115 NW 08 Typhoon Slowed Down 029 21/0000Z 13.4N/140.7E 95 115 NW 14 Typhoon Accelerated 030 21/0600Z 13.7N/139.2E 95 115 WNW 14 Typhoon Changed Course 031 21/1200Z 14.1N/138.3E 90 110 WNW 11 Typhoon Weakened 032 21/1800Z 14.7N/137.4E 95 115 NW 11 Typhoon Re-intensified 033 22/0000Z 15.3N/136.5E 95 115 NW 11 Typhoon ... 034 22/0600Z 15.8N/135.7E 100 125 NW 09 Typhoon Intensified 035 22/1200Z 16.4N/134.8E 100 125 NW 11 Typhoon Eye bcmng clear 036 22/1800Z 16.9N/133.8E 100 125 WNW 11 Typhoon ...

WDPN32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W /WARNING NR 35// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 271200Z2 OCT 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN- SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH- EAST. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE EASTWARD AND A WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED EASTERN CHINA BY MID PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TCLAPS, JGSM, JTYM, COAMPS, GFDN, UKMO, WBAR, MM5, NCEP GFS, AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR. WBAR INDICATES THE RIDGE RECEDING EASTWARD MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W WILL REMAIN AT A NEAR CONSTANT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS AS IT HAS WEAK TO MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERA- TURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 220911Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 28W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. 3.FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER// NNNN

Pacific Typhoon Nock-Ten 6:55 p.m. ET ET Fri.,Oct.22,2004 Tom Moore, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Typhoon Nock-Ten with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph is now well west of Guam and moving northwestward. This typhoon will be closely monitored as it approaches Taiwan and then the southern most islands of Japan in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Closer to home, there are no imminent tropical threats in either the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Basins. However, an upper-level disturbance is producing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Also areas of showers extend eastward across the tropical Atlantic. In the eastern Pacific, two tropical lows, one south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja and a second well south-southeast of southernmost Baja, show increased thunderstorm activity. The low south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas appears to be fairly well organized for the moment at least but is being ventilated by shearing winds aloft which are also bringing the moisture in over western Mexico. Moisture from this system could enhance showers and thunderstorms in Arizona and New Mexico by Sunday night and Monday.

Thunderstorms for the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley 9:09 P.M. ET 10/22/2004 Tom Moore, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel West A fairly modest cold front will streak eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Plains Saturday while its southern tail will gradually stall out from northern California to Colorado by Sunday. Elevations above 4000 to 5500 feet from southern Cascades and the mountains of northern California to the Bitterroots and Tetons in the northern Rockies could pick up 3 to 8 inches of wind-driven snow by midday Saturday. Rain showers will develop all the way down to Reno and San Francisco before the day is over. A new potent storm will hit the West Coast late Monday and Tuesday. At the same time, tropical moisture feeding northward from Baja and northwest Mexico could rapidly increase showers and thunderstorms over parts of Arizona and New Mexico by Monday. These two moisture sources will give most of the West another strong dose of heavy rain and mountain snow Tuesday into Thursday. Midwest Low pressure will send rain and some strong thunderstorms eastward from the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley into the western and central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Saturday. The stronger thunderstorms will produce some damaging wind gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes. The front will exit the eastern Ohio Valley Sunday. Behind the first system, a new front will race across the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday with a few showers and across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Monday. A stronger western storm could begin to affect the Midwest later Tuesday into Wednesday with more thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend back toward average or slightly below over the next few days. South Thunderstorms will shift eastward Saturday, extending from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. A few of the storms could have some gusty winds. The front will rapidly weaken on Sunday. Residual showers will then shift from the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will dot the Deep South Sunday as the front stalls from the central Georgia to eastern Texas. Above average temperatures that resulted in record heat around Houston this week will linger over eastern Texas and Louisiana well into the coming week. Showers and thunderstorms will mainly develop from the lower Mississippi Valley westward Monday through Thursday as a new storm takes shape over the West. Northeast A potent storm will intensify well off the East Coast this weekend while high pressure remains locked over eastern Canada, leaving the Northeast with some clouds and cool temperatures. The clouds may again give way to some sunshine in some parts of New York, New England and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. It should be quite cool but dry for the first game of the World Series in Boston on Saturday evening. Looking ahead into the weekend, a weakening cold front will slide over New York State and the Mid-Atlantic later Sunday into Monday, spreading some showers into the region. The storm off the East Coast may increase the northeast winds over Southern New England by Monday. Clouds could remain a problem especially over coastal areas into the coming week. Temperatures will remain somewhat below average into Monday.

My Wikipedia forum can be enjoyed here: http://s8.invisionfree.com/WikiBoard/index.php?act=idx

World Peace http://pinkfloydfrost.bravejournal.com/ Liz's Journal http://lizgloss.bravejournal.com/ KBen's Web Journal http://kevinbenebberly.bravejournal.com/ http://bw0250.bravehost.com/

Yeah I got carried away with Bravenet Blog fever again, I'll be listing every Bravenet Blog here! Stand by as the List gets longer and longer!! Starburst http://eskimokay.bravejournal.com/ Jon's Web Journal http://chiemps.bravejournal.com/ wdhiii.bravejournal.com/ phoebegal's daily musings http://phoebegal.bravejournal.com/ Louis Twinn http://louistwinn.bravejournal.com/ STRANGE MUSINGS OF STRANGECLOUD http://strangecloud.bravejournal.com/ BiPolrFrenzy's Daily Musings http://bipolrfrenzy.bravejournal.com/ Our Christian Life Web Journal http://calledservant.bravejournal.com/ Amy's Web Journal http://dumbgirl.bravejournal.com/ katy's Journal http://kurlyqs.bravejournal.com/

Please see this page: http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/hurric.../beachmap.shtml

Typhoon Nock-Ten 2:51 p.m. ET ET Thu.,Oct.21,2004 M. Ressler, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel What was once Typhoon Tokage is now extratropical and well away from Japan. Unfortunately Tokage claimed the lives of over 60 people in Japan as torrential rains over saturated ground resulted in mudslides. Tokyo reported wind gusts to 55 mph as Tokage passed by. Meanwhile, Typhoon Nock-Ten, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, is now west of Guam and moving northwestward and will be closely monitored as it approaches islands in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Closer to home, there are no imminent tropical threats in either the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Basins. However, an upper-level disturbance is producing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Also areas of showers extend eastward across the tropical Atlantic. In the eastern Pacific, a tropical low lurks well southwest of the southern tip of Baja but southwest shear from the Southwest U.S. storm will prevent any development.

Storm heads east 2:30 P.M. ET 10/21/2004 M. Ressler, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel West The deep upper-air storm system will trek northeastward from Southern California and northern Baja, through the Four Corners' states and into the Plains by Friday afternoon. The rain and mountain snow will shift from Utah and Arizona into Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico before coming to an end by Friday night. The heavy snowfall over the Wasatch will shift into the Colorado Rockies where, as snow levels drop to 7500 feet, elevations above 8000 feet could pick up between 1 and 2 feet of the white stuff. Gusty winds will cause drifting. Rainfall will range from .5 to 1.5 inches over the lower elevations of the Four Corners’ region. Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will linger across Idaho and Montana into Friday morning. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below average across the region to end the workweek and for most of the West right through the weekend and into next week. Right on the heels of the big storm, a new Pacific cold front will enter Washington and Oregon Friday with a new round of rain and mountain snow. While the northern showery portion of the front zips eastward across the northern Rockies and northern high Plains Saturday, the southern portion will stall from northern California to northern Colorado by Sunday. The next potent storm will hit the West Coast later Monday and Tuesday. Midwest While Michigan and the Ohio Valley could see some locally dense fog Friday morning, the Plains and Mississippi valley will turn very active as a deepening low pressure area and strong cold front take aim on the Midwest. Gusty southerly winds will cause a warm front, Gulf moisture and above average temperatures to surge northward through the Mississippi Valley toward the Canadian border. Severe thunderstorms will likely develop from Minnesota and Wisconsin to eastern Kansas and Missouri. Damaging wind gusts will be the greatest threat, but some tornadoes and hail are also possible. As the cold front shifts eastward Saturday, Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley could see some strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The front will exit the eastern Ohio Valley by Sunday. Immediately behind it, a new front will race across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday with a few showers. A new western storm could begin to affect the Midwest later Tuesday into Wednesday with more thunderstorms. South More record and near-record heat is expected in eastern and southern Texas Friday. With temperatures in the low to middle 90s and persistent humid conditions, locations including Houston will again see dangerous heat indices near 100 degrees. From Arkansas and the western two-thirds of Tennessee to the northern Gulf Coast, highs will be 5 to 15 degrees above average on Friday with temperatures in places like Little Rock and Memphis approaching record levels. Elsewhere in the South, highs will be near to only slightly above seasonal averages through the end of the workweek. Overall, highs are forecast to range from the 60s in northern North Carolina to the 90s in eastern and southern Texas. After another foggy start from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward, Friday will turn active west of the Mississippi. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be on the increase over the southern Plains ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms will rapidly shift eastward Saturday, extending from the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas. A few thunderstorms will dot the Deep South Sunday as the front stalls from the southern Appalachians to the Texas-Oklahoma Red River Valley. Northeast Clouds will again dominate the Northeast Friday morning, but the sun will fight to break through at least in spots later in the day. Daytime temperatures (3 to 8 degrees below average) will range from the 40s in northern Maine to the 60s in the Virginias. Already by Saturday night, showers to be encroaching from the west, reaching western New England by late Sunday. The once strong cold front will weaken as it moves from the Midwest into the region late in the weekend.

WOW, What an informative link!! Just go to the page and click on Floyd. Wow is all I can say! http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurricanes/nc_book.html

Jeremy's The Rock's Web Page: http://www.geocities.com/therock18112002/ NCbird's website, NC's Tropical Storm & Hurricane History : http://nctropics.com/ Zack's Weather Website: http://atlantictropics0.tripod.com/ World Wide Weather http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/ December 29 2004 new links: JetStream - An Online Weather School Topic Matrix http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/matrix.htm Delhi, New York Weather WebCam http://wewilliams.com/webcam/ Mid Atlantic Weather Column website http://www.geocities.com/midatlanticwx/ CapitalWeather.com http://www.capitalweather.com/ Stormtrack.org http://www.stormtrack.org/ Stormtrack.org's Forums http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/index.php Storm Chasing Handbook http://www.weathergraphics.com/chasing/index.htm National Storm Chaser Convention Information Site http://chaserconvention.com/site/index.php? Craig Maire II's Supercell Stalker website http://supercellstalker.com/index.html DryLine Hosting http://drylinehosting.com/ DryLine Hosting Forum http://drylinehosting.com/forum/ The WeatherPrediction.Com http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ The WeatherPrediction.com Lounge (This is their Forums) http://www.theweatherprediction.com/bboard/index.php The WeatherPrediction.com's NWS Forecast Discussion Jargon page http://www.theweatherprediction.com/jargon/ JetStream - An Online Weather School: Weather Acronyms http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/append/acronyms_a.htm ---

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Uk Wikipedians' notice board http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:UK_...27_notice_board

I came across this site tonight.... http://www.mcwalter.org/

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Typhoon NOCK-TEN (28W) Date: 10-21-04 Updated: 10:50 AM (02:50 UTC) 1-min.Winds Warning Date/Time (in Knots) Direction of Number (in UTC) Position Sust. Gust Movement (Kts) Status Remarks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ... 13/1130Z 06.7N/165.5E 20 25 WNW 04 TropDis TCFA 001 14/0000Z 08.7N/162.5E 25 35 W 14 TropDep Initial 002 14/0600Z 10.0N/161.4E 30 40 NW 13 TropDep Intensified 003 14/1200Z 10.4N/160.5E 30 40 WNW 10 TropDep ... 004 14/1800Z 11.0N/159.6E 30 40 WNW 11 TropDep Organizing 005 15/0000Z 11.8N/159.0E 30 40 NW 10 TropDep ... 006 15/0600Z 11.9N/158.7E 30 40 NW 06 TropDep Slowed Down 007 15/1200Z 11.5N/158.1E 30 40 W 07 TropDep Changed Course 008 15/1800Z 10.8N/159.7E 30 40 W 03 TropDep Relocated East 009 16/0000Z 11.1N/158.3E 30 40 W 06 TropDep Disorganized 010 16/0600Z 11.0N/156.5E 35 45 W 10 TropStm Upgraded 011 16/1200Z 10.9N/155.3E 40 50 W 12 TropStm Intensified 012 16/1800Z 10.3N/154.9E 45 55 SW 09 TropStm Intensified 013 17/0000Z 10.6N/154.4E 50 65 W 05 TropStm Slowed Down 014 17/0600Z 10.6N/153.8E 55 70 W 06 TropStm Intensified 015 17/1200Z 10.8N/153.2E 60 75 W 07 TropStm Bcmng Typhoon 016 17/1800Z 10.6N/152.8E 60 75 WSW 04 TropStm Slowed Down 017 18/0000Z 10.3N/152.5E 65 80 SW 04 Typhoon Upgraded 018 18/0600Z 10.2N/151.8E 75 90 WSW 05 Typhoon Small Ragged Eye 019 18/1200Z 10.1N/150.9E 85 105 W 08 Typhoon Acclrtd/Intnsfd 020 18/1800Z 10.1N/149.8E 85 105 W 11 Typhoon Accelerated 021 19/0000Z 09.8N/148.5E 85 105 W 12 Typhoon 09-NM. Eye/C,R* 022 19/0600Z 09.7N/148.0E 90 110 W 05 Typhoon CDO above Eye 023 19/1200Z 09.8N/147.1E 90 110 W 08 Typhoon Accelerated 024 19/1800Z 10.2N/146.0E 90 110 WNW 11 Typhoon Accelerated 025 20/0000Z 10.7N/145.1E 95 115 WNW 10 Typhoon Intensified 026 20/0600Z 11.6N/144.0E 95 115 NW 14 Typhoon Accelerated 027 20/1200Z 12.1N/142.6E 95 115 WNW 15 Typhoon ... 028 20/1800Z 12.6N/141.9E 95 115 NW 08 Typhoon Slowed Down 029 21/0000Z 13.4N/140.7E 95 115 NW 14 Typhoon Accelerated

Typhoon TOKAGE (27W) Date: 10-21-04 Updated: 6:36 AM (22:36 UTC) 1-min.Winds Warning Date/Time (in Knots) Direction of Number (in UTC) Position Sust. Gust Movement (Kts) Status Remarks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ... 11/1730Z 11.4N/152.5E 20 25 W 05 TropDis TCFA 001 12/1200Z 13.6N/148.3E 30 40 WNW 15 TropDep Initial 002 12/1800Z 14.0N/145.4E 35 45 W 22 TropStm Upgraded Off Rota 003 13/0000Z 14.2N/143.8E 45 55 W 16 TropStm Slowed Down 004 13/0600Z 14.3N/142.0E 50 65 W 17 TropStm Intense CDO Builds 005 13/1200Z 14.1N/140.3E 60 75 W 17 TropStm Intensified 006 13/1800Z 13.9N/139.0E 70 90 W 13 Typhoon Upgraded 007 14/0000Z 13.7N/138.1E 80 100 WSW 09 Typhoon Slowed Down 008 14/0600Z 13.7N/137.5E 80 100 W 06 Typhoon ... 009 14/1200Z 13.9N/136.5E 80 100 WNW 09 Typhoon Accelerated 010 14/1800Z 14.4N/136.1E 90 110 NW 06 Typhoon Intensified 011 15/0000Z 14.8N/135.6E 100 125 NW 06 Typhoon Intensified 012 15/0600Z 15.1N/134.7E 100 125 WNW 08 Typhoon Changed Course 013 15/1200Z 15.5N/134.4E 100 125 NW 06 Typhoon Slowed Down 014 15/1800Z 15.8N/134.1E 100 125 NW 04 Typhoon ... 015 16/0000Z 16.4N/134.0E 100 125 NNW 05 Typhoon Small Eye Seen 016 16/0600Z 17.6N/134.0E 110 135 N 10 Typhoon Small Ragged Eye 017 16/1200Z 18.3N/133.1E 120 145 NW 08 Typhoon 15-NM. Eye/S* 018 16/1800Z 18.6N/132.5E 120 145 NW 07 Typhoon Slowed Down 019 17/0000Z 19.1N/132.0E 125 150 NW 07 Typhoon Near STY Status 020 17/0600Z 19.8N/131.1E 125 150 NW 11 Typhoon Accelerated 021 17/1200Z 20.1N/130.1E 115 140 WNW 11 Typhoon Weakened 022 17/1800Z 20.9N/129.0E 115 140 NW 13 Typhoon Weak Ragged Eye 023 18/0000Z 21.7N/128.2E 105 130 NW 11 Typhoon Weakened 024 18/0600Z 22.2N/127.5E 95 115 NW 08 Typhoon Eyewall Collapse 025 18/1200Z 23.0N/126.9E 95 115 NW 10 Typhoon Eyewall Reformed 026 18/1800Z 23.6N/126.9E 90 110 N 06 Typhoon Changed Course 027 19/0000Z 24.8N/127.2E 80 100 NNE 12 Typhoon Recurving/Weakened 028 19/0600Z 25.9N/127.9E 75 90 NNE 13 Typhoon Over Okinawa 029 19/1200Z 27.3N/128.8E 70 85 NNE 16 Typhoon Acclertd/Weakened 030 19/1800Z 29.0N/130.4E 65 80 NE 22 Typhoon Bcmng Extratrop 031 20/0000Z 31.4N/132.1E 60 75 NNE 28 TropStm Downgraded 032 20/0600Z 33.1N/133.3E 55 70 NNE 20 TropStm Over Shikoku 033 20/1200Z 35.8N/137.1E 40 50 NE 34 TropStm Over Honshu 034 20/1800Z 37.2N/139.7E 30 40 NE 25 TropDep XTT/Final Log

Tokage leaves Japan 6:00 p.m. ET ET Wed.,Oct.20,2004 Buzz Bernard and M. Ressler, Senior Meteorologists, The Weather Channel Tropical Depression Tokage, in the western Pacific, is becoming rapidly extratropical as it heads eastward away from Japan and the final advisory has been issued on this system. Tokyo reported wind gusts to 55 mph when Tokage passed by. Meanwhile, strengthening Typhoon Nock-Ten (110 mph) passed south of Guam Wednesday morning (U. S. time) and is now swirling northwestward into the Philippine Sea. Peak winds on Guam were only in 30-to-35-mph range. Closer to home, there are no imminent tropical threats in either the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Basins.

More heavy rain and snow for parts of West 9:45P.M. ET 10/20/2004 Buzz Bernard and M. Ressler, Senior Meteorologists, The Weather Channel West A deep upper-air trough moving slowly from California toward the Four Corner's states is shifting the heavy rain eastward from L. A., San Diego and Las Vegas into Utah and Arizona. Farther north, heavy snow will continue to fall in the mountains of the Interior West, especially in Utah and western Colorado. The heaviest snow is likely in the mountains of southern Utah and the San Juans of Colorado. Only scattered rain and mountain snow showers are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Montana. Meanwhile, most of California, western Nevada and New Mexico should enjoy dry weather on Thursday. Temperatures, by and large, will continue to run below mid-autumn averages from the Rockies west. South More record or near-record heat is expected in eastern and southern Texas Thursday. Elsewhere in the South, maxima will be near to only slightly above seasonal expectations. Overall, highs are forecast to range from the 60s in northern North Carolina to the 90s in eastern and southern Texas (and adjacent parts of Oklahoma and Louisiana). Areas west of the Mississippi will remain dry, while widely scattered showers and thundershowers are expected to dot the southern Appalachians, Alabama, southern Georgia and the Gulf Coast States from southeast Louisiana to Florida. Morning fog may shroud parts of the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians and adjacent piedmont areas during the morning. Northeast Cool, cloudy weather will cloak much of the Northeast Thursday, but precipitation should be limited. A little drizzle from an onshore flow may dampen portions of the Middle Atlantic States; and widely scattered showers from an upper-air disturbance may dot western New England, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Morning fog may also add to the gloom from Lake Ontario southward to West Virginia and western Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay region. High temperatures will range from the 40s in portions of Upstate New York and northern New England to the 60s on the Delmarva Peninsula and in much of Virginia. Midwest Except for a few showers in northern North Dakota and morning fog in the Ohio Valley Thursday, the Great Plains and Midwest should be graced by dry weather. Temperatures will be a bit above average for the season with highs mostly in the 50s, 60s and 70s, north to south. A few readings in the low 80s are possible in southern Kansas and southwest Missouri.